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Bengals at Chiefs: What To Watch For In The AFC Championship Game

Will Cincinnati pull off the upset on the road?

Author:
Mike Santagata
Publish date:
Jan 29, 2022 9:55 AM EST

The Chiefs are significant favorites in Sunday's matchup against the Bengals, even though they beat Kansas City in Week 17.

They have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium, which is one of the loudest venues in all of sports. The Chiefs are also healthier than they were, so this is going to be a much bigger challenge.

Let’s dive into what we should all be watching for in the AFC Championship Game.

Controlling The Clock

More than most weeks, I think that controlling the clock is one of the keys to this game. There has been a lot of talk about how the Bengals held the Chiefs to three points in the second half of the last game, but what is not being talked about enough is how they limited the Chiefs to just three possessions in the final two quarters.

Taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands and really magnifying any stops or turnover the defense can get is huge. They will need the offense to go on a few efficient, time-consuming drives for this to happen. The Bengals' offense can help their defense by limiting possessions and letting them get long rests before they have to cover the Chiefs' weapons.

The Bengals Offense vs the Crowd

The Bengals' offense struggled with the crowd noise in Tennessee. They seem to acknowledge this as well because they have been trying to practice through extremely loud conditions this week. The Bengals cannot afford to burn timeouts, take delay of game penalties, and false start against the Chiefs. They could get away with that against the Titans because they did not need to be perfect, but against the Chiefs that could be curtains. With all the preparation going into this week for the crowd noise, I would expect the Bengals to be more prepared, but it’s still a concern after what happened last week.

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Which Defensive Coordinator Breaks First

The fight between two mighty North-Eastern Italian defensive coordinators is one to watch for as well, but not about who will get more stops. I think one of the keys of this game is going to be which of these defensive coordinators can be blander and stick to two high coverages with no blitzes the longest. Both of the quarterbacks in this game shred single-high coverage and they beat the blitz regularly. There is not a defensive coordinator at any level who is okay with allowing an offense to slowly matriculate down the field, but it’s something that both of these guys have to be okay with. If either breaks and sends a blitz or tries to roll down a safety, it could be a disaster for their defense.

Chiefs Tampa 2 vs Cincy's Dagger

This one will be a schematic matchup, but can the Chiefs' primary coverage (Tampa 2) beat one of the Bengals' best plays against that coverage (dagger). The Chiefs like to get to their Tampa 2 coverage by dropping Tyrann Mathieu down into the middle runner position. This works a bit like a robber coverage and putting your best defensive back in that spot is smart. Dagger is a clear out from the slot or most inside receiver to a side with a 15 yard in route, or dig, behind it from the outside receiver. In theory, the clear out should take the middle runner out of the picture and it will open up a spot to throw the dig, but we will need to see if Mathieu cheats it and plays the dig instead. This is one of many schematic matchups to look for. Can the Bengals get to this dig route against the Chiefs Tampa 2 or will the Chiefs take it away and force Burrow to throw one of the check downs? It could be a nice day for the Bengals' offense if Tee Higgins catches about five of these.

Trey Hendrickson vs Orlando Brown

Orlando Brown hurt himself in warm-ups, so Hendrickson went against guard Joe Thuney, who moved to tackle, in the first matchup. I think stylistically, Hendrickson has the edge on Brown. He is more of a speedy technician while Brown is a slower, larger tackle.

If Hendrickson can rack up a few pressures and finish them into sacks or even strip sacks, the Bengals could be in great shape when it comes to playing defense. If Brown can get the upper hand and keep Hendrickson at bay, Mahomes could tear the secondary apart. Out of all the one-on-one matchups in this game, this one is possibly the biggest one.

Chris Jones vs the Interior of the Bengals' Offensive Line

This isn't really a one-on-one matchup. Chris Jones will most likely see quite a few double teams from the center and guard in this game. I would expect that they slide to Jones, despite whatever front they are getting so that he's not on an island with Hakeem Adeniji or Quinton Spain.

Jones is a fantastic pass rusher who really wrecked the Bengals’ offensive line in the last game between these teams. Part of this matchup is also whether Joe Burrow can avoid sacks and turn them into big plays like he did in Week 17. Jones will win a few individual plays even if the Bengals win this matchup, so can Burrow turn those potential negatives into positives?

Chidobe Awuzie vs Tyreek Hill

This is another matchup that we saw last time. It’s possible Tyreek Hill had some lingering effects from COVID, but Chidobe Awuzie kept the speedster in check. Whether it was down the field or underneath, Hill had no room to run because Awuzie was right there. Even when Hill caught the ball, Awuzie and the Bengals did a really nice job to stop him and limit his ability to run after the catch. Can Awuzie repeat this performance? If he can, it would be huge for the Bengals to limit one of the scariest weapons the Chiefs have.

The Bengals Wide Receivers Against The Chiefs Secondary

The Bengals' wide receivers (mainly Ja'Marr Chase) had their way with the Chiefs secondary in the first matchup. They ran through contact, drew pass interference penalties, and beat them deep down the field. They will need to do this again for the Bengals' offense to really flourish. I am certain that the Chiefs will be more prepared in this game, but the Bengals' receivers are certainly more talented. If they can repeat their previous performance, there will be fireworks.

For more on this matchup, watch the video below.

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