Mailbag: Should the Browns or Packers Have Made Moves at the Trade Deadline?
The trade deadline came. The trade deadline went. You had questions. I have answers …
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports; Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
From Blake (@h8Smiler): How do you feel about the Browns trying to push to be a playoff team and not addressing the very obvious issues on defense before the deadline?
Blake, I’m actually fine with what the Browns did, in standing pat. I can say they looked creatively at some things. One idea I’d heard kicked around was dealing Olivier Vernon and dealing for Takk McKinley—which, on paper, would’ve given them a motivated, younger player with top-end athleticism to play opposite Myles Garrett. That, of course, didn’t happen, but I liked the ingenuity of the idea when I heard it.
Ultimately, and this is just my guess, I have to think GM Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski were being honest with themselves ahead of the deadline, knowing they’re in a good spot now, but maybe still a year or two from getting the roster where they want it. When you’re in that place, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to start throwing around assets to make a run in a year in which you’re probably a fringe playoff team.
And by the way, being a fringe playoff team is big-time progress in Cleveland. The better news is, if the quarterback comes around, even brighter things may lie ahead. I wouldn’t compromise that for any sort of quick fix.
From Bo Oliver (@BoAOliver): Concerned about all the COVID-19 cases today?
Bo, I am, but only within the same context I was in the summer: I’ve felt all along that the NFL’s ability to navigate this would be related directly to our country’s handling of the virus. Numbers are going up nationwide, which is making it more difficult. And no matter what you think of severity of the virus (and I know everyone seems to have an opinion), the bottom line is that if guys test positive, they won’t play; and if teams have outbreaks, the season will be affected; so it behooves everyone to continue to be as airtight as possible.
Here’s the other thing: I think it’s a little much when there are isolated positive cases and people act like the season should be shut down. Everyone knew what they were getting in to at the outset. The owners wanted to make money. The players wanted to get paid. Almost everyone wanted to play. No one was forced to, as many players did opt out. This, in the end, was part of the bargain. These pro football players live in the U.S., like most of us (but hello to our international readers). So NFL players and personnel were going to get the virus, just like many others in this country.
Overall, I think the NFL has to be overjoyed with the results to this point—and hopeful things don’t keep going in the direction they have in our country of late.
From Gary (@NotTheP0lice): Which QBs in the upcoming draft make sense with SF and Kyle Shanahan? Thanks!
Gary, I think it’s too early to really dive into that. But my sense would be that the top three guys would all be fits. I think Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields would be fits for anyone. Both have shown they can win from the pocket, have great leadership, are smart and carry a strong athletic profile. I know a little less about North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, but I actually had someone tell me in the summer that he’d be a good fit for a Shanahan-style offense (yes, that’s just one scout’s opinion).
I’ll be honest, at this point, I know even less about BYU’s Zach Wilson, although he sure is fun to watch and seems to have a whole bunch of tools.
And much of this question will be tied to how the rest of the Niners’ season goes. I believe pretty deeply that Kyle Shanahan and that staff can coach around a lot. But the injury situation there is approaching critical mass. Which means the idea that San Francisco could land a pick in the top dozen isn’t that wild anymore. So maybe that’s their path to someone like Lance. Like I said, we’ve got a long way to go before we get there.
From James Eisengruber (@jjeisy): Do you see the Lions making a GM change if they decide to let Patricia go?
James, it’s hard to see a scenario where Matt Patricia survives a Bob Quinn firing or Quinn survives a Patricia firing. I also think you can look at the schedule and see a clear path to the Lions’ being square in middle of the NFC playoff race on Dec. 1. There’s a lot of football left to be played, there’s a nice core of players there and it doesn’t hurt anyone to let the rest play out and see where the chips fall.
After that? Well, the ownership situation makes this a little unpredictable. In June, Sheila Ford Hamp took the reins from her mother, Martha Firestone Ford. Martha, like her husband, William Clay Ford, generally exhibited patience and trust in football people she employed. What will Sheila’s approach be? If Quinn and Patricia’s team rallies down the stretch, will that be enough to give them another year? Or does she want to hire her own people?
It’s really hard to say because there’s no track record to go off of.
From mg (@mg11934999): Why didn’t Stephon Gilmore get traded?
MG, my general sense is there wasn’t a great market for him—and that’s no indictment on Gilmore as a player. There are some simple facts that explain it.
1) Ten veteran players have been dealt for a first-round pick or more since April 2018. Gilmore just turned 30. The fact is, a first-round pick, on paper, gives a team a front-line player it has under control for five years, before even getting to the matter of franchise tags. So if you’re going to trade that, it’s hard to bring back a player who isn’t a long-term answer. Gilmore, at 30, isn’t a long-term answer anymore.
