Broncos at Patriots Week 5 Odds: Denver Opens as Underdogs | What it Means
This has been by far the most unpredictable NFL season ever. The NFL betting odds have shown that to be true.
There's even some talk that a team like the Tennessee Titans might have to forfeit games because they cannot seem to keep their players healthy (uninfected) long enough to play a game. The Denver Broncos vs. New England matchup this Sunday might be running into a similar situation with multiple Patriots players potentially missing from the coming game, including QB Cam Newton and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, which moves the betting line dramatically.
A great example of this is the fact that there are some betting sites that have the spread at -10.5 in favor of the Patriots. This line is with the idea Cam Newton will be playing in the upcoming game. On SportsBetting.com though they are going by the assumption that Cam Newton will not be in the upcoming matchup leading to the spread being an awfully close matchup with the Patriots being at -3.5. the Patriots should also be without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore making things just a bit easier for the Broncos.
The Broncos are also running into some uncertainty at the quarterback position. This week Drew Lock has begun throwing again, but he has been a limited participant in practice. My guess is that even though last Friday Vic Fangio said Lock's odds of starting at New England were "50/50", I would lean towards Denver waiting another week to make sure his shoulder is fully healed up.
The same looks to be true of cornerback A.J. Bouye who is likely to need another week before he can return from his shoulder injury. On a good note for the game against the Patriots, the Broncos are getting running back Phillip Lindsay back in the lineup. He should add a nice spark to an offense that has struggled to find big plays.
How are the odds shaping up for Broncos-Patriots? Here's what you need to know according to SportsBetting.com.
ATS Betting Lines: Patriots -3.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Moneyline: Broncos +165/-189
Breaking it Down
ATS: I can't imagine trying to figure out some of the different betting lines for games in the NFL. With so many players injured/sick, it seems to change by the hour. As I pointed to earlier, there are some sites I've seen with the spread even as high as -11 in favor of the Patriots.
On those sites, 90% of the betting is going towards the Broncos after watching the Patriots' quarterbacks struggle against Kansas City this past Monday. The Patriots must be banking on Cam Newton being cleared before Sunday.
A more reasonable line thought is that of the -3.5 towards the Patriots. New England continues to show that even without a great offense, its defense will keep it in most games.
The Patriots' defense has picked up right where they left off last season in carrying this team. If it is a battle of the backup quarterbacks in this matchup, I would expect a low-scoring, close game with both defenses dominating and turnovers deciding the eventual winner.
A quick stat to keep in mind when placing a bet on the spread is the fact that New England is only 2-4 over their past six games against the spread. The Broncos, on the other hand, are 9-4 over the past 13 games.
Over/Under: If I were betting on the over/under for this game, I'd be waiting until the last possible moment to have as much information as I possibly could in terms of who will be available. The presence of Lock and Newton potentially would completely change the outlook of how these offenses will perform.
Brett Rypien and the Broncos' offense were able to put up a lot of points in last week against the Jets but the Patriots are a whole different animal. The Jets are a team with no real strengths on their defense where the Patriots do not have any real weaknesses.
Newton also presents one of the tougher matchups for any defense in having to worry about both the run and pass from the quarterback position. I expect that even if Newton and Lock play, both teams will lean heavily on the run game and try to keep the game close until the very end.
Moneyline: If you are betting on the Broncos, then, it might be worth placing your bet on the spread to give you a bit more leeway to walk away with the victory. If betting on the Patriots, then it might make more sense to bet the moneyline to mitigate some of the risk out of the bet and still walk away with similar money in the end.
Bottom Line
This is a tough week to want to bet on the Broncos. When making sports bets, I like to have as many unknowns answered before I decide whether or not to put down money on the situation.
I would highly recommend waiting until at least Friday before placing your bets as we should know by then whether Newton and/or Lock can play on Sunday. Both teams are a bit banged up with injuries as well, so it is worth waiting to see what their availability will be and make you feel just a bit more comfortable with wherever you decide to bet your money.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
