Broncos Drafting a First-Round RB Could Help Russell Wilson
The Denver Broncos have to figure out how to extract production out of their offense for the 2023 season. This year has been a complete disappointment offensively, and the Broncos' issues in the passing game have been lamented ad nauseam.
It's time to focus on the run game, which the Broncos have not had all season. With the lack of a run game, there are two significant reasons why Denver's has failed to launch this season.
The biggest issue? The quality of the Broncos' offensive line has been poor.
Dalton Risner has been declining as a player, regressing each season since his rookie year. Denver signed Tom Compton not just to compete at right tackle but also to compete at left guard.
Other issues include terrible play from the center spot when Lloyd Cushenberry III was starting, but it has improved slightly with Graham Glasgow taking over.
The Broncos also have problems at tackle, where injuries have seen a rotation all season and no consistency coming from the position. Cameron Fleming has been the best run-blocking tackle, but there has been more bad than good from him this season.
So, GM George Paton has to improve the Broncos' offensive line to help out the run game and pass protection, though the issues there are not all on the offensive line. Russell Wilson has consistently invited pressure all season long.
This play below is just one of many examples of the quarterback doing the line no favors.
The other issue with Denver's run game is the lack of talent in the running back room. Javonte Williams was the best running back Denver had, but he went down with a season-ending injury, which also jeopardizes the start of the 2023 season. What is going to be hard to hear is how the Broncos' run game actually improved after Williams went down.
When Williams was healthy, Denver was 30th in rush EPA with a -0.174 with a rush success rate of 38%, which was 26th in the NFL. After Williams went down, the Broncos climbed to 24th in rush EPA with a -0.112 (tied with two other teams), while the success rate dropped to 37.6%. So the improvement was slight in EPA, while they were not quite as successful.
These stats are prior to the game against the Baltimore Ravens.
That has more to do with the changes head coach Nathaniel Hackett made to the run game than Williams getting hurt, to be clear. Hackett started to change from a heavy outside zone team to more inside zone, and pull-lead runs at about the Week 5 mark. It still points to how ineffective the Broncos' run game is, the running back corps' lack of talent, and that their offensive line remains a significant problem in the run game.
These issues raise the question of whether the Broncos have a shot at the top running back in the 2023 NFL draft class — Texas' Bijan Robinson. Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs is another early option Denver could look at early.
But should Denver consider a first-round running back in 2023?
That depends entirely on Denver's view of Wilson. If the team believes there is enough in the tank for Wilson to be effective with a great supporting cast around him, the team could be willing to draft that running back. However, if Paton views Wilson as practically done, with the knowledge that the Broncos are locked to him for the next two seasons (minimum), then it would make more sense to build up the team by using a cost-controlled selection on premium and expensive positions in the draft.
If Wilson has some gas left in the tank, the Broncos might want to look at following what the Seattle Seahawks did for years with the QB. Seattle relied on the run game, and used Wilson to make plays through the air by opening it up on the ground. If a team has a powerful run game that can wear down a defense, it simplifies reads and makes play-action passes more of a threat.
Williams could be that running back, but there are concerns that he won't be ready until near the mid-point of the 2023 season. Even then, there are valid concerns that he won't be the same running back when returns. The Broncos don't want to get stuck in the same situation they're in currently, picking up the scraps at the running back position and trying to find something that works mid-season.
Robinson and Gibbs would be a significant talent boost to the Broncos' running back room. Each back has a different style, with Robinson being bigger and physical — though he has more than enough speed to make defenses pay — while Gibbs has drawn comparisons to Christian McCaffrey with how he can be used all over on offense.
Either back could complement Williams in different ways. Robinson doubles up on the power, which can wear down a defense even faster, but the Broncos would need someone with speed/quickness to really exploit that. On the flip side, Williams could wear down the defense, allowing Gibbs to come in to finish them off.
The argument against drafting a first-round running back is simple if you don't think Wilson has anything left. You use the pick at a premium position.
With Wilson's contract, the Broncos need cheap talent at the expensive positions to help offset the team's sunk costs into the QB. Having cost control for at least five years on a round-one prospect, the Broncos would be building up the roster — if the pick isn't traded by moving down.
Bottom Line
By the time Denver can get out of Wilson's contract, which could come as early as 2024 with a June 1 cut, and would see the remaining dead money get divided into 2025 or even 2025, the Broncos could pay that premium position they've developed with an extension.
There are rumors of Denver regretting giving that early extension to Wilson, rumors of teammates disliking Wilson, and of Denver already eyeing the 2024 offseason as the pivot point to part ways with the quarterback. If those rumors are true, Denver shouldn't go after a lesser-valued position, like a running back, in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft.
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