The NFL's COVID-19 Results Have Teams Much More Confident About Getting Through a Season
I had a back porch off my vacation house this July where I’d get cell service (it was pretty sketchy everywhere else), and over those three weeks, I wound up spending a lot of time out there.
That, of course, was during the final run-up to training camp. And the calls were coming during a time of year that would normally be quiet.
We were all trying to figure out what was ahead.
The NFL and NFLPA were negotiating protocols, and coaches and scouts and, yes, media were piecing together what the second half of the summer would look like. Some coaches believed the sport itself simply wasn’t compatible with COVID-19. Others worried about their own, or their families’, underlying health issues. Still others called to commiserate over some 60 pages of protocols that landed on their desks a few days after July Fourth.
What was ahead was, really, the great unknown.
A month-and-a-half later, we know a lot more. And by just about any measure, the NFL’s handling of the pandemic has been an enormous success. That’s a tribute to two groups of people on opposite sides of the table, with neither minimizing the circumstances in front of them, nor seeing them as unsurmountable, and then everyone toeing the line afterward.
“We have been really fortunate,” commissioner Roger Goodell said on a conference call this week. “The cases of COVID-19 are very low across the league. It is a testament to the plans, but most importantly to the diligence of the players, the teams and their staffs. I would tell you that we still have more work to do. We are not going to get comfortable. We will remain vigilant, resilient and flexible and basically adapt to circumstances as needed.”
Goodell’s right. It’s taken everyone to get this far, and it’ll take everyone to keep it going.
As for those coaches and GMs I talked to on the deck back in July? They’ve learned a lot since then and, with the season here, we’re about to dive right into that with them.
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This edition of the GamePlan lands with a week to go until kickoff—we’re almost there. In the column this week, you’ll find …
• A ranking of the top available free agents.
• A look at why the NFL is allowing fans in (some of) the stands.
• Reasoning for the Saints’ caution in paying Alvin Kamara.
But we’re starting with a look at what NFL people have learned over the last six weeks.
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This is it for training camps. Most teams have already transitioned their starters from camp mode into preparing for the season opener. Most roster spots have been won. The final cutdown is about 48 hours away.
So here are some of the results over that time …
• From the start of camp through Aug. 11, 64 players tested positive for COVID-19. On top of that, 67 players opted out of the 2020 season. And there were 107 known player positives before the start of camp.
• From Aug. 12 to Aug. 20, the NFL administered 58,397 tests to 8,573 people—23,260 to players and 35,137 to other personnel. In that stretch, zero players tested positive, and six other personnel tested positive.
• From Aug. 21 to Aug. 29, the league administered 58,621 tests to 8,739 people—23,279 to players, and 35,342 to other personnel. Over that time, four players tested positive, and six other personnel tested positive.
• There are five players currently on the COVID-19 list: 49ers LB Fred Warner, Falcons DL Steven Means, Panthers CB Derrek Thomas and G Chris Reed, and Saints RB Dwayne Washington.
So, in summary, the NFL had 64 players test positive during the camp ramp-up period, and 107 before that. In the 18 days after that, they administered more than 46,000 tests to a base of players that numbers around 2,700 (that total fluctuates, obviously), and just four tested positive. And that was during the period in which actual football—a sport some worried would be a super-spreader—began (Aug. 12 was the start of OTA-style practices for 30 teams).
By any measure, that’s a great level of success, and the football folks have learned a lot. And to give you an idea of just what they’ve taken in, I polled a bunch of head coaches and GMs via text Wednesday night with three questions, to try and get their take on how it’s gone. Here’s how those involved, on the ground floor, see it.
NFC head coach
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “It takes a huge group to manage the COVID issues. Lots of problem-solving and ability to adjust on the fly.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Travel. We are all mostly here or home. Baseball seems to struggle with that. Will we have controlled environments?”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “Confidence is really high. Keep doing the next right thing!”
NFC GM
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “Having to manage and educate the last month IS the new normal.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Biggest concern going forward is letting our guard down and the virus coming on strong.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “I’m very confident in the season getting played. Protocols are great, and players and staff are doing well.”
NFC head coach
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “It’s about daily reminders to players and coaches and being willing to be a pain in the ass with protocols.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Any symptoms triggering someone to be out—even when it’s not COVID-19. The symptoms are so general that when fall and winter hit, everyone can have symptoms on every day.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “Confidence is high. But we’ll have some roller-coaster moments and weird scenarios play out (all of those are going to be surprises when they come up).”
AFC GM
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “Biggest thing I have learned is don’t buckle your knees, expect the unexpected and remain vigilant with all players, coaches and staff to mask up, wash hands and social distance when possible.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Biggest concern going forward is that we have a position wiped out for a game, should there be a mini-outbreak at a position.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “I do believe the season will be played. At a minimum, I believe we will get 12 games, plus playoffs in. As we sit here today, I see us playing all 16.”
NFC head coach
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “I’ve learned that having to test every day helps keep everybody disciplined (I hope it stays that way).”
