The Trail Blazers Can't Rely On Damian Lillard's Crunch-Time Heroics Going Forward
The late-game reputations of legends like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant were well-earned, but still a reflection of feelings and moments more than the actual numbers.
Not Damian Lillard's, at least this season. The Trail Blazers superstar has recemented himself as basketball's most unstoppable force in the clutch, on multiple occasions willing his undermanned team to victories in games it should have lost over the season's first half.
The stats defy hyperbole. Lillard is shooting 68 percent on twos, 58.3 percent from three and has made all 28 of his free throws in crunch-time, per NBA.com/stats. His 84.8 true shooting percentage ranks first among all high-usage players by over eight points. Lillard isn't just dominating the clutch as a scorer, either; his 47.1 assist percentage is third in the league behind those of Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic.
The result? Not just Lillard forcing his way to the front of a crowded MVP race, but Portland's +19.0 net rating in crunch-time, fourth-best in the NBA.
The Blazers are off to their best start since 2015, entering the season's truncated second half at 21-14. Lillard's late-game heroics obviously played a huge factor in Portland's ability to withstand its rash of injuries, none more significant than Jusuf Nurkic's broken wrist and C.J. McCollum's fractured foot.
But just because the Blazers will soon get their second and third-best players back hardly means their current level of success will be sustained or improved upon through spring into early summer.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Portland has won 3.2 more games than expected this season based on its point differential, third-most in the league. That's not surprising given the frequency and impact of Lillard's historic crunch-time performance. You don't need analytics to know that the Blazers have punched well above their weight this season.
Still, the extent of Portland's expected win-loss discrepancy reveals just how tenuous its currently firm grasp on a playoff spot could be over the season's remainder. Would the Blazers enter the second half happy if their place in the standings better aligned with their -0.4 net rating?
Then there's the inevitability of Lillard's future play in the clutch coming at least a bit closer back to earth. The only semi-comparable crunch-time profiles of the last decade belong to Victor Oladipo in 2018-19 and Russell Westbrook in 2016-17, his bygone MVP season.
But even if Lillard somehow managed to maintain his video-game crunch-time efficiency, it goes without saying that his prior impact will be somewhat mitigated by the presence of McCollum. There's just no way Lillard's usage in the clutch hovers around 40 percent with an isolation bucket-getter like McCollum playing next to him.
Lillard says it often: The margins matter more for a team like the Blazers, which can't rely on overwhelming individual talent for success. He's spoiled Rip City over the season's first half, inflating Portland's win total with late-game heroics to a degree that seems unsustainable – with or without McCollum and Nurkic.