NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs No. 1, Surprise Team in Top 10
With 18 weeks of football now in the books, the playoff field is all set. Of course, here at The MMQB we’ll move on to postseason predictions very soon, but let’s first take one more look at how all 32 teams stack up.
How wide open is it at the top? The Chiefs are No. 1, but five different teams received first-place votes from our panel of eight voters. Meanwhile, the Lions are the top-rated team to miss out on the playoffs, while the Seahawks were the lowest among teams to qualify.
Down at the very bottom, the Bears and Texans had a battle for the No. 1 pick, but neither brings up the rear on this list.
This week’s MMQB Power Rankings Poll voters:
Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Conor Orr, senior writer
Greg Bishop, senior writer
Michael Rosenberg, senior writer
Andrew Brandt, business of football columnist
John Pluym, managing editor
Gary Gramling, senior editor
Mitch Goldich, editor
Is this the year the Bills get past the Chiefs in the playoffs?
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14–3)
Points in poll: 247
Highest-place vote: 1 (3 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 6 (1 vote)
Next week: First-round bye
Remember this offseason, when one of the top story lines was the amount of talent in an AFC West that had likely caught up to the Chiefs? Well, here we are on the eve of the playoffs, with Kansas City the No. 1 seed, looking for a fifth-straight AFC title game appearance and a possible third Super Bowl trip in four years.
2. Buffalo Bills (13–3)
Points in poll: 246
Highest-place vote: 1 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 4 (1 vote)
Next week: vs. Miami
The Bills had a chance to play for the top seed before their Week 17 game against the Bengals was canceled, but multiple voters in our panel believe the AFC’s No. 2 seed is the best team in football, and Buffalo will have a chance to prove it over the next month.
3. San Francisco 49ers (13–4)
Points in poll: 238
Highest-place vote: 1 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 5 (1 vote)
Next week: vs. Seattle
The Niners are on their third starting quarterback of the season, but they enter the playoffs on a 10-game winning streak and with the NFL’s best point differential. This has been the type of season San Francisco expected, even if the route there was not quite as pictured.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (14–3)
Points in poll: 235
Highest-place vote: 1 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 5 (3 votes)
Next week: First-round bye
The Eagles were the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team and raced out to a 13–1 start that put them on the brink of clinching home field advantage early. They finished things out a little shakily, but should have an even healthier Jalen Hurts after the bye, along with a fearsome pass rush and great cornerback play.
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5. Cincinnati Bengals (12–4)
Points in poll: 233
Highest-place vote: 1 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 5 (3 votes)
Next week: vs. Baltimore
The Bengals are in fifth place in our rankings but did garner one first-place vote. Last year’s AFC champs started the season 4–4 before reeling off eight straight wins to finish the schedule. If the bracket holds to form, they’ll get that highly anticipated rematch with Buffalo in the divisional round after their first matchup was suspended.
6. Dallas Cowboys (12–5)
Points in poll: 211
Highest-place vote: 5 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 9 (1 vote)
Next week: at Tampa Bay
The Cowboys’ 12 wins are more than any other second-place team in the NFL. Their reward for a fine season that included surviving a stretch with Cooper Rush playing for Dak Prescott? A trip to Tampa to play against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, though the Cowboys are favored on the road.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (10–7)
Points in poll: 205
Highest-place vote: 6 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 9 (1 vote)
Next week: at Jacksonville
The Chargers were about as close as you can get to making the playoffs in 2021 before coming up short in the final game of the season. This year, they broke through for the franchise’s first playoff berth since ’18. Justin Herbert will now join the other elite QBs in a stacked AFC bracket.
8. Minnesota Vikings (13–4)
Points in poll: 196
Highest-place vote: 6 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 15 (1 vote)
Next week: vs. New York Giants
The Vikings have been one of the most polarizing teams in the league all year, with their 13–4 record and negative point differential. Our panelists mostly agreed this was a pretty good team, a tier below the true contenders but comfortably ahead of the teams hovering around .500.
9. Baltimore Ravens (10–7)
Points in poll: 192
Highest-place vote: 7 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 10 (4 votes)
Next week: at Cincinnati
The Ravens have had an eventful season, blowing big leads earlier in the year when they had Lamar Jackson and then losing games in a more conventional fashion without him. But if their former MVP can come back healthy for the postseason, this is still the same team that played the Bills to the wire in Week 4 and then beat the Bengals in Week 5.
The Jaguars are headed to the playoffs, and should probably get used to it with Lawrence under center.
Melina Myers/USA TODAY Sports
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (9–8)
Points in poll: 187
Highest-place vote: 8 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 12 (1 vote)
Next week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Jaguars are a top-10 team! Doug Pederson’s group was 3–7, four full games behind the Titans, and not only caught them but topped Tennessee by two games. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and the team is now officially ahead of schedule. They have a winnable home playoff game ahead of them and then likely even higher expectations next year.
