Exploring Likelihood of Broncos Getting '23 Compensatory Draft Picks After '22 Free Agency

Do the Broncos stand to rake in any compensatory draft picks after this year's free-agency period?

The Denver Broncos have 18 unrestricted free agents and the majority aren't likely to return. It thus begs the question of whether or not the Broncos may receive compensatory picks for 2023.

The compensatory pick formula allows an NFL team the possibility of receiving additional draft picks in next year's draft, when an unrestricted free agent departs for another destination, depending on what said team does in free agency itself.

Only unrestricted free agents (UFA) whose contracts expired factor into the formula. Players released from their contracts (or street free agents) don't qualify. Neither do restricted free agents or exclusive rights free agents not tendered.

Also, players who signed a contract, then renegotiated to void the final year, don't count toward the formula. However, any first-round pick who has his fifth-year option declined does count toward comp picks.

Knowing all of this, what is the likelihood of certain unrestricted free agents netting the Broncos a comp pick? It all depends on what the Broncos do in free agency themselves, but even if a UFA takes a cheap deal, the player could still count toward a comp pick.

Let's look at Denver's pending unrestricted free agents and what the Broncos might get, assuming they don't re-sign the player in question and don't sign a lot of other UFAs.

I'll group the players by the picks they are likely to land, based on the projected comp picks for the 2022 NFL Draft.

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Fifth to Sixth-Round Pick

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Kyle Fuller, CB; Bobby Massie, RT; Melvin Gordon, RB; Alexander Johnson, ILB; Josey Jewell, ILB; Bryce Callahan, CB

These players are likely looking at deals ranging from $5 to $7 million for 2022. That puts them in the range for at least a sixth-round comp pick, possibly a fifth.

For comparison, in 2021, players such as Tyrod Taylor, Denico Autry, and Marvin Jones got deals that were in the $5M-$7M range. The teams who lost these free agents are projected to get fifth-round comp picks in the 2022 draft.

Sixth to Seventh-Round Pick

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Kareem Jackson, S; Kenny Young, ILB

Jackson and Young are likely going to have to take a deal that's no more than $4M. That means a sixth-round pick is the highest the Broncos can expect to get for them.

Any player that signs a deal for $4M, or $3M, or even $2M could still get on the board for a comp pick. While these players won't get a big-money deal, that doesn't mean they won't make the board at all.

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Not Eligible for Comp Pick

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Teddy Bridgewater, QB

The talk is that Bridgewater is seeking a deal that gets him $25M APY. While that sounds like a deal that would get the Broncos a high comp pick, they voided the last year of his deal, so he isn't eligible for the comp pick formula.

Voiding the final year of a contract signed is no different from cutting the player outright. Thus, it wouldn't have mattered what the Broncos did — the only way to get Bridgewater to count to the formula was to keep him through 2022, when his original contract signed with the Panthers was to end.

Not Likely to Get a Comp Pick

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Shamar Stephen, ID; Cameron Fleming, OT; Stephen Weatherly, EDGE; Nate Hairston, CB; Brett Jones, C; Micah Kiser, ILB; Eric Saubert, TE; Mike Ford, CB

These players are depth at best and aren't likely to get a contract that lands the Broncos a compensatory pick. Therefore, Broncos fans shouldn't concern themselves with anybody here when it comes to the comp pick formula.

Bottom Line

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Bear in mind that, for every unrestricted free agent the Broncos sign, they lose out on a com pick they might receive for an unrestricted free agent they lose. Also, if the Broncos bring any of their UFAs back, they obviously won't count toward the formula. Finally, the most comp picks any team may receive is four.

I would expect the Broncos to get at least a couple of comp picks in 2023, provided they aren't active in signing UFAs. If the Broncos don't trade multiple high draft picks for a veteran QB, they may be better served by not actively signing UFAs to get more comp picks.

If the Broncos get any comp picks, they would most likely be on Day 3 in the fifth through seventh rounds. Still, that extra draft capital can be useful.

We'll know more about what the Broncos might get for comp picks once the "legal tampering" period for free agency begins March 14.

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