My biggest concern going forward: “I hope we don’t lose our focus and get complacent.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “I am fairly confident we will play. If we can stay disciplined, we have a good chance to play 16 games. I also appreciate how cooperative the NFL and NFLPA have been. It just shows that we can work together.”
AFC head coach
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “If you consistently follow protocols, we can manage this. And we must not let people in our bubble.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Biggest concern is travel. You hope airlines, hotels, buses and facilities are on par. Then it’s the players leaving the bubble. Most won’t, but all it takes is one.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “Higher than what it was!”
AFC GM
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “Expect the unexpected. [False positives were] actually a good ‘fire drill’ on how to handle a potential outbreak. Also, I’m proud of how all of our staff/coaches/players have made good decisions outside of the building so far.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Biggest concern is making sure we all continue to make good decisions once the time constraints from training camp are reduced.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “My confidence level was very low in mid-July but has grown each week. I think we have a good shot at getting this season in.”
NFC head coach
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “I guess the biggest thing I have learned, some of the protocols are silly, such as wearing masks during a game or in a press box, not being able to leave the hotel but we can go anywhere we want in our own city, etc.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Biggest concern is false positives and a position group out on game day.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “I think I’m more confident that the season will be played now.”
AFC GM
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “Managing COVID administratively has involved many people, not just ICO’s [infection control officers]. We have used staff from other departments on a full-time basis to help with this.”
My biggest concern going forward: “I’m concerned with the league doing so well in camp, but now players will have more time outside the building. I hope higher exposure to the general population, combined with potential complacency, does not lead to positives.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “I am very confident for a full season.”
NFC head coach
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “WEAR YOUR MASKS. It’s mandatory in our building.”
My biggest concern going forward: “My biggest concern is people getting relaxed. Moving forward, it’s all of us understanding how important it is to be selfless and be smart outside our bubble/complex.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “I feel very good about getting started.”
AFC GM
Biggest thing I’ve learned: “That the adaptability of everyone in our organization to adjust, to create a workplace where our players and staff can still come to work, be productive, and feel safe has been outstanding.”
My biggest concern going forward: “Obviously that our players, coaches, staff and the families of those in our organization stay safe and understanding of the environment we are all working in.”
Your confidence level that the season gets played: “We are confident that we are going to do all we can to make sure we adhere to the protocols, work hard, stay safe, try to get better each day, and see where that takes us, that’s the only thing we can control.”
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As you can see, across the NFL, there’s a pretty good understanding that no one’s out of the woods yet—regardless of how strong a start pro football seems to be off to. But one thing that was common among all these guys, when I followed up, was that they’ve all been surprised at how relatively smooth the whole thing’s been for the last six or seven weeks.
Here’s hoping it stays that way.
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POWER RANKINGS
We’re a week out from the season, and teams are still looking for help. What’s out there? Here are my top-five street free agents, and the reason for the availability of each guy, as best as I can ascertain it.
1) DE Jadeveon Clowney: He’s been out there forever now, and this, as I see it, has been the result of a convergence of circumstances for the 27-year-old. Injuries. Whispers about his makeup as a player. Financial expectations. The fiscal realities of the next 16 months for teams. All of it plays in. I think his best play now would be to go to a team he’s familiar with (Seattle, Tennessee or Houston), play his ass off and hope the pot of gold he was looking for last March is there next March.
2) S Earl Thomas: He’s made about $67 million over the last six years, and having that kind of earning power will make a man pretty comfortable with the idea of being an eight-figure guy. Thomas will have to come to grips with the idea of making less, and answer for having left two really good places (Seattle and Baltimore) on shaky terms. Once that happens? There’s still tread left on the tire here for a team that has the sort of strong locker room that can absorb Thomas’s quirks.
3) DT Marcell Dareus: The ex-Bill and Jaguar—the third pick in the star-studded 2011 draft—has the ability to be an elite run defender, and, at 30, still has enough quickness to play (if not excel) on passing downs. I am, quite frankly, a little surprised Dareus is still out there on the market.
4) RB Devonta Freeman: Tailbacks age in dog years, so Freeman being 28 with six NFL seasons under his belt doesn’t play to his advantage. Nor do his aspirations of getting anywhere close to the sort of money he made after the Falcons rewarded him coming off the 2016 Super Bowl run. But he can still play, and could be a valuable piece for someone in an injury pinch or hit with some sort of COVID-19 circumstance at the position.
5) LB Alec Ogletree: The former Giant and Ram can still run, has always been a good cover player for the position and is capable of going sideline-to-sideline in the run game. He’s another one who’s used to making a lot more money than he will in 2020. But he’s worked out for a couple of teams and I’d assume is atop a lot of emergency lists with the season about to start.
And there are a few others to keep an eye on here, too. DT Snacks Harrison can still play, but has considered retirement. Eric Reid and Reshad Jones aren’t great in coverage anymore, but could offer something as veteran safeties. TE Delanie Walker is still solid, but has had problems staying healthy. And versatile OLB Justin Britt—Seattle has brought him in for workouts a few times, to keep tabs on his rehab from an ACL injury—would be one more to keep an eye on.
