Pregame: Blazers Visit Clippers In Tough Test For Three-Guard Lineup
Opponent: LA Clippers (33-18 overall, 7-3 last 10 games)
Offensive Rating: 116.7 (fourth)
Defensive Rating: 110.4 (tenth)
Net Rating: +6.3 (fourth)
Where: Staples Center (Los Angeles)
When: 7:00 p.m. (PST)
Broadcast: NBC Sports Northwest/FOX Sports Prime Ticket
Point Spread: LA -6
Moneyline: LA -235, Portland +194
Over/Under: 229
Injuries/Health
- LA: Zach Collins (out), Derrick Jones Jr. (probable), Jusuf Nurkic (out)
- Portland: Patrick Beverley (questionable), Serge Ibaka (out)
Primer: Terry Stotts confirmed on Monday what's been obvious since his team acquired Norman Powell. The Trail Blazers are fully committed to their three-guard starting lineup, even when facing teams as big, versatile and star-driven as the LA Clippers.
That's the right mindset, to be clear. Portland doesn't have the dynamic reserve wing that would make deviating from its normal rotation worth not playing the team's most talented players.
There will be many times on Tuesday night when Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum get stuck guarding Kawhi Leonard or prove ineffective contesting jumpers from Paul George. Even Powell, with a 6-foot-11 wingspan and dogged demeanor defensively, isn't a viable matchup for Leonard, and is only an average option at best on George.
Central to the equation supporting the Blazers fully shirking size concerns on the perimeter is the assumption they'll win the game within the game from beyond the arc. That's hardly guaranteed against LA. The Clippers shoot a scintillating 41.6 percent from deep, easily the best mark in basketball.
Luke Kennard and Marcus Morris are above 47 percent on threes. George, Nic Batum and Patrick Beverley are about 42 percent. Leonard, Reggie Jackson and Patrick Patterson are hovering around 40 percent.
The good news for Portland is two-fold: The Clippers rank a middling 15th in three-point rate, per Cleaning the Glass, and the absence of Serge Ibaka means the Blazers won't be forced to defend the arc across five positions when LA's starters are on the floor. Enes Kanter won't have to stray too far from the paint while checking Ivica Zubac. When Patterson comes in at center, expect Portland to go small with Robert Covington at nominal 5.
A month ago, Portland wouldn't have missed Jusuf Nurkic against the Clippers nearly as much as it might on Tuesday. Terance Mann emerging as a full-time rotation player of late has drastically altered LA's offensive identity, though, as his off-dribble explosiveness and creative passing chops have allowed the Clippers to put more pressure on the paint.
Mann has played at least 20 minutes in every game since the trade deadline, a stretch over which the Clippers have taken 32.9 percent of their shots at rim, 11th in the league. Before then? LA ranked 26th in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass, a ringing endorsement of Mann's value to LA as a penetrator, short-roll playmaker and transition pusher.
Don't sleep on Kennard, either. After a horrible start to his tenure with the Clippers, he's been on fire over the last two weeks.
Bottom Line: Portland will miss Nurkic against a team already possessing a size advantage. Unless the Blazers dominate from three, LA's talent and physicality will likely prove too much for them to overcome.