The Numbers Behind Terry Stotts' Excuse For Portland's Recent Play
It seemed like another excuse for another disappointing loss, and very well might have been to Terry Stotts, too. But as the Trail Blazers embark on a six-game road trip in hopes of saving the season before it's too late, their embattled coach's inflammatory recent remarks still need some context.
Well, at least if there's still any optimism worth clinging to with the postseason fast approaching.
After Portland fell to the Memphis Grizzlies again on Sunday, its fifth straight loss, Stotts was asked to assess the state of his team. Instead of copping to the root problems fans, local media and national talking heads are so certain they're seeing, he insisted the Blazers have been better than their record in recent games suggests.
"I think recently we've been playing good basketball, and came up short in some close games," Stotts said.
"I think in the last two weeks we've played well."
There was no deflecting from what had just taken place, though. Stotts admitted Portland "didn't meet" the "different challenge" Memphis provided, alluding to the Grizzlies' youth and athleticism.
Then pressed to clarify if there was something "off" with the Blazers, Stotts didn't deny it.
"What you're seeing is the frustration of losing close games – that can take the wind out of your sail," he said.
Deducing whether the Blazers have recently played "good basketball," on the whole, is impossible by looking at wins and losses alone. The process can still trump results until the playoffs or play-in tournament, painful as falling below eighth in the standings would be. It's not like advancing past the play-in would negate the prevailing need for an offseason overhaul.
Portland's net rating in April is -1.6, according to Cleaning the Glass, which filters out garbage-time from its data. That's a bottom-10 number in basketball, but still a far cry from the point differential of a 3-10 team this month. Why? Per Cleaning the Glass' Win Differential metric, the Blazers have been the unluckiest team in the NBA, losing 2.9 games more than expected so far in April.
Even if Portland had pulled out most of those heartbreaking one-point losses, a 6-7 record wouldn't exactly be cause for celebration in Rip City. And that points to one of the biggest existential issues hovering over this franchise for years: Unrealistic expectations.
It's not just internal overvaluations of certain marquee and supporting players. Damian Lillard's all-time play in the clutch while the Blazers were ravaged by injury warped the perception of how good they ever really were this season.
After Portland beat the Detroit Pistons on the last day of March to move to 29-18, its net rating was +0.1 – just 1.7 points higher than the Blazers' 22nd-ranked mark this month, smaller than the difference between 10th and 14th league-wide. Where did Portland fall in Win Differential before April? First in the NBA, naturally, adding 5.4 more victories than expected, per Cleaning the Glass.
There's no fixing what ails the Blazers, at least on the scale they need to make a run in the postseason. Disillusioned, unorganized and stale as this team has looked at times of late, though, Portland clearly isn't as poor a team as its dire current straits indicate.
In that vein, Stotts wasn't lying, or even really deflecting. It's just especially tough to tell not only because needed change is clearly coming, but because the Blazers' bar of expectations was raised too high to begin with.