There’s only one game this week with a projected game total over 50 points and that game is only on the main slate on FanDuel. 4for4 values are slanted toward expensive running backs on both sites, but there are a handful of affordable quarterbacks in great matchups that help save salary in order to get to those pricey running backs. Especially on DraftKings, where no game on the main slate has an over/under above 47.5 and no teams are projected for more than 27 points, this is a great week to favor unpopular plays in large-field tournaments.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Todd Gurley ($8,400) vs Cardinals
Gurley is one of two running backs that have accounted for at least 50% of his team’s touches on the season, and the Rams are favored by 3.5 points at home this week. Positive game script is always important for running backs, but it has been especially pronounced for Gurley this year. In the Rams four wins, Gurley has averaged 145 yards and 28 total touches, but just 93 total yards and 18 touches in their two losses. Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than Arizona, but when adjusted for strength of schedule, the Cardinals are a middle-of-the-pack unit against running backs.
Brett Hundley ($6,500) vs Saints
Hundley is 4for4’s top-projected quarterback value this week against a Saints defense that 4for4 ranks outside the top 20 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Green Bay has been one of the league’s most pass-heavy teams this year, and still threw 65% of the time after Hundley came in for Aaron Rodgers last week. Only eight teams have allowed more fantasy points per pass attempt this season than New Orleans.
LeSean McCoy ($7,400) vs Buccaneers
The Bills face a Tampa Bay team that 4for4 ranks as a top-10 defense against running backs. The Buccaneers have been vulnerable against the pass, however, and McCoy leads Buffalo in targets, accounting for nearly 25% of the looks from Tyrod Taylor this season. Only two teams have allowed more total schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses than Tampa Bay, and McCoy has accounted for 28% of the Bills non-quarterback DraftKings points this year.
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Eric Decker ($4,300) @ Browns
Decker has had a slow start to 2017, but last week he accounted for 29% of the Titans targets and he leads the team in red-zone targets on the season. Tennessee has the second-highest projected point total on the main slate against a Browns defense that has allowed the second-highest completion percentage in the league. Decker has typically excelled throughout his career in the red zone, and Cleveland has surrendered the highest touchdown rate through the air inside the 20.