Broncos at Raiders Week 10 Odds: Denver Opens as Road Underdogs | What it Means
If the Denver Broncos have any chance of making the playoffs, these next two weeks will be the deciding factor. The Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins currently rank ahead of the Broncos in the standings.
This season could come down to tiebreaker scenarios and having the head-to-head victory (first tiebreaker the NFL uses) could mean the world. The Broncos have not been given great odds to overtake the Raiders this week as they find themselves as 5-point underdogs on the road.
The Raiders boast a 5-3 record at midseason. The reality is, the Raiders are almost the exact opposite of the Broncos up to this point, boasting the 12th-best offense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA and the 30th-ranked defense.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 29th-ranked offense and the ninth-ranked defense. Week 10 will be one of those rare games where we get to see strength against strength and weakness against weakness.
Thankfully, the Broncos have two of their best defensive players trending towards playing this week in cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan. It all adds up to this game being a bit of a toss-up between two division rivals.
Let's get to the betting odds for the upcoming game, according to SportsBetting.com.
ATS: Raiders -5
Over/Under: 48.5
Moneyline: Broncos +196/Raiders -227
Breaking it Down
ATS: When it comes to the spread, the Raiders have dominated the Broncos as of late, going 5-0 against the spread in the past five games. Las Vegas' overall record over that span is just 3-2, but both losses came as underdogs where the Raiders kept the game close down to the wire, similarly to the 2019 season finale vs. the Broncos which featured a final score of 16-15. Throw in the fact that the Raiders themselves are 7-3 against the spread over the past 10-games, and bettors can see the probabilities.
For those looking to bet on the Broncos, the one saving grace if is that the Raiders have done much better on the road than at home. They're only 1-5 in the past six home games against the spread. In terms of actual win/loss record, the Raiders are 1-4 in their last five home games dating back to last season.
On the flip side of that, the Broncos have done better on the road this season going 2-2 and the two losses were by a touchdown or less. If you're leaning towards betting Denver, I would wait until later in the week as some sportsbooks are seeing the spread grow in favor of the Raiders. If you're leaning towards the Raiders, you might want to consider locking in that bet in right now.
Over/Under: Divisional games are always tough to figure out when it comes to the over/under bet. These teams know each other well and that has led to lower-scoring games in the recent past. In the last five games between the Broncos and Raiders, the total has hit the under.
On the other hand, both defenses have been giving up points at a high level this year and both offenses have shown they can put up points in a hurry when the chips are down. The Broncos now have two straight weeks of putting up 21 points in the fourth quarter.
The Raiders have hit the over in seven of the eight games they have played. It wouldn't surprise me to see this game turn into an offensive showcase. The Broncos are banged up on the defensive line, leaving them vulnerable to a strong push in the run game for the Raiders.
Conversely, the Broncos have some offensive weapons that will be nightmares for a struggling Raiders' secondary. This needs to be a get-right game for Drew Lock as the opportunities will be available.
Moneyline: The sports-betting world really does not believe the Broncos stand a chance to win this game straight up. Denver is at +196 on the moneyline, meaning, if you bet $100 on the Broncos, you would end up with $196 in winnings alone.
These two teams have split their head-to-head matchups in each of the last five seasons. They know each other well and seem to find themselves in games that go down to the wire.
Bottom Line
The Broncos are in a very desperate situation where they need a win or could see their playoffs chances drop close to zero. On the flip side, the Raiders find themselves looking like one of the hotter teams in football, winning three of their last four games with two of those victories coming against teams above .500.
In the end, I expect this to be a one-score game. The Broncos cannot fall behind early and expect to win this game as that plays right into the hands of the Raiders' strong run game.
Betting-wise, if you're leaning Broncos, it all depends on how big of a risk one wants to take. It might be worth waiting until later in the week to see where the spread ends up before deciding whether the risk is worth taking.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
