The AFC South race appears to be wide open this year, making Thursday night’s divisional game between the Titans (3–4) and Jaguars (2–4) all the more important for two teams that combined for eight wins last year.
Both of them come into this matchup off losses, with the Titans listed as 3.5-point home favorites over the Jaguars at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The favored team has won each of the past five meetings in the series, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with Jacksonville going 4-0-2 against the spread in the last six. The home team has been chalk in four straight and six of seven, with four of the previous six matchups decided by four points or less.
While the Titans have already equaled last season’s win total, they are still searching for their first victory against an AFC South opponent. The Titans have struggled mightily against divisional foes over the past few seasons, going 4–16 SU and 2-16-2 ATS in their last 20 matchups. Tennessee lost to the Colts 34–26 last Sunday at home despite being 3.5-point favorites, failing to cover for the fourth time in their past five games this year.
The Jaguars saw their two-game winning streak come to an end with a 33–16 home loss to former head coach Jack Del Rio and the Raiders on Sunday as well, dropping a game they had entered as two-point favorites. Jacksonville had covered in its previous three games along with four of five to begin the season, but the offense had to settle for three field goals and one late touchdown against Oakland, while the defense gave up its second-highest point total of the year.
The Colts were the only team in the division to win last week, with the AFC South-leading Texans losing badly to the Broncos on Monday night. The Texans are unbeaten at home (4–0) and winless on the road (0–3), leaving every team a very real shot to pass the defending division champs.
Jacksonville and Tennessee have played better away from home, with the Jaguars also going 4–1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs of 3.5 points or more, so keep an eye on the betting line for the Thursday matchup.