11. New York Giants (9-7-1)
Points in poll: 165
Highest-place vote: 9 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 18 (1 vote)
Next week: at Minnesota
Speaking of rebuilding teams ahead of schedule … Brian Daboll got his team into the playoffs in his first year in New York after a string of five-straight 10-plus-loss seasons. The team cooled down the stretch after a 7–2 start, but fans can feel much better about a team now moving in the right direction.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–9)
Points in poll: 160
Highest-place vote: 11 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 15 (1 vote)
Next week: vs. Dallas
When Tom Brady decided to unretire after his brief hiatus last offseason, he probably didn’t expect to return to the first below-.500 season of his career. Maybe the Bucs would have beaten the Falcons in Week 18 if they’d had to, but they were able to wrap up a pretty sorry NFC South a week early to give Brady his astounding 20th trip to the postseason.
T-13. Detroit Lions (9–8)
Points in poll: 150
Highest-place vote: 11 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 18 (1 vote)
Season result: Second place in NFC North
The Lions are one of the feel-good stories of the year for the way they fought down the stretch to climb back over the .500 mark and then toppled the Packers in Week 18 to knock their rivals out of the playoffs in prime time. They will not be one of the 14 teams in the postseason field, but our panel does think they are one of the 14 best teams in the league right now.
T-13. Miami Dolphins (9–8)
Points in poll: 150
Highest-place vote: 12 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 17 (2 votes)
Next week: at Buffalo
It must be hard for Dolphins fans not to be wondering what could have been, given how well the team played with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup and how much their season was derailed by his multiple concussions. Still, it looks like Mike McDaniel was a slam-dunk hire after his first season in charge, and the team is essentially playing with house money in a playoff date with the Bills.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (9–8)
Points in poll: 146
Highest-place vote: 12 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 17 (1 vote)
Season result: Third place in AFC North
The Steelers’ transition out of the Ben Roethlisberger era looks to have gone well. Mike Tomlin didn’t want to rush Kenny Pickett onto the field in Week 1, but the rookie eventually got playing time and the wins followed. Pittsburgh started 2–6 and 3–7, but clawed back to keep Tomlin’s streak of never finishing below .500 alive.
16. Seattle Seahawks (9–8)
Points in poll: 144
Highest-place vote: 11 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 17 (2 votes)
Next week: at San Francisco
The Seahawks sure look like they moved on from Russell Wilson at the exact right time. Coming out of that deal with a trade haul from the Broncos that now includes the No. 5 pick would have been enough. Add to that the fact that Seattle drafted an outstanding rookie class and that Geno Smith led this team to the playoffs, and you’ve got about as good a season as you could have hoped for.
Rodgers will once again be one of the biggest questions of the offseason.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK
17. Green Bay Packers (8–9)
Points in poll: 142
Highest-place vote: 12 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 20 (1 vote)
Season result: Third place in NFC North
After three straight 13-win seasons ended in playoff disappointment, the Packers decided to try something new, bowing out to the Lions in a de facto playoff contest on Sunday Night Football in Week 18. There will obviously be offseason questions about Aaron Rodgers, but this team has more than just that to figure out.
18. New England Patriots (8–9)
Points in poll: 133
Highest-place vote: 10 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 18 (5 votes)
Season result: Third place in AFC East
The Patriots have now missed the playoffs in two of three seasons since Tom Brady skipped town, and this was the most beleaguered Bill Belichick has been in decades after a year with, let’s say, unorthodox, coaching decisions backfired about as much as possible. Mac Jones showed plenty of promise as a rookie and heard the home fans chanting for Bailey Zappe in Year 2. If not for the fact that New England’s defense and special teams scored a touchdown seemingly every week, this season could have been even uglier.
19. Washington Commanders (8-8-1)
Points in poll: 107
Highest-place vote: 19 (6 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 23 (1 vote)
Season result: Fourth place in NFC East
If you told Commanders fans in September that the team would go 8-8-1, miss the playoffs, unveil a pigman mascot and Dan Snyder would announce intentions to sell the team, most of them probably would have gladly taken it.
20. Tennessee Titans (7–10)
Points in poll: 91
Highest-place vote: 19 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 24 (1 vote)
Season result: Second place in AFC South
A year ago the Titans were the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Then they traded away A.J. Brown, fired their GM midseason, lost seven straight games to close out the year and look to be in a very different state as a franchise. The fact that Josh Dobbs came off the Lions’ practice squad to come start for Tennessee in a must-win game with playoff ramifications cannot be a good sign for Malik Willis.
21. New Orleans Saints (7–10)
Points in poll: 89
Highest-place vote: 20 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 24 (2 votes)
Season result: Third place in NFC South
The Saints tried to ride out a smooth transition from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen, but having already dealt their first-round pick to the Eagles, may need to hope some team wants Payton so they can get draft capital to enter 2023 with a better solution at quarterback than this season’s Andy Dalton–Jameis Winston QB battle.
