Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
Analytics Suggest Flacco was Broncos' Offensive Problem, not Scangarello's Play-Design
Following the Denver Broncos' 15-13 collapse to the Indianapolis Colts last week, quarterback Joe Flacco made news by publicly questioning his team's play-calling and the decision-making of the coaches.
Less than 24 hours later, Flacco had been announced as out for Week 9 with a herniated disc in his neck. The injury will cost him at least 4-6 weeks and probably the balance of the season.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are still dealing with the fallout of Flacco's public shade. Specifically, offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello had to face multiple questions on the topic during his Thursday presser.
“You’d have to ask what Joe meant behind that comment, but when I see Joe’s comments, I just saw a quarterback that had lost a game and he was very frustrated with how it went," Scangarello said. "We’ve lost a couple of heart breakers. He’s a competitor and that stuff bothers him, whatever it might be, and I think in that moment something he said came out, but it’s nothing more than that."
GM John Elway chalked Flacco's words up to the "frustrations" of losing a heart-breaker as well. But Flacco's words, coming from the usually obedient and upstanding veteran, have echoed throughout the week.
Flacco lamented a lack of aggression — both in mindset and in play-design — vs. the Colts and even painted with broad enough strokes to suggest the issues have been ongoing, predating Week 8. The way Scangarello sees it, however, is the opposite. The coordinator believes he's been aggressive in his play-calls.
“I think the offense needs to do what it needs to do every week to win," Scangarello said on Thursday. "As far as the aggression and all that and what was said, you’d have to ask—that’s not for us to comment. I thought we were aggressive in the game, took some shots and it just didn’t go our way.”
Is it possible that Scangarello has been aggressive in his calls but that the triggerman's impotence has resulted in what has been a quite pedantic and risk-averse offense? Advanced analytics tend to back up the premise.
Flacco is ranked 33rd in the NFL in aggressiveness percentage, per Next Gen Stats. What does aggressiveness % measure and what is factored into the formula?
"Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts." — Next Gen Stats
On just 12.6% of his throws did Flacco show the aggressiveness to fit the ball into tight windows. That's not the only advanced passing metric wherein Flacco's impotence is laid bare. Remember, we have half a season's worth of data to measure — quite the body of work.
When it comes to Air Yards to the Sticks, Flacco ranks 33rd again. There are only 32 starting QBs in the NFL for crying out loud.
Per Next Gen Stats' explanation of the AYTS metric, it indicates whether the passer is attempting passes past the first-down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to pick up the yards after catch. In Flacco's case, he was clearly throwing short of the sticks most of the time, hoping his receivers could make a guy miss and move the chains.
Flacco criticized Scangarello and the coordinator shouldn't be absolved for some of his situational play-calls, but from an overall standpoint, it's pretty easy to see that the QB was the primary culprit behind this offense's lack of yards and points.
Flacco wasn't pushing the envelope or challenging defenses vertically. On the coaching end, the hope is that Scangarello learns from the situations in which he's gotten too cute and where his decisions have come up short. He is a first-time play-caller in the NFL after all.
“You always have regrets with play calls and you always can do things differently, whether it’s technique, better call, whatever it is," Scangarello said. "You’ve got to live with those consequences. You don’t get any get backs.”
That's why I'm really excited to see a different QB under center this week vs. the Cleveland Browns. Brandon Allen will get the first start of his career and with such a golden opportunity, he's going to want to make hay while the sun is shining.
I'm guessing the Broncos offense will show more signs of life and look more aggressive, even with an inexperienced backup taking the snaps and operating the unit. Flacco was literally the least-aggressive starting QB in the NFL through the first half of the 2019 season, so for Allen, there's only one way to go — up.
“In the end, [I’ve] been through this a little bit in the last couple of years and I’m excited for Brandon," Scangarello said. "He is smart, he is on it and I can’t wait to see what he does. I think he’s going to do a great job.”
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
