What Is Gary Trent Jr.'s Real Value On Defense?
Gary Trent Jr.'s elite three-point shooting ability makes him a valuable rotation player all by itself. Most exciting about his improvement this season isn't just Trent adding more versatility to his long-range jumper, but how he's managed to exploit defenses trying to take it away by doing work from mid-range.
He'll never be a primary ball handler, and asking him to run a team's second unit or merely commit to getting his teammates more involved will probably lead to diminishing returns. All players have weaknesses, though, and Trent's relative ones aren't nearly enough to render the ripples of his strengths moot. He'll be an impact player offensively for years to come.
But what will most inform his long-term ceiling is Trent's play on the other side of the ball. And unfortunately, the perceived defensive promise he showed after first breaking into the rotation last season is nowhere to be found in 2020-21.
The advanced numbers aren't exactly kind to any player on Portland's roster. Still, you can cherry-pick a few stats on the Blazers' better defenders to affirm both those reputations and the eye test.
Robert Covington, for instance, ranks fourth in the league with 3.5 deflections per game. Derrick Jones Jr. leads Portland's available players in defensive real plus-minus. Before going down with a broken wrist, Jusuf Nurkic allowed 52.4 percent shooting at the rim, per NBA.com/stats, a number on par with Joel Embiid's.
There just isn't any hard data out there supporting the perception of Trent as a quality defender this season.
Offensive players are shooting 1.6 percent better against Trent than expected, per NBA.com/stats, fourth-worst on the Blazers. The solid steal rate he posted a year ago has dipped to well below-average. All-encompassing numbers like DRPM and FiveThirtyEight's defensive RAPTOR portray Trent as a bottom-tier defender among shooting guards, ranking near the likes of Malik Beasley and Zach LaVine – not exactly stoppers.
Stats were more favorable to Trent in 2019-20, but didn't suggest he was a true difference-maker defensively. Film, especially from the bubble, is what earned Trent a positive defensive reputation.
Even then, his natural limitations as a help defender and ho-hum steal and block totals made it seem analytics would perpetually underrate his impact. Advanced defensive metrics long indicated Klay Thompson was overrated on that end; no one mentioned them when he hounded opposing point guards and seamlessly switched onto bigs on a nightly basis while helping the Warriors to titles.
But with Jones chasing primary ball handlers and Covington dealing with bigger wings, Trent is no longer Portland's top option defending opposing stars. That's a good thing, obviously; a team can't have too many viable one-on-one defenders. What's troubling about Trent's role on defense this season is that he's often not guarding the other team's best player even when Jones and Covington aren't, either.
Portland regularly put Damian Lillard, who should be shouldering the lightest defensive burden possible, on Devin Booker and Luka Doncic in recent games, while Trent was stashed on Mikal Bridges and Josh Richardson, respectively. The Blazers' staff even had Rodney Hood, still getting acclimating after rupturing his Achilles last season, guard Chris Paul and Jamal Murray instead of Trent.
It's not like Bridges, Richardson, E'Twaun Moore and Monte Morris went off on Trent. For the most part, they didn't even challenge him. There's value in not being preyed on by role players, of course, but those guys are never asked to consistently drive offense for a reason.
Coaching's been a hot-button topic in Rip City of late, and individual defensive matchups are largely decided pregame. Terry Stotts knew that Lillard and Hood would take the toughest defensive assignments when they were on the floor with Trent.
He's still spent some time this season checking the league's best players, though. It just hasn't gone very well. The reasons why are varied, but the biggest one is Trent's inability to stay attached to the ball handler while navigating picks. His point-of-attack pressure is lacking compared to last season, regularly affording his man extra space to operate and leaving him behind the play.
Look at how Trent, playing steps off the ball, opens his hips as he prepares to get over the top of coming screens. You just can't give NBA stars that runway unencumbered and expect the defensive string to hold from there.
It's no surprise Trent's defensive intensity has at least somewhat waned. An uptick in usage almost always comes with a tradeoff on defense, and rightfully so. Creating shots in this league is hard, and Trent's usage is up several points this season.
But even on defensive possessions where his motor is really revving, Trent's physical shortcomings against stars become readily apparent.
That's about as well as Trent could possibly defend, but it still didn't matter – and that's the problem. Booker, no physical marvel compared to his mega-talented peers, is stronger, longer, quicker and more explosive than Trent. What star ball handler doesn't own a similar physical advantage against him?
It bears stressing that Trent isn't a minus defender in the grand scheme. There's even a chance he proves competitive enough, stout enough and active enough to be in a true contender's closing five. If all-world alpha dogs like LeBron James, Doncic and Kawhi Leonard go matchup-hunting for Trent in crunchtime of big games, that's probably a strategy with which the defense can live.
But after a full season of rotation minutes between now and last January, it's become clear Trent likely tops out as a slightly above-average defender – no criticism. It's hard for guards absent the physical tools to reliably stick with point guards or battle big wings to be anything less than a weak link on defense.
Portland, obviously, would be much better off if Trent was more than that. The realization he's not – but is clearly a starting-caliber player regardless – will play a huge part in the trajectory of not just Trent's future, but the Blazers', too.