The Defining Stretches of Portland's Tough Second-Half Schedule
The NBA released its post-All-Star break schedule on Wednesday, setting the stage for a frantic final two months of play leading into the playoffs.
The Trail Blazers will play a whopping 37 games over 67 days from March 11 to May 16. They have 10 back-to-backs, 19 home games and four two-game "sets" against the same team. Accounting for quality of competition, rest time and home versus road games, Positive Residual ranks Portland's remaining schedule as the fifth-toughest in all of basketball.
Needless to say, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, both slated to return sometime shortly after the break, can't get back in the lineup soon enough. These are the most defining stretches of the Blazers' second half.
March 13 to March 18: Sets with Minnesota and New Orleans
There's no sugarcoating it. Finding "easy" stretches of Portland's remaining schedule is a futile exercise. In a loaded Western Conference, where four-and-a-half games separate fifth place from 11th, a world exists in which the Blazers – despite getting McCollum and Nurkic back – take a steep tumble down the standings, fighting for their postseason lives in the play-in tournament.
All the more reason, then, that Portland needs to bank a pair of wins against inferior competition like the Timberwolves. That label doesn't quite apply to the Pelicans, especially as Zion Williamson continues coming into his own as Stan Van Gundy's primary playmaker. The Blazers' schedule is tough enough to finish the regular season, though, that even two games against New Orleans presents the type of opportunity they won't get again.
April 3 to April 10: Bottom-Dwellers and the Top of the West
This week-long stretch is bookended by tilts with the Thunder and Pistons at Moda Center, games that might as well be considered must-wins if Portland wants to continue fighting for a top-four seed. Both teams will be worse then than they are now, too, given the likelihood Oklahoma City and Detroit act as sellers at the trade deadline to gain more assets and increase their chances of landing a superstar in a top-heavy draft.
In between those games the Blazers visit the Jazz and Clippers, currently cementing themselves at the top of the conference standings. Expecting wins over either team is a stretch, which is why it's so imperative they take care of business against the Thunder and Pistons to emerge from this period 2-2.
May 12 to May 16: Buckle Up for Seeding Drama
Portland ends the regular season with a back-to-back against Utah and Phoenix beginning May 12, then hosts Denver in the season finale four days later. Best-case scenario come the middle of May, the Blazers are tangling with the Suns and Nuggets for a top-six seed. But still plausible is that they're vaulted in the standings by multiple teams, forced to use these last three games to avoid falling to ninth or tenth – making it much easier to survive the play-in tournament.
If you cross off the Timberwolves, Rockets, Thunder and Kings, all keenly aware of their lottery fate, that means one team with real postseason dreams won't even get the chance to make them reality. Could Portland finish the season 11th in the West? It's hard to believe Damian Lillard lets it happen. But should that slim possibility come to fruition, it will be because the Blazers – against very, very good competition – lost their last three games of the season.