It’s also worth mentioning that players like this might be a little more relevant this year, given the obvious challenges that may lie ahead.
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THE BIG QUESTION
Why is the NFL allowing fans in some places and not in others?
The short answer: to make money.
The quicker the league gets socially distant crowds, the quicker it gets to half-capacity, the quicker it’ll get to full stadiums. You can’t start that process without, well, starting the process, and so the league’s going to do that with socially distant crowds in Kansas City and Miami, and maybe a couple of other places in September. I can tell you, having seen Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida with my own eyes, the Dolphins covered just about everything.
And from here, a lot of it will be up to the fans. Can they be disciplined with masks? Can they stay disciplined after a few drinks? These are the questions we’ll get answers to as the fans that do go through the turnstiles are tested—and make no mistake about it, if you are one of those fans, you are being tested.
For now, the profits for teams like the Chiefs and Dolphins won’t be game-changing. But filling the stadium to half-capacity in, say, mid-November, would make a difference, and not just for the teams in question. It would, in fact, help everyone: all the owners as part of the NFL’s revenue-sharing, and the players too, in potential mitigation of the looming cap shortfall of 2021.
That’s why, when you hear coaches unhappy with the competitive issues that the inequities might create—with one team working its way through the aforementioned path, and the next handcuffed from doing so, due to local regulations—the complaints fall on deaf ears. And why commissioner Roger Goodell was so dismissive of the idea on a call with the media this week.
“I would probably take issue with the fact that it’s a huge competitive advantage,” Goodell responded to a question on the topic. “As you know, our stadium sizes are different across the league. The attendance is different on a normal season. We do not see and our clubs do not see a competitive advantage at all, whether fans are in one stadium or another.”
That, of course, is a little disingenuous. There are always differences from stadium to stadium, as Goodell is saying, but those aren’t based on health conditions stemming from a pandemic. Those are based on how passionate a fan base might be, or how good a team is. Which is to say, yes, it’s a little unfair for certain teams to lack the energy in their home stadium that others will be afforded this fall, through no fault of their own.
But I don’t believe it’s unfair enough for the league or its players to walk away from a pile of a cash in a year when cash is going to be a little harder to come by.
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WHAT NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
How the Saints have structured their team over the years.
Fun fact: When star receiver Michael Thomas signed his deal last summer at nearly $20 million per year (five years, $96.25 million), he became the first receiver and just the second skill player to break the $10 million per year mark in Saints history (following Jimmy Graham, who got a four-year, $40 million deal in 2014, then was traded in 2015). And if you think about how good New Orleans has been on offense under Sean Payton, that’s sort of mind-blowing.
Then, there’s this: The team’s current roster has one first-round pick among offensive players who don’t play on the line. Who’s that one? Backup quarterback Jameis Winston.
Now, consider the offensive line.
LT Terron Armstead: Five-year, $65 million extension signed in 2016.
LG Andrus Peat: Five-year, $57.5 million extension signed in 2020.
C Erik McCoy: 2019 second-round pick on a rookie deal.
RG Cesar Ruiz: 2020 first-round pick on a rookie deal.
RT Ryan Ramczyk: 2017 first-round pick on a rookie deal.
The team’s history under Payton checks out here, too—the team has consistently paid their own (Jahri Evans, Zach Strief) and made plays for high-end guys outside the organization (Ben Grubbs, Max Unger), while never being afraid to deal off top skill guys (Graham, Brandin Cooks) or just let them go (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram).
And that brings us to Alvin Kamara. Plenty of people were stunned at the notion that the Saints could trade their versatile, stick-of-dynamite tailback, who plays like he was born to play in Payton’s offense. But then, Graham and Cooks were like that too.
So that’s why the Kamara negotiation is so interesting to me. For 15 years now, Payton’s philosophy in building the offense has been to invest at quarterback and on the line, and trust in his own ability to identify, develop, and deploy skill players on basically a constant loop. It worked, in fact, with Thomas (a 2016 second-rounder) and Kamara (a 2017 third-rounder), to the point where both have merited top-of-the-market contracts.
Over the years, letting guys at their positions walk hasn’t affected the offense’s production much. The Saints have been top-10 in total offense for 15 consecutive seasons, and top-five in 11 of those campaigns. Will keeping Thomas and Kamara at an inflated rate make a difference? If Kamara gets paid, and both guys stick around a while, we’re about to find out.
(At the very least, keeping both would probably make the life of the next quarterback a whole lot easier.)
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THE FINAL WORD
For some reason, it hadn’t hit me that we get to watch Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson go head-to-head in a week until I saw it on social media on Thursday morning. I knew the opener was coming, of course. But beyond it just being the first game, we have a lot to get excited for over the next seven days.
I hope, after all we’ve been through as a country, everyone can put their swords down for a few hours and enjoy it as Americans. Because, after all, there’s nothing more American than football in the fall.
