- Finding the best bang for your DFS buck in Week 13.
Bye weeks are officially over, which means there are 13 games on the main slate this week. An increased quantity of games means more decision points, but it also means more opportunities to exploit low-owned plays that fly under the radar. With a Vegas projected total above 32 and a handful of reasonably priced skill players, 4fo4 projects the Rams to be the highest-owned offense on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Davante Adams ($8,500) vs. Cardinals
Adams hasn’t been the flashiest receiver this year, but you can argue that he’s been the most consistent. Adams is one of three players to see at least 20% of his team’s targets in every game, and also one of three receivers to score at least 10 FanDuel points every week—in fact, he’s the only receiver to eclipse 12 FD points in every game this season. Additionally, Adams is tied for the lead league in red-zone targets. Projected by Vegas for 29 points, Week 13 represents Green Bay’s highest implied point total of the season. While the Cardinals are a defense that filters fantasy points to the running game, Arizona has struggled of late in pass defense, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks.
Phillip Lindsay ($7,000) at Bengals
When adjusted for strength of schedule, 4for4 ranks the Bengals as the best fantasy matchup for running backs, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg for a struggling Cincinnati team. The Bengals are also 29th against quarterbacks, and Jeff Driskel will be making his first career start under center. So not only should Denver be able to move the ball up and down the field at will, but Driskel’s inexperience could result in extra possessions and favorable field position for the Broncos throughout the game. Those are the kind of conditions that hint at a blowout in the making, or at least a great game script for a running back. Over the last month, only 10 players have seen a higher percentage of team touches than Lindsay, and that share should be even higher is this game plays out as expected.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) at Buccaneers
Not only is the Panthers’ star running back projected as 4for4’s top value at running back, but he is the number one value across all positions. Over the last month, only five players have accounted for a higher team touch share than McCaffrey, a span where’s he’s seen at least 43% of Carolina’s touches in every game. Vegas gives the Panthers an implied total of 29 points against a Tampa Bay defense that 4for4 ranks 22nd or worse against every position. Even if Carolina doesn’t win as the spread suggests, McCaffrey’s seven-plus targets per game make him relatively game-script independent.
Kenny Golladay ($6,700) vs. Rams
With Golden Tate no longer in Detroit and Marvin Jones on IR, Golladay has averaged nearly 10 targets per game over the last month, commanding 29.3% of Detroit’s targets, the fourth-highest target share in that span. In a game where the Lions figure to be forced into a pass-heavy game plan opposite a dynamic Rams offense, Golladay has 15-plus targets in his range of outcomes. When adjusted for strength of schedule, the Rams rank last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. If Aqib Talib sits another week, Golladay will draw cornerback Troy Hill—among qualified Week 13 starting corners, Hill ranks in the bottom three in yards per attempt and fantasy points allowed per target.