Here’s What’s Holding Back Russell Wilson With the Broncos
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Back from New York (here’s what I wrote on the Jim Irsay–Daniel Snyder news there), and now ready for your questions …
From Josh Turnbaugh (@Turns31): WTF is wrong with Russ?
Josh, this is my opinion, and one I expressed in the Oct. 10 MMQB column after talking to a bunch of people who worked with Russell Wilson in Seattle—I think there’s a way you have to deploy Wilson to get the most out of him as a player. And I know some people are convinced that Wilson doesn’t want to be deployed the way he was in Seattle, which was one source of friction between the player and the team over his last few years playing for the Seahawks.
When the Seahawks tried opening up the offense and having Wilson play the position from the pocket in the dropback game, it really didn’t work. Conversely, when the Seahawks used Wilson as a runner and ran hard play-action and moved the pocket, they got him playing fast and created open spaces for him to throw.
Which is to say for all the talk about Wilson proving that height doesn’t matter, it actually does, even with him at 5'11". There have been times over the years when he’s come back to the sideline and, asked by coaches why he missed a receiver over the middle, the answer was, “Because I couldn’t see him.” You can even see it now, where a lot of his biggest plays the past few weeks have come when he’s been on the move.
Wilson’s struggles in Denver has been one of the biggest story lines of the NFL season.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
I understand why Wilson would want to play the game like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. But if that’s not what you are as a player, for better and for worse, then it doesn’t help anyone to keep shoving a square peg into a round hole. So, again, in my opinion, the Broncos need to find a way to separate Wilson from his desire to play a certain way and do what’s best for Denver, which is to incorporate what Wilson did best when he grew into one of the NFL’s most valuable players in Seattle.
The hard thing about it, I’m sure, would be conceding the Seahawks were right. But I think the faster it happens, the better the Broncos will be. And I 100% believe Nathaniel Hackett has plenty in his bag to get it done.
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From Old Glory (@s38tX4LefIZBklT): DO YOU HAVE ZAPPE FEVER?!?!?!?!? hahahahaha
From HJ (@HallJoe15): Jones/Zappe controversy?
Glory (I gave him that nickname because his display name was actually a bunch of American flag emoji) and Joe, no, I don’t have the fever (yet), and, no, I don’t think there’s a controversy.
I’ll reiterate that one more time: I think Mac Jones is going to get his job back.
That said, Jones, according to those who know him, has always been a big “why” guy, like many of his generation. He was that way at Alabama. He’s been that way with the Patriots. There’s a lot of good and some bad to it. My understanding is it led to questions on the team’s decision making (coaching, scheme, etc.), and Bill Belichick, true to his generation, has never been big on explaining the ins and outs of those things.
Then came Jones’s high-ankle injury and the question of whether to get tightrope surgery, and there was friction. And I think the past three weeks have given Belichick and his staff a chance to show Jones, who’d had a problem turning the ball over early in the year—here’s what we’re trying to do, if you follow the coaching. There’s also, I think, a process of paring down the offense that was ongoing when Jones was in, and continued with Bailey Zappe in. They also implemented some spread-scheme adaptation to help Zappe, whose background is all spread.
So as I see this, Zappe was the beneficiary of some favorable circumstances, and the Patriots should, and will, go back to Jones when Jones is healthy.
But I’d also say Zappe did some really nice things, and, after watching him, a comp popped into my head (one I ran by some NFL folks) that I think really works—he’s Case Keenum. And to help illustrate this situation, if you believe he can be that, and you buy that Jones has some strong similarities to Kirk Cousins (a comp a few coaches have given me for him in the past), then seeing what the Vikings did five years ago can be instructive.
If you remember, coming off the bench, Keenum got them to an NFC title game in January 2018. Two months later, it didn’t stop Minnesota from breaking the bank to replace him with, yup, Cousins. So, sure, I think Zappe’s game Sunday in Cleveland was probably the Patriots’ best-quarterbacked game of ’22 to this point. He showed pocket awareness, some pop on his throws, good feet and a ton of command. But it doesn’t mean he’s the long-term answer.
Or, more to the point, that Jones isn’t.
From TFB (@TheSportzNutt): Who are some of your HC candidates to watch for the Carolina Panthers? Do you think the Panthers move CMC, D.J. Moore, Burns before the trade deadline?
TFB, a big part of this rides on the direction owner David Tepper takes his coaching search—will he lead the way? Will he have GM Scott Fitterer next to him? Will his ability to land a certain coach dictate Fitterer’s future? And how will the failure with Matt Rhule affect his willingness to chase a coach with multiple suitors who’ll command big money?
