Is Timberwolves' turnover rate or offensive, defensive ratings a better predictor of playoff success?
What serves as a better predictor for postseason success in the NBA: turnover rate, offensive rating or defensive rating?
They're just three of an unlimited number of variables that go into predicting success, but when we isolate the three it's clear that there is a premium on a team's defensive acumen rather than a team's ability to take care of the basketball, though offensive rating might be the ultimate predictor.
First, let's look at the teams in the NBA Finals the past ten seasons and where they ranked in turnover rate during the regular season (see below).
2022-23 NBA Finals: Nuggets over Heat
- Nuggets: 23rd at 14.7%
- improved to 12.1% in playoffs
- Heat: 13th at 13.8%
2021-22 NBA Finals: Warriors over Celtics
- Warriors: 29th at 15.0%
- improved to 14.9% in playoffs
- Celtics: 13th at 13.9%
2020-21 NBA Finals: Bucks over Suns
- Bucks: 13th at 13.4%
- improved to 13.0% in playoffs
- Suns: 4th at 12.6%
2019-20 NBA Finals: Lakers over Heat
- Lakers: 22nd at 14.9%
- worsened to 15.8% in playoffs
- Heat: 22nd at 14.9%
2018-19 NBA Finals: Raptors over Warriors
- Raptors: 14th at 13.8%
- improved to 12.4% in playoffs
- Warriors: 16th at 13.9%
2017-18 NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers
- Warriors: 25th at 15.3%
- improved to 13.1% in playoffs
- Cavaliers: 9th at 13.9%
2016-17 NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers
- Warriors: 20th at 14.6%
- improved to 13.5% in playoffs
- Cavaliers: 11th at 14.0%
2015-16 NBA Finals: Cavaliers over Warriors
- Cavaliers: 13th at 14.3%
- improved to 13.7% in playoffs
- Warriors: 18th at 15.0%
2014-15 NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers
- Warriors: 11th at 14.5%
- worsened to 15.25 in playoffs
- Cavaliers: 19th at 15.2%
2013-14 NBA Finals: Spurs over Heat
- Spurs: 9th at 15.0%
- improved to 13.4% in playoffs
- Heat: 22nd at 15.9%
Summary: The Warriors are a terrific example of how unimportant turnover rate is during the regular season because they were better than 20th in the league at taking care of the ball in just one of their four championship runs. Denver is another good example as they were 23rd in turnover rate last season. What is somewhat notable below is that eight of the past 10 champions improved their turnover rate in the playoffs.
Jan 27, 2024; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Devin Vassell (24) shoots over Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels (3) during the first half at Frost Bank Center.
Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Now let's look at where each of the past 10 champs ranked defensively during the regular season.
NBA champion defensive ratings last 10 years
- 2022-23: Nuggets, 15th
- 2021-22: Warriors, 2nd
- 2020-21: Bucks, 9th
- 2019-20: Lakers, 3rd
- 2018-19: Raptors, 5th
- 2017-18: Warriors, 11th
- 2016-17: Warriors, 2nd
- 2015-16: Cavaliers, 10th
- 2014-15: Warriors, 1st
- 2013-14: Spurs, 4th
Summary: Only two of the last ten champions didn't have a top-10 defense, and only by the slimmest of margins as the Nuggets last season and the 2017-18 Warriors were just outside the top 10.
All of this information bodes well for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who hold the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA this season while boasting the second worst turnover rate in the league.
If Minnesota can cut down on turnovers it will certainly be a plus, but no one can look at the last decade and suggest that turnover rate has much to do with postseason success.
Yeah, but what about offensive ratings of NBA champs?
Let's take a look while keeping in mind that Minnesota's offensive rating is 19th in the league through 46 games.
- 2022-23: Nuggets, 5th
- 2021-22: Warriors, 16th
- 2020-21: Bucks, 5th
- 2019-20: Lakers, 11th
- 2018-19: Raptors, 5th
- 2017-18: Warriors, 3rd
- 2016-17: Warriors, 1st
- 2015-16: Cavaliers, 3rd
- 2014-15: Warriors, 2nd
- 2013-14: Spurs, 5th
How far back to do we have to go to find a team ranked 19th or lower on offense that won a title? Not very far. The Mavericks did it 2011-12 with the league's 22nd-ranked offense.
- 2012-13: Heat, 1st
- 2011-12: Mavericks, 22nd
Summary: It's a much higher-scoring league now than it was when Dirk Nowitzki was battling LeBron James in James' age-27 season. That's why Minnesota's offensive firepower is more concerning than their turnover rate and perhaps a better indicator of postseason success/failure than their elite defensive rating.
