- Finding the best bang for your DFS buck in Week 3.
Two games on the main slate—Saints at Falcons, and 49ers at Chiefs—have over/unders higher than 50 points. With so many offensive stars in both contests, expect DFS ownership to slant heavily toward these games. Keep in mind that there are four other teams on the main slate with expected point totals of at least 25, per Vegas odds. Looking at players on those teams will offer massive upside at relatively low ownership, which could swing fortunes in large-field tournaments.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Giovani Bernard ($6,400) at Panthers
With Joe Mixon out this week, Bernard is one of the best price-saving options across all positions. Projected for more than 20 touches by 4for4’s John Paulsen, Bernard is the top dollar-per-projected-touch value of the week. Mixon has accounted for better than 47% of the Bangals’ touches in the first two weeks—the second-highest team touch share in the league—and Bernard will inherit the majority of that work. While Cincinnati is an underdog, the Bengals have targeted their running backs eight times per game, giving Bernard a relatively safe floor even if his team falls behind.
Allen Robinson ($6,500) at Cardinals
One of the most common reasons for pricing inefficiencies in DFS is the fact that salaries are released before the Monday night game. The beneficiary this week is Robinson, who saw his price hold steady after a 10-catch, 14-target performance on Monday night. Through two weeks, Robinson has accounted for 30% of the Bears’ targets and is facing a Cardinals defense that allowed more than 350 yards through the air last week. Chicago has moved Robinson around the formation frequently this season to create, and take advantage of, mismatches. With more than one-third of his snaps already in the slot, expect Matt Nagy to scheme Robinson away from Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson.
Matt Ryan ($5,700) vs. Saints
A great way to find value in DFS—notably for those that play multiple sites—is to compare salaries across sites. This week, Ryan is priced as the QB7 on FanDuel but is the QB13 on DraftKings. Getting exposure to Falcons and Saints is a must in cash games, and Ryan is one of the most affordable options available. Through two weeks, Atlanta has thrown 62% of the time when the game is within one score, a top-10 passing rate in neutral game script and up from its 53% passing rate in like situations last year. Atlanta is favored at home with a Vegas projected point total above 28, but Ryan is almost $1,000 cheaper than Drew Brees.
Kareem Hunt ($6,000) vs. 49ers
Another cross-site salary anomaly, Hunt is priced as the RB7 on FanDuel but the RB12 on DraftKings. With nearly 40% of the Kansas City’s total touches on the season, only seven players in the league have a higher team touch share than Hunt. Still, his price has dropped $900 since Week 1, based largely on the fact that Patrick Mahomes and the passing game have accounted for all the team’s touchdowns. The perception is that Hunt is off to a slow start, but his volume will naturally lead to big fantasy days. Take advantage this week, as Kansas City is projected by Vegas to score more than 30 points against a 49ers defense that has allowed nearly 300 total yards to opposing backs in two games.