An Early Look at the 2023 NFL Quarterback Carousel

Each year a few previously unexpected names hit the market. So here’s an attempt to forecast who could have a new home next season.

Author:
Conor Orr
Publish date:
Aug 26, 2022

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This next offseason lacks the kind of blockbuster QB carousel lineup we knew was coming in January 2022, when Aaron Rodgers threatened to, and Russell Wilson succeeded in, forcing his way off his longtime roster to search for opportunities elsewhere. But it also features the kind of hysterical hype surrounding one blockbuster in particular—the potential whereabouts of the greatest player in NFL history—which will consume us all in an unhealthy way.

Why, on the eve of a new season, do we start talking about maneuvers that might happen following the playoffs? Just look at what happened this offseason, with the NFL penalizing the Dolphins for going after Tom Brady illegally, countless times, over the course of three years. Look at Sean McVay partying with Matt Stafford in Cabo San Lucas the year before. While one was against the rules, these kinds of massive, franchise-altering roster moves have groundwork laid well in advance. So much of what happens in early 2023 will be thanks to the agent, executive and coaching chatter happening now.

With that in mind, welcome to the first spin of the 2023 QB carousel. Below are all the names of players who could end up factoring into our conversation in the coming weeks and months, along with some guesses as to where they might end up playing 12 months from now. Expiring contracts, shaky coaching situations, rising college stars—everything is a factor.

TOM BRADY

Brady said it himself: Most of the time, when he’s talking publicly about his football business, he’s not telling the truth. I’ve long passed the stage of outrage on this. As a reporter covering the NFL, I am not entitled to know Brady’s secret plans and desires. However, as an NFL executive, how would you handle a 46-year-old man who will be on your roster next year having (likely) already secured a slice of ownership, with his prepackaged coach in tow? That would seem to be what it will take to get him to your respective locale and sell out the vacant luxury boxes with his globetrotting pack of billionaire friends. What teams out there are ready to play ball? No offense, Tampa Bay, but it would seem Brady is doing the bare minimum in feigning interest there (if he’s lying at press conferences, doesn’t it stand to reason he’s lying in an Instagram post about how excited he is to take care of unfinished business in Tampa?) He will be available in 2023. Though, it would seem, he probably already knows where he’s headed. The question is where, and what other quarterback—that other motherf-----, as Brady might say—will get jarred loose in the process.

Next stop: This is tough, because Brady, to me, has to end his career in a place that is storied, meaningful and stockpiled with talent. Plus, a place that will likely sweeten the pot in a real and significant way. So here are four possibilities …

• Titans: Why? An ownership group that could use some spice and flair, a coach who is Brady-adjacent (former Patriots teammate Mike Vrabel) and a team ready to win now, quite similar to the Buccaneers. Brady could ride the coattails of the end of Derrick Henry’s run as an every-down alpha running back and bring out the best in Treylon Burks.

• Jets: Why? To end his career in complete hysteria, further establish and launch his fleet of lifestyle brands and use the NFL’s internal promotion machine to hype all post-career aspirations through a pair of in-season matchups with Bill Belichick and Josh Allen. The talent on this roster is pretty good. Brady was eyeing the 49ers when current Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur was working there. Resurrecting a franchise that’s fallen on hard times could be the final feather in his unmatchable cap, as if the Buccaneers weren’t moribund enough.

• Raiders: Why? To ride out his career on the West Coast, throw to Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow, and work in a Patriots-type environment (under longtime OC Josh McDaniels) that suits his tireless drive, while also being flexible to his life schedule at the end of his playing career.

• Bears: Why? Because how cool would that be? Brady waltzing into one of the founding family franchises and erasing decades of misery in one swift release of his throwing shoulder. Matt Eberflus is a McDaniels-approved, brilliant mind who could operate the defense expertly while Brady handles the offense. This would seem unlikely, but also incredibly fun.

LAMAR JACKSON

Barring a deal struck at midnight, it seems Jackson and the Ravens are destined for a game of franchise tag. If Baltimore’s front office could ultimately pull this off, franchising him for a season or two, it would secure itself as one of the most venerable executive groups in modern NFL times. The prospects of a long-term deal for Jackson are prickly. He may want a Deshaun Watson–type deal (i.e., fully guaranteed) without a more sustainable Watson-like set of tools (strictly from a football perspective, of course). Playing Jackson out on a series of one-year deals negates the risk of injury for the Ravens and keeps their team-building options open. Baltimore could sign Jackson to a non-exclusive tag, allow the offers to roll in and give Jackson, who acts as his own agent, more of an idea of what his market looks like elsewhere. Few teams are set up, right now, to run an offense for Jacskon as well as the Ravens are. This could also benefit the Ravens in the long run, as Jackson might be more inclined to take a deal that is already on the table.

