Solid sample size of Timberwolves regaining status as one of NBA's best teams

Not to jinx it, but there are reasons to believe the Minnesota Timberwolves are turning a corner and are poised to become one of the hottest teams in the NBA.

Minnesota began showing signs of improvement when Donte DiVincenzo replaced Mike Conley in the starting lineup on Jan. 6. They rattled off three straight wins against the Clippers, Pelicans, and a shorthanded Magic team. A narrow two-point loss to Memphis was followed by a win over the Wizards and then a one-point loss to the Warriors. Minnesota then dominated the Knicks in New York before dropping back-to-back games to the Cavaliers and Grizzlies.

Now, after two consecutive wins over the Mavericks and Nuggets, head coach Chris Finch is seeing more consistent performances from his team. On Monday morning, Finch told KFAN radio's Paul Allen that he thought the Wolves played complete games against the Knicks, Mavericks, and Nuggets, while coming close to complete performances in both losses to Memphis.

"We are, at times, our own worst enemy. But those periods of play are happening less and less right now, which is really encouraging," Finch said.

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Since Jan. 6, the Timberwolves are 7-4. During this span, their 118.1 offensive rating ranks seventh in the NBA, while their 111.7 defensive rating is 10th. That results in a net rating of +6.4, good for eighth in the league.

One of the key factors behind their improvement has been winning the possession battle. Finch compared the NBA to the NFL, referencing Sunday’s NFC Championship game, where the Commanders lost the turnover battle 0-3 and were blown out by the Eagles. He noted that without those turnovers, the game might have been completely different.

"For much of December, we were losing the possession battle on a nightly basis," Finch explained. "It's just kind of basketball mathematics."

In basketball, winning the possession battle comes down to rebounding and turnovers. Giving up offensive rebounds and turning the ball over gives opponents more opportunities to score. Conversely, when the Timberwolves control those areas, they gain an advantage.

Since Jan. 6, Minnesota ranks ninth in the NBA with 1,069 offensive possessions, a significant improvement from their 28th-place ranking through Jan. 5. The gains are also evident in offensive rebounding and turnover rate. Through Jan. 5, they ranked 19th in offensive rebounding percentage (28%), but since then they’ve climbed to sixth (33.1%). Additionally, their turnover rate has improved from 24th in the league (16.2%) through Jan. 5 to 18th (14.6%) since.

However, defensive rebounding remains an area for improvement. Since Jan. 6, the Wolves have grabbed just 67.7% of defensive rebounds, which ranks 26th in the league—a decline from their 71.1% rate (15th in the league) prior to Jan. 6.

Overall, both the offense and defense are operating at high levels. If the Timberwolves can shore up their defensive rebounding, they could start winning games more comfortably rather than hanging on for dear life in the final minutes.