2) The salary cap is likely going to sink next year, maybe by as much as $23 million. Gilmore didn’t want to play for $11 million this year, which is why the Patriots moved a chunk of his 2021 money up to 2020. You think he’ll play for $7 million (his cash on the books for ’21) next year? And assuming he doesn’t, given it’s the last year of his deal, you want to guess what it would cost to extend him (see: Ramsey, Jalen; Humphrey, Marlon)? So if you’re looking to trade for Gilmore, you’re talking about giving him a lot more money, which will end up being a bigger percentage of your cap, since the cap is going to go down.
3) Teams are valuing draft picks differently as a result of all this. That’s where a team’s cheap talent comes from. And plenty of teams with big contracts on their books are going to need an influx of that kind of talent over the next few years, given the financial realities looming.
So now, Gilmore goes back to New England, plays out the year, and the Patriots have to figure this out in March. That was always risk in not trading him, that the market for his services then—in an environment where a flood of veteran players could be available—might not be there. We’ll see how it goes.
From Frank Orlando (@frankorlando702): Are the Patriots in for an extended period of mediocrity or are they a few players away from being at the top of AFC East? Is Cam Newton’s career as an NFL starter coming to an end?
Frank, to make you feel a little better on this one, I’ll give you the example of the 2017 New Orleans Saints. Going into that year, I thought they might be one of the worst teams in the league. The roster had decayed, the bills on cap mortgaging had come due and it sure looked like a lengthy rebuild would be necessary. But quietly, the team was optimistic about a rookie class that looked like this:
Round 1 (11): CB Marshon Lattimore
Round 1 (32): OT Ryan Ramczyk
Round 2 (42): S Marcus Williams
Round 3 (67): RB Alvin Kamara
Round 3 (76): LB Alex Anzalone|
Round 3 (103): DE Trey Hendrickson
How good was that group? Consider this: On Sunday against the Bears, Lattimore, Ramczyk and Williams played 100% of the snaps on their sides of the ball, Kamara played 78% of the snaps on offense, and Anzalone and Hendrickson played 63% and 61% of the snaps on defense, respectively. That’s an incredible participation rate for a draft class four years later—and signifies six consecutive hits, which is unheard of.
How did that help them in 2017? Well, suddenly, in a year when their cap chickens were coming home to roost, they suddenly had bargain options all over the field, players that were getting better with time and were drafted into and developed through the Saints’ system. The initial thought I had on the Saints that year? That looked good through two weeks, with consecutive double-digit losses to start the year. And then not so good—the team ripped off eight straight wins from there.
And the benefits kept coming. The Saints are 42–11 since that 0–2 start in 2017. So there’s your answer, Frank—if the Patriots nail the draft in a given year, the turnaround can happen fast.
The one caveat here, of course, is that the Saints had Drew Brees. Which is part of why I feel pretty strongly that the Patriots have to give Cam Newton the rest of the year to figure out what he’s capable of, because he’s the one quarterback on their roster who has the ability, as I see it, to be the answer for them over the next three to five years, the way Alex Smith was for the Chiefs in the pre-Mahomes years of the Andy Reid era.
If Newton can be? That would help a lot, too.
From Jory (@The_Jory14): Is Gettleman the Giants’ GM next year?
Jory, I’m really not sure. His health is obviously a factor, as is the direction of the franchise under Joe Judge. I don’t think it’s too out there to think he could take on a lesser role in time, sort of the way ex–Jets GM Terry Bradway did when Eric Mangini was hired in 2006. And if that does happen, and I think if the Giants wind up, say, 3–13, a lot of things would be in play, my sense is Joe Judge has done enough that the team should at least seriously consider the idea of pairing a fellow Foxboro alum with him.
That’s where you hear Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio’s name. It’s where you’ll hear Titans director of player personnel Monti Ossenfort’s name. It’s where someone a little older, like ex–Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff or ex–Chiefs GM Scott Pioli could come into play. And if the Giants are picking in the top two or three? The stakes only get raised on the Maras’ decision-making in that area.
From Rob Schroeder (@RobSchroeder12): Why does Brian Gutekunst hate me?
From JP (@Yason_Kelly): Big Al, are the Packers officially throwing in the towel now that they have failed to overtrade for that superhero, Will Fuller???? Asking for Packers Twitter, as they’re on fire as we speak.
From moko moon (@BoomMokoMoon): Packers stand pat. Thoughts?
Packers fans seem unhappy with the events of Tuesday. To recap, word got out that Texans WR Will Fuller was on their radar—and receiver-hungry Wisconsinites smelled blood in the water as a result. Then, Tuesday afternoon came and went, and you can guess the fallout that JP is referencing here.