Next stop: Back in Baltimore on the franchise tag. I think both sides may end up realizing at some point how good they have it. No other team is set up to get the best out of Jackson. And the Ravens aren’t going to find another Jackson to run this offense.

DEREK CARR

But Derek Carr just signed an extension! you say. However, Carr’s dead-cap money in 2023 is just $5.6 million at the start of the league year. He’ll be 32, having come off one of his best seasons in ’21 followed by a year in Josh McDaniels’s offense. Carr’s extension was structured like a series of one-year deals, which gave McDaniels the benefit of rewarding a core player without the hassle of being tied to Carr long term. If Carr plays well, but not spectacularly this year, it stands to reason that Las Vegas could still get something close to a first-round pick for him on the open market, depending on what else shakes loose and who else is on that market. If Carr plays really well and adapts to McDaniels’s new offense, disregard this message. Still, one has to wonder what the new coach’s long-term vision looks like, and where a quarterback in his early 30s fits into that equation.

Next stop: Back in Las Vegas. I think Carr will play really well this year. I think both sides realize that drafting a player now puts them behind the eight ball in an incredibly crowded and talented division. Carr never really gets treated like a franchise quarterback, and that will change in 2022.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO

This offseason’s least exciting melodrama will extend into 2023. Ultimately, it looks like Garoppolo will become a very high-end, Nick Foles–ian, Andy Dalton–like, Teddy Bridgewater–esque kind of player. He’ll scare an underperforming starter, play adequately in relief and maintain a talent level just close enough to a top-20 passer that some team left out of the quarterback shuffle will hand him a satisfying amount of money each offseason. I don’t think Garoppolo landing with the Seahawks, if that is indeed where he goes after the 49ers release him, would change the idea that he’s destined for a somewhat nomadic path from here on out. Chances are that the Seahawks, or any team signing Garoppolo for ’22, will do so with contractual outs after each year.

Next stop: In Miami. Garoppolo knows the offense, and with patience possibly wearing thin with Tua Tagovailoa, he can get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. He can hold down the fort while the Dolphins take their next ridiculously irresponsible and potentially illegal swing at finding their next Dan Marino.

TUA TAGOVAILOA

It makes no sense for the Dolphins to trade Tagovailoa this coming offseason, given that he’s set to make $1.1 million in 2023. In fact, the Dolphins may end up having one of the more sensible, relaxing offseasons at the position in recent memory. If Tagovailoa displays no higher ceiling, he’ll be worth more as a valuable backup and expiring asset toward the compensatory formula. The Dolphins can point to the body of work in ’22 and say: See? We messed up. Time for McDaniel to pick a guy. Enter Garoppolo in ’23 (partly satisfying the owner’s Brady obsession and pairing Garoppolo with his former offensive coordinator). The Dolphins don’t have the kind of draft capital right now to move up into the top three, given that their own ’23 was forfeited due to the tampering violations and they otherwise own a first-round pick from the 49ers, who likely won’t end up with a top-15 pick. The interesting scenario here is if Tagovailoa ends up playing pretty well, another team gets squeezed out of the carousel and the Dolphins still end up pulling the trigger on a veteran because their owner can’t help himself.

One team that comes to mind? The Giants. Coach Brian Daboll worked on recruiting Tagovailoa when he was with Alabama. Shea Tierney, the Giants’ quarterbacks coach, was also an analyst on the Crimson Tide staff when Tagovailoa was there.

Next stop: Traded to the Giants for a third-round pick and a conditional sixth-round pick. The Giants take a swing at rehabilitating Tagovailoa’s career with familiar faces and allow him to compete for the starting job, or provide high-end upside backup potential, or be a bridge starter to their draft pick of choice.

BAKER MAYFIELD

It’s quite possible that Mayfield plays well this year, the Panthers clean themselves out and start over at the coaching spot and the former top pick hits the QB market as the No. 2 or No. 3 veteran option. It’s also possible that Mayfield can’t operate Carolina’s system on such short notice, or that the system isn’t all that good, and he ends up falling out of consideration through little fault of his own. It’s also possible that Mayfield was never really that good, he struggles to the point where he’s supplanted by Sam Darnold this year and falls into a strange realm of can we even bring him in as a backup (like Cam Newton at the moment)? It’s also possible that Mayfield can make the playoffs in a weakened NFC and sign a short-term extension. But … only one of those four scenarios ends with Mayfield not being on the market next year.