22. New York Jets (7–10)
Points in poll: 87
Highest-place vote: 16 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 25 (2 votes)
Season result: Fourth place in AFC East
The Jets’ 7–4 start showed some promising signs of progress in Year 2 under Robert Saleh. The injury bug contributed to the six-game season-ending skid, but this looks like a team not far away from a real turnaround if it can solve the QB position. In that regard, the year was a disaster for Zach Wilson. But between Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (when he’s back), there’s some real young talent on this roster.
23. Carolina Panthers (7–10)
Points in poll: 86
Highest-place vote: 20 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 25 (1 vote)
Season result: Second place in NFC South
No coach entered 2022 on a hotter seat than Matt Rhule, so it was not a surprise when he was fired midseason. But it was a bit of a surprise that interim coach Steve Wilks had the same team play .500 ball over the final 12 games of the year and made a case for the job full-time. The Panthers have struck out in the high-end of the QB market in recent years. Will they make a big play this offseason?
24. Cleveland Browns (7–10)
Points in poll: 75
Highest-place vote: 21 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 28 (1 vote)
Season result: Fourth place in AFC North
Deshaun Watson’s trade, contract, suspension, ongoing lawsuits and return to the field was one of the biggest stories of the last year in the NFL. Then he played so poorly upon his return that on many of his six game days, he and the Browns were afterthoughts. This team is no closer to contending than it was 12 months ago.
25. Las Vegas Raiders (6–11)
Points in poll: 74
Highest-place vote: 19 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 28 (1 vote)
Season result: Third place in AFC West
The Raiders set records this year for their ability to blow large leads quickly, which is not exactly what you want to be known for. How much of that is something innate about this team, and how much is regression that will potentially work its way out next year? That’s the big question for any free agents (cough, Tom Brady, cough) who may be deciding whether to swing by now that Derek Carr is on his way out.
26. Atlanta Falcons (7–10)
Points in poll: 58
Highest-place vote: 23 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 27 (2 votes)
Season result: Fourth place in NFC South
The Falcons were never really a threat this season, but also managed to hang in a class above the true bottom-dwellers of the league. Arthur Smith now has a pair of 7–10 seasons under his belt as he goes about a rebuild no one expected to take place overnight.
Matthew Stafford says he will be back next year. Will Sean McVay return to coach him?
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
27. Los Angeles Rams (5–12)
Points in poll: 53
Highest-place vote: 25 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 28 (2 votes)
Season result: Third place in NFC West
The Rams just had the worst season a defending Super Bowl champ has ever had. We knew the all-in strategy would catch up to them at some point, but few thought it would come this soon. Still, there is a hope that with better health this team could return to contender status. Let’s see how many members of the championship core (and coaching staff) are back in 2023.
28. Denver Broncos (5–12)
Points in poll: 36
Highest-place vote: 27 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 30 (1 vote)
Season result: Fourth place in AFC West
Denver may not be last in our poll, but there’s no doubt the Broncos had the most disappointing season of any team in the league. Nathaniel Hackett went one-and-done as a coach, and Russell Wilson played so poorly that some fans are convincing themselves the astronomical dead-cap hit it would take to cut him would be worth it.
29. Arizona Cardinals (4–13)
Points in poll: 32
Highest-place vote: 27 (3 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 31 (1 vote)
Season result: Fourth place in NFC West
Kliff Kingsbury is now out after four years, with a 28-37-1 record and a lone playoff appearance (which only featured a blowout loss), after a run that began with so much intrigue. The Cardinals bottomed out after they looked like real contenders midway through 2021. Now they face the challenge of trying to turn things around, while Kyler Murray rehabs from a torn ACL.
30. Chicago Bears (3–14)
Points in poll: 25
Highest-place vote: 28 (1 vote)
Lowest-place vote: 32 (1 vote)
Season result: Fourth place in NFC North
The Bears have an interesting offseason ahead, after locking up the No. 1 pick in the draft Sunday. Given the flashes of brilliance Justin Fields showed when—a season and a half into his career—the team made it a priority for him to run the ball more, the team could trade the pick to bring in a lot of capital to build around him.
31. Houston Texans (3-13-1)
Points in poll: 16
Highest-place vote: 30 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 32 (2 votes)
Season result: Fourth place in AFC South
Good for Lovie Smith, who coached his guys to keep playing hard in the final month of the season. A thrilling last-second win in Week 18 cost the team a shot at the No. 1 pick, and it may have ripple effects that haunt the Texans for a decade or more. But the draft is such a crapshoot, anyway, it was fun to see a team try to win.
32. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)
Points in poll: 15
Highest-place vote: 29 (2 votes)
Lowest-place vote: 32 (5 votes)
Season result: Third place in AFC South
The Colts did not finish with the worst record in the league, but they earned a spot in dead last thanks to the comically hapless way the Jeff Saturday interim era went. Can Jim Irsay really bring him back next year? Only he knows.
