The Trail Blazers' Longtime Problem On The Wing Is Reappearing
Defense, surprise, was the Trail Blazers' biggest issue during their weekend back-to-back with the Timberwolves in Minneapolis. Portland surrendered a whopping 122.2 offensive rating in its win on Saturday, and a 115.2 offensive rating in its loss to Anthony Edwards and the 'Wolves a day later.
The Blazers aren't exactly making good on Robert Covington's goal of being a top-10 defense over the season's second half.
Even if that expectation proves as wildly optimistic as it seems, there's still some low-hanging fruit for Portland to pull that could improve its 29th-ranked defense. A cursory look at box scores reveals an especially obvious one from the Blazers' split with Minnesota: Rodney Hood getting more burn than Derrick Jones Jr. in both games.
Jones is hardly a panacea; his total value defensively lags a bit behind Covington's. Still, he's active, versatile and disruptive on the ball, regularly tasked with guarding the opposition's top playmaking threat almost regardless of position.
Hood sometimes functions in that same role for Portland, playing de facto stopper with Terry Stotts' second unit. Even before he ruptured his Achilles tendon last season, Hood wasn't exactly known as a stellar individual defender. At least a half step slower this season while recovering from that devastating injury, Hood is more of a minus defensively now than at any point in his career.
The problem for Stotts is that defenses' treatment of Jones has rendered him similarly ineffective on the other end. It's not just that Jones is a streaky, developing three-point shooter with a limited floor game.
It's that opposing defenses, going all out to keep Damian Lillard in check as C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic watch from the sidelines, have increasingly begun treating Jones with the schematic disrespect they long did Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless.
Jarred Vanderbilt basically played free safety this weekend while guarding Jones away from the ball.
The Blazers reacted by deploying Jones as a screener more often than normal, a gambit that sometimes included the added benefit of keeping Karl-Anthony Towns involved at the point of attack. But even Towns, not exactly known for his lateral quickness or defensive instincts, was occasionally able to affect Lillard as a helper because he was so unbothered by leaving Jones wide open on the arc.
Minnesota quickly decided in Saturday's game that a better matchup for Towns was Enes Kanter, opting to meet Lillard at the level of ball screens instead of aggressively hedging up the floor.
Giving Lillard a runway of space to attack Towns is a bad idea by itself; he's way too explosive for Towns to contain off the bounce even when the latter has his feet set. But the 'Wolves adjustment worked anyway because as Lillard got past the first line of defense, an extra body or two was always waiting to meet him in the paint.
Minnesota didn't just slough off Jones when Lillard had the rock, either.
Again, defenses taking advantage of Jones' lack of shooting range isn't new for Portland. The Dallas Mavericks put Kristaps Porzingis on Jones last month in hopes of keeping the 7-foot-3 big man near the rim, away from Lillard on the perimeter.
Opposing teams will stretch that approach to its limit come the postseason, a dynamic that could force Stotts to cut Jones' minutes – the same fate that befell Aminu and Harkless. Defenses will make Nassir Little and even Covington prove their chops from deep, too.
The 'Wolves forecasted it over the weekend, regularly abandoning normal help responsibilities to play two steps off Portland's wings or leave them altogether. In the first clip below, you can even see the Minnesota bench begging and pleading with Jake Layman and Vanderbilt to overload the strong side of the floor, paying Covington and Jones no mind.
The good news: McCollum is back.
His presence alone will make teams more hesitant to not just run two defenders at Lillard, but cheat too far off the wings behind the point of attack. He'll bang open threes and exploit all that space to attack close-outs with pull-ups and crafty finishes. Jusuf Nurkic's return looms similarly large; his playmaking as a roll man has been sorely missed by Lillard and the Blazers.
Basketball games are made up of two five-man teams, though. Portland's offensive problem on the wing won't just go away when McCollum and Nurkic are healthy, as the playoffs make clear every year.
Jones isn't comfortable functioning as a high-volume three-point shooter right now, and lacks the overall skill and passing feel with the ball needed to consistently take advantage of defenses not guarding him. Covington has deep range, but is inevitably prone to cold streaks from three. Little might as well be a rookie; the Blazers would much rather not have to rely on him to create offense when the season's on the line.
Hood checks the boxes of a wing who defenses might be too scared to leave open and could make them pay for doing so with the shot, pass and dribble. It makes sense for Stotts to give him a longer leash than seems appropriate given the manner in which Portland is being defended.
But lingering dreams of Hood suddenly rediscovering his two-way peak seem foolish by now. He shouldn't be in the Blazers' playoff rotation as things currently stand.
Aaron Gordon is certainly good enough to start and close games for Portland, though. Bringing him to Rip City in exchange for Hood, Zach Collins and a 2023 (or first allowable) lottery-protected first-round pick would be a major boon for the Blazers on both ends.
But no matter who's manning the wings for Portland come playoff time, it goes without saying their offensive worth will be tested by defenses selling out to stop Lillard and McCollum. Here's hoping they do better under that microscope than Blazers of the recent past.