Bengal Bets: Picks for Cincinnati Bengals-New York Jets Matchup

After a 3-3 start it's time to get on the winning side of the ledger.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Sep 23, 2022 7:31 AM EDT
Original:
Sep 22, 2022

In this story:

CINCINNATI — Week 2 was another disappointing outing for the Cincinnati Bengals in a 20-17 loss to the Cowboys, but the Bengal Bets came away with a W. We are back after a 2-1 week where Dallas easily covered the spread and Evan McPherson banged multiple field goals.

Unfortunately, the rushing woes (21.6% success rate thru Week 2, last in NFL) continued, and Joe Mixon (57 yards) couldn't get past 72.5 rushing yards. Let's make it two winning weeks in a row.

Here are the Bengal Bets for Sunday's game against the New York Jets.

Season Record: 3-3 (-0.22 Units)

Joe Mixon O18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I do not understand this number at all. Mixon's role in the passing game has only grown every single year in Zac Taylor's offense, and his receiving chops should be a great way to give this struggling offense opportunities for easy yardage.

Moving from narrative to numbers, The Bengals' bell-cow back has gone over 18.5 yards in seven of his past 10 games, including both 2022 contests. The Jets are also struggling to contain running back catches under head coach Robert Saleh.

They allowed the sixth most targets to RBs last year (7.5 per game) and the second-most receiving yards (54.8 yards per game). Flash forward to 2022 and things aren't shaking the narrative much. Saleh's crew is 15th in yards allowed (37 yards per game) and t-ninth in targets (five per game). I expect Quinnen Williams and the Jets interior to get a push on the inside, leading to more dump-offs for Mixon.

Tyler Boyd O34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The first two weeks of the season have been a mess for Tyler Boyd, who has six catches for 50 yards. I like his chances of getting the engine roaring a bit this week, and we get 5-6 yards of value because of that slow start.

New York's pass defense is lacking. They are 21st in adjusted yards per attempt (7.6), and 24th in QB rating allowed. Analytically, it gets much worse. New York is 31st in defensive dropback EPA (0.354), and 27th in dropback success rate (52.9%). The bottom line is Boyd will have plenty of chances in this game, especially from the slot.

That's been a problem for New York through two weeks after allowing Amari Cooper to catch 3-of-3 targets in the slot for 43 yards. In Week 1, Mark Andrews operated from the slot and totaled five catches for 52 yards. Boyd sees 89% of his targets from this alignment and posted five receptions for 69 yards and 1 TD against New York last season.

Buy low on Boyd in the Meadowlands.

Bengals -2.5 (-188, SI Sportsbook)

I'm going with an adjusted line in this one to get across the key number of three. Boy has that number been key for Cincinnati, which has now played five-straight games decided by exactly three points.

The first two bred pure elation—the last two not so much. Yet, I'm going back to the well with Joe Burrow as he essentially faces a pseudo-elimination game (Only six teams in NFL history have started 0-3 and made the playoffs).

When the Bengals win, they are covering the spread. That's happened in 16 of the team's past 17 wins all while the Jets are in a bad spot trendwise.

Robert Saleh is 6-12 ATS as an underdog head coach and 3-8 ATS (27%) as a one-score dog.
Since 2010, winless teams are 45-29-1 against the spread (ATS) when not facing another winless team in Week 3 for a 60.8% cover rate with an 18% return on investment (ROI). Those same teams that also made the playoffs are 11-6 ATS, covering by 5.1 PPG.
The Jets have failed to cover in five of their past six games as a home underdog.

On top of all that, there is no better defense to get right against after a disastrous two weeks than a Jets unit that ranks last in defensive DVOA by 7%. That's the same difference between No. 31 and No. 24—downright awful.

The secondary is largely to blame (32nd in passing DVOA, 55.4%) and represents the perfect elixir to Cincinnati's ailments.

The game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. Watch on fuboTV, start your free trial here. For more on the Bengals, watch the video below and subscribe to our YouTube Channel.

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