Many of the top receivers in the league either aren’t on this week’s main slate or are in prohibitive matchups, which means owners can spend up at running back relatively easily without foregoing the upside that elite wide receivers offer. On the whole, ownership figures to be slanted heavily towards the three offenses with the highest projected point total: New England, New Orleans and Kansas City.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Travis Kelce ($7,500) @ Giants
According to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric, only one team ranks worse against tight ends than the Giants, and that’s the Browns. No team has allowed more touchdowns to the position than New York, and a tight end has found the end zone in every game against this defense. Kansas City is projected by Vegas to score almost 28 points, and only four teams throw at a higher rate inside the red zone than the Chiefs. Travis Kelce has accounted for over a quarter of Kansas City’s red zone targets, which helps explain why is the top projected value at his position, based on 4for4 projections.
Sterling Shepard ($6,500) vs Chiefs
On the other side of the same game, Sterling Shepard is in a spot to see huge target volume. Shepard has racked up at least nine targets in each of the last two weeks and since returning from injury, he and Evan Engram have combined for nearly 55% of New York’s targets. The Chiefs are a defense that funnels targets to wide receivers—Kansas city ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but 31st against wide receivers. As 10.5-point underdogs, the Giants figure to find themselves in a pass-heavy game script.
Kareem Hunt ($8,000) @ Giants
After a mediocre performance preceding the bye week, Kareem Hunt’s salary is the lowest that it has been on DraftKings since Week 3. Even after that hiccup in Week 9, where Charcandrick West inexplicably took over in the second half, Hunt still accounts for nearly 90% of Kansas City’s backfield touches and ranks second in the league in total yards per game. As 10.5-point favorites, the Chiefs are likely to be in a run-heavy game plan and they face a Giants defense that ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, when adjusted for strength of schedule.
Tyler Kroft ($2,900) @ Broncos
Paying down at tight end is usually the strategy that gives a lineup its highest floor, since tight end is inherently the most volatile skill position in terms of weekly fantasy scoring. 4for4 ranks Tyler Kroft as the top value at his position this week against a Broncos defense that funnels targets to tight ends. Denver ranks second in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receiver, but 29th against tight ends. The Bengals may find themselves with multiple short scoring opportunities this week—Denver’s offense has the second-most turnovers, which has led to the best average starting field position for their opponents. This may explain why the Broncos have allowed the highest touchdown rate through the air.