Broncos Linked to 'the Perfect Fit' QB in 2024 Draft by PFF
The Denver Broncos are set to forge onto a new path at the quarterback position in 2023. Under head coach Sean Payton, the Broncos appear to have decided they will move in a new direction and are poised to part ways with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson.
Which side is most most fault for the catastrophic outcome of the Wilson trade will be much debated in the months and years to come, but the end result is the same: Denver is once again on the hunt for a franchise quarterback.
Given Payton’s demands on the quarterback mentally, with ad nauseam discussion surrounding the difficulty and volume of a 'Payton Playbook,' it might be surprising for the Broncos to draft and start a rookie quarterback out of the gate next season. On the surface, it seems more likely for likely incumbent Jarrett Stidham to start Week 1 of 2024, or perhaps a veteran such as Jameis Winton, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, or any other number of stop-gap options Payton believes he can squeeze value out of while Denver searches for long-term stability at quarterback.
However, due to the cap ramifications of moving on from Wilson, the Broncos are likely to aggressively explore avenues of acquiring a quarterback via the draft over the offseason. Even if that quarterback doesn’t start out of the gates next season, grooming an early quarterback selection into a quality starter by the end of his rookie contract is likely the path of least resistance to Denver climbing out of the doldrums of ineptitude and back to competing annually for championships.
Which quarterback could and should the Broncos target in the 2024 NFL draft if the opportunity presents itself? With USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels all likely to be drafted earlier than the Broncos can trade up, there are a number of other quarterbacks that could interest Payton.
According to Pro Football Focus' Trevor Sikkema, the Broncos should consider the quarterback with the most starts in college football history: Oregon’s Bo Nix.
With Russell Wilson now on the bench and on his way out of Denver, the Broncos need a new quarterback. The problem is, I can’t in all good conscience put Caleb Williams or Drake Maye here knowing how much it would take to move up that high in the draft. If they stay in the middle of the first round, where they are projected to pick, Nix would be an ideal option. Nix has legit NFL arm strength in both distance and velocity, as well as added mobility with his legs. He’s also the most experienced college quarterback of all time with 60 games as a starter. He and Sean Payton could work well together.
Nix is a very difficult evaluation. While leading a high-flying offense for the Oregon Ducks this season, the type of throws he was asked to make on a down-to-down basis in Eugene might not translate to Sundays.
Working a lot of simple-read pass plays, Nix was not often asked to go through difficult progressions and throw with anticipation. Thanks in part to a strong talent advantage in most games on top of the scheme Oregon runs, he was able to make obvious and simple reads with the football to target very open players.
Nix has a solid frame and a combination of athleticism that allows him to pick up yardage when the defense gives him space and can help an offense turn nothing into something. He uses his athleticism to buy time as a passer but has no problem tucking and running to keep the offense on schedule and ahead of the sticks.
The biggest question with Nix will be his ability to handle pressure. At Oregon, sometimes pressure resulted in a sped-up process and decay in his accuracy, resulting in poorly thrown passes.
Sometimes Nix can feel pressure when it’s not there, leading to issues with his mechanics as well. He does not always play well within the pocket and struggles to maneuver in the pocket to win within structure.
This part of the evaluation is further clouded due to how little pressure Nix saw at Oregon. He was good against pressure, according to PFF, with a 66.7% completion percentage and eight touchdowns to one interception, but he was the singularly least pressured among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this past season and was only pressured on 15.7% of his dropbacks.
This is Payton’s team, and we're all just observers of his plan for the Broncos. If Payton brings in a quarterback that he believes can execute and elevate the scheme, with the intangibles required of an NFL quarterback, and is within range of where the Broncos are drafting, the team should absolutely take a swing.
Will Nix be the best option for Denver? Can Payton get his guy via a trade-up?
Will Denver even draft a quarterback early this year?
Don't forget about Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or Washington’s Michael Penix. A lot to be determined as the Broncos retake their seat on the quarterback carousel.
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