Evaluating Oklahoma City’s Expectations a Month Away From Preseason Tip-Off

After a year of over performing, many people around the NBA are understandably high on the Thunder’s young core. What should expectations look like?

The Thunder shattered expectations a season ago, going from the No. 2 pick in the lottery to a play-in team in the postseason. Before the season started, Oklahoma City was expected to win under 25 games, and the team was still considered a few years away from truly competing.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other plans, however. Oklahoma City’s top prospect took a leap to superstardom and entered his name in the annual MVP conversation. He averaged 31.4 points per game while qualifying for his first All-Star team and earning All-NBA First Team honors. His meteoric rise was the biggest reason Oklahoma City over-performed — but certainly not the only reason.

Best Case: 50-32

Oklahoma City’s young core takes another major leap. Josh Giddey’s 3-point shot improves and his assertive mindset from Team Australia translates over. Jalen Williams continues his post All-Star break surge and his efficiency stays sky-high. Gilgeous-Alexander maintains his MVP-level of play and the Thunder have the perfect mix of offensive firepower and defensive grit.

Chet Holmgren gives the Thunder both a lob threat and a defensive anchor. Holmgren and Lu Dort form an elite one-two defensive punch on the interior and the perimeter.

If all things click and Oklahoma City’s studs continue to grow together, the sky’s the limit for this team.

Worst Case: 37-45

The Thunder take a disappointing step back from a season ago, unable to build on serious momentum heading into the off-season. Gilgeous-Alexander stars on the floor, but has trouble staying fully healthy throughout the entirety of the season. When he misses games, Oklahoma City struggles in a big way.

It takes the team a few months to fully integrate Holmgren into the lineup. Oklahoma City’s best stretches happened without a center a season ago, and the growing pains last longer than expected. Josh Giddey’s leap isn’t as big as expected, and he replicates his performance from a season ago. Williams fulfills his role as a slasher, but his 3-point percentage dips and the Thunder’s floor spacing suffers because of it.

The Thunder’s bench can’t seem to get comfortable and the outside shooting simply isn’t there. The team heads into the off-season with a few hard questions to answer about the longterm ceiling of the roster.

Realistic Case: 46-36

The Thunder end up somewhere in the middle of the two projections above, but much closer to the best case scenario rather than the worst case. Oklahoma City’s young stars will struggle with inconsistency, but there’s so many top-tier prospects that they can pick up the slack for each other.

It'll take some time to get used to Holmgren on the floor, but once it clicks, the sky's the limit. Giddey and Williams could ascend to stardom at any point over the course of the season — and maybe sooner rather than later. If the Thunder find production from its second unit, this thing could ramp up in a hurry.

They key to the Thunder's operation is clearly Gilgeous-Alexander, and the season relies on his health first and foremost. An injury could derail everything. Assuming he stays healthy, though, the Thunder seem to be in a prime position to take the next step in its rebuild. Playoff games in Oklahoma City should be a goal, and it's certainly attainable.

If everything goes according to the plan, it should be an exciting season for Thunder fans. If Oklahoma City secures a spot in the postseason, anything can happen — especially with a player like Gilgeous-Alexander.

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