Calmed down? O.K. So I can tell you what happened. The Packers and Texans did, in fact, engage in trade talks on Fuller. Houston was asking for a second-round pick, but my guess is it would’ve settled for a third-rounder, if all else was equal. Green Bay, on the other hand, wanted Houston to take on some of the salary remaining on Fuller’s deal (he’s in a contract year).
Why? Well, the Packers have a little under $8 million in cap space and want to be able to roll over as much into next year as possible, because they have nearly $180 million in cap commitments on the books for 2021. That’s just as it stands now, before adding draft picks, and before signing anyone in free agency or making any trades. And by trading for Fuller, they’d be giving away a draft pick that might help fix the problem.
Bottom line, that, combined with a significant but workable gap in trade compensation, made this one complicated. And that’s not Brian Gutekunst hating you, Rob. It’s actually Gutekunst looking out for you in 2021.
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
From dancmc (@dancmc): Building on your recent MAQB on Garoppolo, do the 49ers think that he can execute everything that Shanahan wants to do in their offense? He is a winner, but is he a game-changer? When healthy, do they think he can he put a team on his back and win the game?
Dan, as I see it, the Niners like Jimmy Garoppolo and are not opposed to finding an upgrade at the position—which makes Garoppolo’s situation in San Francisco somewhat similar to Derek Carr’s situation in Vegas. He’s a fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He’s a great locker room guy. If things are right around him, he can be a very good NFL quarterback. And that’s why I think the comp for both Carr and Garoppolo is Alex Smith in Kansas City.
Smith gave Reid really good quarterback play for five years, and in four of those the Chiefs made the playoffs while the roster was being built up. Eventually, over years of looking at quarterbacks in the draft, Reid and then codirector of player personnel Brett Veach (among others in the building) became smitten with one. And by then, the roster had been built to the point where they could sell off assets to move up and get him.
That player, of course, was Patrick Mahomes.
So if Shanahan’s Mahomes comes along (or Gruden’s Mahomes, for that matter), I think all bets would be off. And if he sees old friends Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins as an upgrade, those guys could be possibilities, too. It wouldn’t shock me to see Sam Darnold in this conversation eventually, either.
But the main thing is this: The 49ers really like their 29-year-old quarterback and could have some options to upgrade soon if they want them. Which isn’t a bad spot to be in.
From Brandyn Pokrass (@BPokrass): When is the earliest Jets fans can expect Adam Gase to be fired?
From Phil (@acejet): Do you think the Jets truly move on from Gase this offseason and if so do they … hire a football guy at the top??
Want some political talk? O.K., here it is—the election could affect this. Woody Johnson is currently serving as President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Great Britain. If Trump loses, Johnson will be back in the States, and probably back in charge of the Jets in short order. If that happens, my belief is that Gase’s time with the Jets will probably be short. If it doesn’t happen? I think he’ll probably still be gone, but part of that might come down to the team’s willingness to eat the last two years of his deal.
As for your question about hiring a “football guy” at the top, I certainly believe GM Joe Douglas deserves more time to prove he can be that guy. He seems to have nailed his first first-round pick with the team (Mekhi Becton), and the rest of the class has flashed some promise. He hasn’t been perfect (letting Robby Anderson go has bitten him), but I think highly enough of Douglas to believe he’ll get good young talent there, given more time.
From Chadwick (@tuckingfenpin): Who is the worst GM in the league and why is it Jerry Jones?
Chadwick, I understand the narrative. I just don’t know how valid it is anymore. Dallas annually fields one of the most talented rosters in football. And lots of people deserve credit for it. Will McClay has been excellent as the team’s personnel chief. Stephen Jones is a huge part of the equation with Jerry, too. All of which is to say while I disagree with some stuff Jerry does, his insistence on retaining the GM title is pretty far down that list.
That said, the next job he (and Stephen and McClay) will have is assessing the state of the offensive line, with Tyron Smith again having issues staying on the field and Travis Frederick gone. All the injury issues, which aren’t new for that group, have made it impossible for the team to manage the Dak Prescott injury, and that’s after the Cowboys made a solid investment in his backup, Andy Dalton.
From Naz_grams (@Bignaz40): What team do you think made the best trade at the deadline?
Hey Naz, give me the Steelers’ acquisition of Avery Williamson. Losing Devin Bush was a pretty serious blow. Williamson, to be clear, isn’t Bush. He’s really a two-down linebacker at this point of his career. But to be able to create a rotation with Vince Williams and Robert Spillane at the inside linebacker spot with a guy who’s started 81 games in the NFL should be huge for a very good defense.
It also sends a nice message to locker room, on how the organization views the current roster and the opportunity it has in front of it.