As we’ve illustrated so far on this list, and will continue to note, there could be a handful of quarterback openings on teams that may not be in a position to draft in the top three: (Dolphins, Lions, Titans, Commanders, Bears, Vikings, Falcons, Saints). When healthy and well-schemed, Mayfield is one of the 20 best quarterbacks in the NFL. There are 32 teams. At some point, something has to give.

Next stop: Signing with the Saints or Lions. I have a feeling Mayfield’s season will land somewhere between the polar opposite destinations most of us have fixated on (the Browns fans who suddenly believe their franchise telling them that Mayfield is a failure, and the rest of the sporting world that wants to see Mayfield put up 45 points on Cleveland in Week 1). Ultimately, he may not be an upgrade over Jameis Winston or Jared Goff, but he may be what a franchise is looking for at that time.

DANIEL JONES

One would imagine there’s a sympathetic Daniel Jones hive in the NFL made up of people who believe the quarterback was epically hosed and never had a chance to develop properly. He is, at the most basic levels, big, tough and athletic. The Giants declined Jones’s fifth-year option but would love the idea of Jones’s being rescued by Daboll. Is this likely to happen? The Giants installed their first outside personnel manager since the 1970s in Joe Schoen, who comes from a Bills team that saw its franchise resurrected by a quarterback who outperformed some skittish personnel situations. I don’t know what Schoen thinks of Jones directly, but he has no loyalty to Jones whatsoever and will likely be picking high in the 2023 draft, which will feature, as we see it right now, three potential top-10 quarterbacks. Jones could absolutely be a high-end, developmental bridge prospect.

Next stop: Rehabbing year by backing up Josh Allen in Buffalo, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay or Trey Lance in San Francisco. Jones is smart: If he’s not a career Giant, he’ll put himself in a position to get back into a starting role as soon as possible.

TYLER HUNTLEY

We’ll make this short but sweet. I’m putting Huntley here because he pops every time he takes significant starter’s snaps. He’s a restricted free agent in 2023, and the Ravens would be foolish not to protect him. If, for some reason, they put anything less than a second-round tender on him, I’d be very interested as an opposing general manager.

Next stop: Back in Baltimore, but, man, if I were the Lions, Saints, Jets, Giants, Titans or Texans (among others), I would kick the tires and make this offseason a little difficult for the Ravens.

JUSTIN FIELDS

This is the next phase in my lecture series: Please get Justin Fields some help or at least peace of mind. I think this is the last year the Bears could get back something of significance for Fields if they believe he is not their quarterback of the future, or if they already have plans to chase a veteran elsewhere (like Brady). The idealist in me (again, if I were actually a GM I probably wouldn’t behave this way) would give him an opportunity to revive his career elsewhere. This is going to get a lot of animated feedback from Bears fans, but I’m sure putting Darnold on this list two years ago would have elicited the same response, and look how that played out. The truth is that an incoming coaching staff has no loyalty to a player the franchise drafted before his arrival. That is especially true if a new coach and GM are brought in simultaneously.

Next stop: Likely staying in Chicago, but a starting-over regime in Carolina would be tempting. While I cannot imagine Panthers owner David Tepper going along with trading more draft capital for another discarded franchise QB, he understands the idea of capitalizing on a devalued asset. The Saints could be another place for Fields to quickly revive his career in a very winnable division. The Eagles, if they decide to behave in an Eagles-like way and cut ties with a franchise staple before the person bottoms out, would also be a destination for Fields where he’d have a chance to win now, and the draft equity in return would not prevent Philadelphia from acquiring another No. 1 via the draft.

JARED GOFF

Over Goff’s last five starts in 2022, he completed nearly 70% of his passes and threw 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions. I think we’re all ready to believe in Goff outside of Los Angeles, and it might have been totally unfair by us in the media, and overbearing on the part of Sean McVay, to make Goff seem like the kind of player who couldn’t succeed without an incredibly user-friendly offense. He may, as my podcast co-host Gary Gramling often argues, just be getting better. He’s 27, not 37. That said, the squeeze on the Lions could get real at season’s end. Goff, better than anyone else, knows the realities of that pressure.

