Examining Whether Broncos Got Value in 2022 NFL Draft Class
In this story:
The 2022 NFL Draft is in the rearview and the Denver Broncos will take a short break before commencing work on the 2023 class. It's essentially a year-long process to go from 1,000 or so prospects and work it down to a board of 80-120 players on average for the individual team rankings.
Before that process begins for us at Mile High Huddle, we have to finish giving our thoughts on the Broncos' 2022 draft class. That includes the value of the class compared to not only my big board but the consensus big board that Arif Hasan does for The Athletic.
The Athletic's consensus big board for 2022 compiled the rankings of 82 different draft analysts to produce a top-300 board, of which 42 players drafted were not ranked. As a result, the value of those 42 players was 301.
As for my big board, there were 405 prospects graded. 23 prospects drafted were not on my board and carry a value of 406. If I cut it off at 300 players, 40 prospects outside my top-300 were drafted.
The way of determining draft value is quite simple. Where was the prospect selected(what round/pick) compared to where he was ranked going into the draft? Reaches have a negative value, while 'steals' have a positive value.
There were some differences between my board and the consensus regarding where teams ranked due to the valuation of certain prospects. Still, only two teams had a difference of 10 or higher, and only five had a difference of six or greater.
Unfortunately, neither my board nor the consensus board has great value for the Broncos' 2022 draft class.
Consensus Big Board
When looking at the consensus big board, only two of the Broncos' picks had a positive value. Oklahoma edge rusher Nik Bonitto, who was ranked 58th and went No. 64, and UCLA tight end Greg Dulcich ranked 73rd and went No. 80 overall. Every other player Denver drafted had a negative value, meaning the consensus big board says Paton reached on those picks.
Fourth-round cornerback Damarri Mathis was the smallest reach, as he went 30 picks higher than he was ranked. Fifth-round wideout/returner Montrell Washington was the biggest reach, as he wasn't ranked on the board. Neither was seventh-round corner Faion Hicks, who went 70 picks after Washington.
Every team reached at least once outside of the Carolina Panthers, while the New Orleans Saints reached for every player.
So, where does the Broncos' valuation come in? As the 31st worst-valued class based on the consensus big board.
The only class ranked worse was that of the New York Giants, who had value selections of Evan Neal, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Darrian Beavers. The Giants had four reaches of over 100 picks and six over 50. New York's total value was -669, while Denver's was -500.
Denver's value was not far behind that of the New England Patriots, who had a negative value of 442.
What is concerning is that the Kansas City Chiefs ranked No. 3, the Las Vegas Raiders ranked No. 5, and Los Angeles Chargers ranked No. 11. Both the Chiefs and Raiders had a positive value, while the Chargers were a -89.
| Player | Pick | Consensus Board | Trickel's Board |
|---|---|---|---|
Nik Bonitto | 64 | 58 | 114 |
Greg Dulcich | 80 | 73 | 143 |
Damarri Mathis | 115 | 145 | 69 |
Eyioma Uwazurike | 116 | 171 | 82 |
Delarrin Turner-Yell | 152 | 232 | 240 |
Montrell Washington | 162 | 301 | 406 |
Luke Wattenberg | 171 | 254 | 337 |
Matt Henningsen | 206 | 263 | 263 |
Faion Hicks | 232 | 301 | 406 |
Trickel's Big Board
One of the differences between my board to the consensus is that Mathis and fourth-round defensive lineman Eyioma Uwazurike were the only two positive values. Before getting into that, though, remember that I had 405 players on my board compared to 300 on the consensus. So, any reach for a player not only my board will be harsher to the value.
Matt Henningsen was the 263rd ranked prospect both on my board and the consensus, but the consensus viewed Luke Wattenberg far more favorably as its 254th overall player while falling to 337th on mine. Both boards didn't have Washington or Hicks ranked.
Despite those differences, on my board, Denver ended up ranking 31st in value compared. Unlike the consensus, every team reached for a player and got a 'steal' of a player.
The Patriots were the worst valued, while the Giants were a little better, with my values coming in at 28th. The Chicago Bears came in 30th on my board (29th on the consensus), and the Jacksonville Jaguars 29th on mine (compared to 24th on consensus).
The other three AFC West teams still make this class concerning, for the most part. The Chiefs were the only team higher as they were the most valued class. The Raiders fell to No. 8 and Chargers to 17.
What Does This Mean?
There is no denying that this Broncos draft class was questionable, but what matters most is what these players do from here. Just because they were not viewed highly as an NFL prospect coming out of college doesn't make them a bad professional, though it doesn't make them a hit either. The simple fact is that there are so many variables moving forward in these players' respective careers that these valuations can't predict success precisely.
NFL analysts, general managers, coaches, and scouts have been wrong on players and will continue to be wrong. I have been wrong on prospects before and will be going forward.
There are about 1,000 to 1,500 prospects in the draft every year. It's about the pursuit of perfection, knowing that attaining it is near-impossible. No one will be perfect in predicting the outcomes for every player drafted.
These valuations are a tool to show why a draft class may be viewed highly or lowly. It's all based on how we view the players as prospects and what we think may or may not translate to the NFL. No one can predict the variables the league will present. If someone could, they'd probably be a billionaire.
There are also a few missing factors in these valuations. First, it is based on the picks that were actually made. Remember, Denver traded picks for a franchise quarterback. That was more than worth the use of those picks, especially seeing how quarterbacks fell in this draft.
The values don't factor in positional value, medical unknowns, or character unknowns. For example, Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean was high on both boards, but he fell due to a plethora of medical concerns teams had that came out during the draft. That is one example out of many from this draft alone.
Denver also traded away pick 96 and got a 2023 third-round pick. That was a great acquisition because up until then, only one 2023 pick had been traded during the draft. In addition, it gives the Broncos another piece of ammo for next year, where they now have five picks and will look to add more between now and the draft.
The Broncos got good early returns out of Paton's first draft class. He found multiple early contributors that are on the right track.
Time will tell how Paton's maiden class pans out, just as it will with this year's. However, one thing Broncos Country needs to have is trust, not just in Paton, but also in the coaching staff and the process.
Bring on the 2023 NFL draft.
Follow Erick on Twitter @ErickTrickel.
Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.
Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