My gut tells me Sean Payton will be an early target, and I’d bet that dies quickly. Payton doesn’t need to go to a place where there’s just one quarterback under contract for 2023, and that quarterback is a third-round rookie (Matt Corral) who’s missing his first year injured. And even if Payton did want to go there, it seems doubtful the Saints would agree to trade his rights within the division.
After Payton, if you’re looking for someone who would align with Fitterer, it would have to be Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who knows the division well from his time with the Falcons, and is capable of assembling a really strong staff (his first group in Atlanta was really, really good). There are other defensive coordinator names, too, such as the 49ers’ DeMeco Ryans, Eagles’ Jonathan Gannon, Patriots’ Jerod Mayo (he doesn’t have the DC title, but has a lot of those responsibilities) and the Rams’ Raheem Morris, who are viable candidates.
The question then for Tepper would be the one that’ll face a lot of teams in the next hiring cycle—should the quality of the names on the defensive side supersede an owner’s desire to hire an offensive head coach? And that one’s especially relevant in this case, given Tepper’s personal drive the past few years to get the quarterback position right. There’s a long way to go on this, but there’s plenty to chew on already.
Mahomes is playing a different style than we saw early in his career.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
From DT58 (@DT5812): Will Mahomes ever go deep again ?
DT, I actually think Patrick Mahomes’s willingness to play the short game is a really great sign of growth. And I’ve talked to him a couple of times over the past few months about this.
Here’s what he said to me in August on the subject, when I asked how all the two-high looks he and the Chiefs faced in 2021, combined with breaking in a completely overhauled offensive line, forced him to evolve.
“My decision-making is quicker, being able to get the ball out of my hand,” he told me. “Obviously, when we had guys like Tyreek [Hill], you always look for that matchup and if you had it, you would take it. But when you get the defenses rolling coverage, like what they’re doing in training camp especially, and they’re getting deep, it’s just getting through to the second and third read and getting the ball out of my hand and letting these guys make plays.
“The thing about this receiving core that we have: It’s deep. There are guys everywhere. So there’s not one that you’re kinda focusing on every single time. You’re just getting through your reads, getting it to the right decision and letting those guys make plays.”
How’s that worked out? The Chiefs have five receivers with at least 15 catches through six games, and Mahomes has a 106.1 passer rating, and is on pace to throw for more than 4,600 yards and 48 touchdowns. So any problems there, I assure you, are champagne problems that might catch up to them in late January or February against teams such as the Bills, but are probably fine for now.
From James Mills (@JamesKMillsIII): With the firing of Jack Easterby, is the clock ticking on Texans GM Nick Caserio?
James, Caserio signed a six-year, $30 million deal with the Texans in 2021, and Houston gave him that deal for a reason—the Texans knew a long build was ahead. Since then, he’s really had a draft class and a half (the supply of ’21 picks was completely depleted), and he’s made the team younger, and got about as much as you could’ve expected for Deshaun Watson. So I think there’s merit to sticking to the plan.
The biggest questions, of course, relate to his handling of the coaches. He led the hire of David Culley, fired him after a year, and installed his defensive coordinator, Lovie Smith, as the replacement. It’s fair to ask whether Smith’s the long-term answer, given his age (64), latest coaching history with the Bucs and at Illinois, and the early returns on the 2022 team.
But I do think Caserio will get at least another year. And, honestly, I think he’s earned that much in his handling of a number of thorny situations that weren’t his fault. I also think it’s what’s best for the Texans, and at this point it really doesn’t connect much to the ouster of Easterby, who ceded control to Caserio, anyway.
From DLoutsis (@DLoutsis): How impressive has the Seahawks’ rookie class been?
From I'm a Bengals Fan Now! (@DonRidenour): Pete Carroll getting any love for coach of the year??
D and Don, very and yes. And the cool thing is the Seahawks really did see this coming over the spring and summer once they got those guys in the building. Charles Cross and Abe Lucas could be 10-year bookends at the tackle spots, Kenneth Walker III’s flashed at tailback and will get plenty of work with Rashaad Penny down, Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant adapted fast and look like real players at corner, and Boye Mafe is a starter and already an effective edge rusher.
Seattle’s been looking for this kind of draft breakthrough for a while. With the Wilson trade having just happened, 2022 certainly looked like a critical year for the franchise from that standpoint. And early on, it sure looks like GM John Schneider and Carroll crushed it.
As for Carroll getting Coach of the Year love, I’d pump the brakes slightly on that since the team is only 3–3. But what you can say is it looks like a lot of his decision-making over the past decade has been vindicated—and he wasn’t ever holding anyone back.
From JLK7299 (@JLK7299): Will the 49ers ever be able to field a varsity team?
I think you’ll see a much healthier 49ers team in two weeks or so. And maybe you’ll get Nick Bosa back this week, with the Chiefs coming to Levi’s.