Next stop: It would cost relative pennies to release Goff after the 2022 season. The question is where he’d go and what kind of support system he’d have when he gets there. Or, will he play well enough for the Lions to warrant a $30 million cap hit in ’23? The Rams staff that initially drafted Goff is all but dispersed, which means there are few obvious connections there outside of Mike Groh, who is a really smart offensive mind and currently the Giants’ receivers coach. The Sean McVay crew, which includes Shane Waldron (Seahawks), Kevin O’Connell (Vikings) and Brandon Staley (Chargers) are mostly spoken for at the position. If Waldron is held onto by Seattle after this year, Goff could end up being a suitable, hold-the-fort bridge player with scheme familiarity.

MATT RYAN

We’re putting Ryan on this list specifically because the Colts have had a transient recent history with QBs. That said, we expect him to be there for the near future. In the meantime, Indianapolis should keep taking swings at the position in developmental rounds via the draft.

Next stop: Still with the Colts. Ryan is 37, with at least a few solid years left in him. It would make the most sense for him to remain in one place.

RYAN TANNEHILL

Tannehill is 34 and approaching a bit of a train stop moment on his contract. After 2022, the Titans can jump off without much financial concern. The question is whether they’ll want to. As I implied above, if you’re Jon Robinson and Mike Vrabel, do you look at the roster you have now similarly to the way Tampa Bay saw itself before Brady’s arrival? Do you make something happen and pull in a veteran with higher upside? Of course, if Malik Willis flashes potential, he could prove himself to be a long-term answer in Tennessee, but we don’t know how much opportunity a rookie will get for a team built to win now.

Next stop: There is nothing wrong with, or insulting about, the Andy Dalton life from here on out. Tannehill would be the consummate challenge-the-QB backup, he would fit seamlessly into about half of the offenses in the NFL, and, despite his early comments about mentoring Willis, could embrace that role over the next phase of his career. I think Tannehill would be the perfect quarterback for a team deeply entrenched in Super Bowl contention.

CARSON WENTZ

Wentz, like Goff, will sink into contractual no man’s land after this season. His 2023 looks a lot like Jimmy Garoppolo’s ’22, in that there is no financial recourse to simply letting him go if the Commanders have a better option. His job this year should be to create enough mystery about his potential in the near future to earn some slack. If Garoppolo is having a hard time doing that, imagine what Wentz would have to do to earn our collective benefit of the doubt. I think Washington could hover around seven to nine wins if things break right for them this year. This would be the best-case scenario for Wentz, who could play himself into a low-end, Derek Carr–like extension with year-by-year increments.

Next stop: In a lot of ways, Wentz and the Commanders seem perfect for each other. This team is also not going to draw a top veteran. Ron Rivera is too good a coach to land in the top five in the draft. So they’ll need to bet on potential in these situations.

JAMEIS WINSTON

Winston has a contract befitting of a two-year player, though the $10 million in dead cap he would cost in 2023 is not prohibitive if New Orleans moves in another direction. Dalton is under contract only for this season. The Saints were in on Watson long enough for people to notice, which means they were not entirely thrilled with the prospect of attaching themselves to Winston long-term. The pay-as-you-go attitude could leave the Saints big-game hunting again this offseason, and leave Winston a casualty.

Next stop: As we’ve mentioned, the teams that need quarterbacks, or might need quarterbacks, are obvious at this point. Winston, to me, represents the dividing line between a player you could talk yourself into for one season and a player who would be best served as a backup. Would you bring him into Chicago to push Fields in a third season? Would you, if you’re the Broncos or Chiefs, want high-end backup insurance for your star quarterback?

MARCUS MARIOTA

If Mariota—who is essentially on a one-year contract that the Falcons will work their way out of after this season—plays well this year, my prediction is that he’ll become the next Tyrod Taylor or Jacoby Brissett. He’ll start early-season games and remain a valuable in-case-of-emergency option off the bench.

Next stop: If the Jets decide to part ways with Joe Flacco after this offseason, Mariota would be a solid competitive presence behind Zach Wilson. If the Ravens lose Jackson or Huntley, Mariota would be a great Robert Griffin III stand-in.

LIGHTNING ROUND

The quarterbacks listed below might end up factoring into some kind of training camp battle or, in some cases, a stretch scenario as an emergency starter due to a training camp injury, or as a hyper-preferential, hold-the-fort option for a new head coach.

• Jordan Love

• Drew Lock

• Geno Smith

• Sam Darnold

• Nick Foles

• Mitch Trubisky

• Teddy Bridgewater

• Joe Flacco

• Tyrod Taylor

• Gardner Minshew

• Taylor Heinicke

• Jacoby Brissett

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