Fantasy Reflections on 2019 Passing & Rushing Totals
As I transition to the 2020 NFL football season, my first step is reflecting on last year’s data. It amazes me sometimes to see how 32 teams can play 512 games each season, yet some data points fall in tight ranges from year-to-year despite massive changes in the player pool over three-to-five-year periods of the game. At the same, the NFL makes rules changes that are reflected in the distribution of touchdowns.
Here’s a look a the final stats for rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, completions, passing yards, completion rate, yards per pass attempt, and passing touchdowns for the last decade:
Rushing Attempts
Over the previous decade, rushing attempts peaked in 2011 (13,971) while bottoming out in 2018 (13,270). From 2010 to 2014, NFL teams averaged just over 27 rushing attempts per game. In 2018, they averaged 25.9 carries per contest. Last season, NFL teams ran the ball 26.1 times per game.
The gap from the high to low over this period is merely 1.4 rushing attempts per game per team over 512 contests.
Rushing Yards
The quality and depth at the running back position change over time, leading to up-and-down spikes in overall rushing success. At the same time, the emergence of some running QBs over the last couple of seasons has helped regain some lost value in rushing yards.
As expected, the most rushing yards in a season came from 2010 to 2012 (58,607, 59,978, and 59,349). Over this span, NFL teams averaged about 4.26 yards per rush.
The rushing player pool had regression from 2015 to 2017 (55,724, 55,763, 56,174) while averaging only 4.13 yards per carry.
The most significant change in rushing value in 2018 (4.42) and 2019 (4.32) came in yards per rush. The rebound in rushing yards and the bounce up in rushing yards per attempt looks to be tied to two running quarterbacks (Josh Allen – 89/631/8 and 109/510/9 and Lamar Jackson – 147/695/5 and 176/1206/7).
In 2017, the Ravens’ QBs rushed for only 51 yards on 29 carries.
Rushing and Passing Touchdowns
From 2010 to 2013, rushing touchdowns fell into an amazingly tight range (399, 400, 401, and 410). Over 2,048 games over four seasons, there was a difference of 11 touchdowns from the low to high. Over this stretch, NFL teams averaged 0.79 TDs per game.
Passing touchdowns finished in a similar area as well in 2010 (751), 2011 (745), and 2012 (757). The first spike in passing touchdowns came in 2013 (804).
After two down seasons in rushing TDs (380 and 365), the needle pushed to much higher levels in 2016 (443), 2018 (439), and 2019 (447). This growth is tied to the change in instant replay rules. There are many more players down after contact inside the two-yard line via passing plays than earlier seasons.
The highest total in passing touchdowns (842) came in 2015, which was the same year when rushers scored a decade low 365 rushing TDs.
The lowest scoring year in combined rushing and passing touchdowns came in 2017 (1,121 TDs). The following season NFL teams scored 164 more touchdowns to set the NFL high (1,286).
Last season there were 1,244 combined rushing (447) and passing (797) touchdowns.
Pass Attempts
In 2010, NFL teams combined for 17,269 pass attempts over 512 games. That number spiked to 18,295 in 2016, while fading back to 17,488 in 2017. Passing attempts improved in 2018 (17,671) and 2019 (17,853).
Passing Yards
Over the last decade, the lows in passing yards came in 2010 (120,946) and 2017 (122,680). Three of the past five seasons have been the best in NFL history (2015 – 132,689, 2016 – 130.864, and 2018 – 130.267). Last year teams combined for 128,911 passing yards.
The best three seasons in yards per passing attempt came in 2018 (7.37), 2012 (7.26), and 2015 (7.25). The bottom two years were 2010 (7.00) and 2017 (7.02).
2019 Final Rushing and Passing Stats
Last season each team in the NFL averaged 26.1 rushes for 112.90 yards and 0.87 rushing touchdowns per game. Ball carriers averaged 4.32 yards per carry.
On the passing side, the league average came to 22.13 completions on 34.87 attempts for 251.78 yards with 1.56 touchdowns and 0.80 interceptions per game.
Observations
From a fantasy perspective, this information sets the guidelines for what to expect from the average quarterback. When building a fantasy roster, it is essential to know if you are getting an edge when drafting a player.
At the same time, it lays the foundation of what to expect from the running back position.
With the top-tier quarterbacks over the last decade getting closer to the end of their careers, the NFL needs a new crop of young talented players to fill those voids.
The running position seems to be on the uptick as far as young developing running backs, but the next generation of elite wide receivers hasn’t arrived. There is talent at the top end at WR for sure, but the overall depth needs an injection of rising stars.
MORE FROM SI:
2020 NFL Mock Draft: Justin Herbert to Dolphins?
2020 NFL Mock Draft: Fantasy Football Implications
2020 Fantasy Football: One-Man First Round Mock Draft
Is Lamar Jackson a Fantasy Football First-Round Pick?
