Tough Remaining Schedule Could Push Blazers Into Play-In Tournament
Remember when the Trail Blazers seemed like they'd compete for home-court advantage in the playoffs? That was less than two weeks ago, when Portland – winners of four straight – faced its first major challenge since acquiring Norman Powell and Jusuf Nurkic returned to the lineup.
The Blazers' blowout loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, a game in which Giannis Antetokounmpo tied Wilt Chamberlain's record by making all 18 of his two-point field goal attempts, proved an unsurprising harbinger of further struggles to come.
They were 29-18 before being embarrassed by the Bucks, fifth in the West and just a half game back of the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets. If Portland really was turning the corner, a first-round series at Moda Center seemed well within the realm of possibility.
Not anymore. The Lakers, despite playing without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, are now two games in front of the Blazers. The Denver Nuggets, surging since trading for Aaron Gordon, are three games up on Damian Lillard and company.
Who's closest to Portland in the standings? The seventh-place Dallas Mavericks, only a game-and-a-half back of the Blazers, a couple fortuitous future bounces away from avoiding the play-in tournament.
Dallas can't count solely on luck to make up that difference, of course. What the Mavericks can anticipate is finishing the season strong. Their remaining strength of schedule is the second-easiest in basketball, according to Tankathon. That's not the only reason Dallas should feel extra optimistic about its chances of moving up a spot in the standings, either.
Why? Portland owns the league's third-hardest schedule from this point forward, per Tankathon, its future opponents combining for a winning percentage of 55.0.
The Blazers haven't beat a team with a winning record since mid-March. They're 4-11, with a -10.0 net rating, against the league's 10-best teams in adjusted point differential, per Cleaning the Glass. Every other team in the West's top-eight ranks above league-average in net rating against that quality competition; Portland ranks 22nd.
To be clear, the play-in wouldn't be a death-knell for the Blazers. There are only so many players in the league you'd want on your team more than Lillard under those do-or-die circumstances. It's not like Portland's long-shot prospects of pulling off a first-round upset would diminish much further if it was facing the West's three-seed instead of the one or two, either.
Significance of the Blazers falling into the play-in tournament would be more about expectations than anything else, and management's response to failing to meet them. The way the season's trending, though, no one would be surprised if the front office makes major changes come summer, almost regardless of how Portland finishes.