From Duke Ratanakarn (@sanddune80): Your take on the coaching decision to start Heinicke over the rookie Sam Howell? #HTTC #Commanders
Duke, I understand why fans want to see Howell. You all know who Taylor Heinicke is, having watched him play two-plus seasons, and there’s the allure of the unknown. It’s also fair to say the Commanders are pretty high on Howell. They’d decided against taking a quarterback going into the weekend of the draft but had too high a grade on him to pass on him again when he was sitting there in the fifth round.
But this isn’t just about the quarterback. It’s about the other 10 guys in the huddle, too. The Commanders are 2–4. And while that’s not any huge success, it puts them a game out of the NFC playoff picture with 11 games to go. This is also Ron Rivera’s third year, so it’s not like they’re starting a rebuild here. There also aren’t many players in any locker room who are overly concerned with who’s starting at QB and what that will mean for the franchise in future years.
So Rivera really has to do what’s best for the guys there and now, and, in turning to Heinicke, you’re going to a player who’s well-liked and respected by his teammates. He will give the coaches the chance to run something closer to the playbook they did over their first two years in Washington—with Heinicke running it in Minnesota and Carolina. That’s why, in a certain way, I’d think guys such as Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are excited to see what the offense can do with Heinicke.
And from a big-picture perspective, I think it’ll give the Commanders a more complete look at where Carson Wentz stands, having played six games for the team. Again, I do get why people like the idea of going to Howell—for the same reason a lot of Patriots fans wanted Zappe over Brian Hoyer a few weeks ago. I’d just tell you that, for the here and now, I also get why the team sees Heinicke as its best option.
From Tom Marshall (@aredzonauk): How much are the Ravens missing Wink Martindale?
Tom, I’m actually not sure the Ravens aren’t rounding into shape defensively. Improved health on the back end has helped, and there’s talent on hand. On Sunday, they held the Giants to 238 yards (the number was 148 going into the fourth quarter) and under three yards per carry. And while the 75-yard drive yielded thereafter to draw New York to within three wasn’t ideal, and you’d like to have kept the hosts out of the end zone after Julian Love picked off Lamar Jackson and put the ball on the Ravens’ 13, the defense mostly did its job.
That also came on the heels of an effort the week before in which Joe Burrow was held to an 82.7 quarterback rating, Ja’Marr Chase was held to 50 yards and the Bengals as a whole gained just 291 yards.
Of course, there were fourth-quarter issues in that game, too, and I’m not exonerating the Bengals for that. I just think it was probably always going to take some patience, in going through that sort of change, and I think there’s promise that Mike Macdonald, if you look at how his defense came alive at Michigan last year as the season wore on, will get more and more comfortable in his new role.
Martindale, to be clear, did a phenomenal job in Baltimore, and he’s doing great things with the Giants. He was always going to be missed. But as both he and John Harbaugh said last week, things had run their course in that relationship, and everyone needed a fresh start. It makes sense, if you really look at it, that the separation would be a little rockier at first for the Ravens than it was for Martindale. But I’d be hopeful the worst is behind them.
From Justin Brennan (@JMB8276): Top 5 college QBs?
Justin, I’d assume you’re talking about them as NFL prospects, and only the draft-eligible kind (so I’ll exclude USC’s Caleb Williams and Texas’s Quinn Ewers). The two easiest ones to ID are Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. Kentucky’s Will Levis is right there, too. I’d give you Florida’s Anthony Richardson as the fourth guy. And call me a prisoner of the moment, but I’d make Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker my fifth, with the feeling that he’s probably a solid Day 2 pick.
Obviously, we’ve got a lot of work to do on those guys over the next six months. Always look forward to that.
From Phil (@SauceCoach): Are the Kyler Murray / Russell Wilson / Deshaun Watson contracts and the aftermath of them going to change how qb contracts are negotiated by teams? (Watson the outlier of course)
Phil, the short answer is no. I don’t think the Browns have a single regret, but I could understand if the Cardinals and Broncos do. But here’s the thing that always keeps the quarterback market moving and gets good players a great rate—the alternative to not having one can be ugly. The Panthers tried to stay patient, and really swing at only very high-end options (Matthew Stafford, Watson), and Matt Rhule paid for it with his job. Rivera and the Commanders are now in a similar boat.
So it’s really easy to say, Hey, maybe the Cardinals shouldn’t have extended Murray so soon. There’s definitely merit to the idea, too. The problem from there, to simplify would be … and then what? It’s a question that’s gotten a lot of quarterbacks over the years paid at the top of the market that maybe belong a notch or two below that. And it’s a trend that’ll probably continue for the foreseeable future.
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