Broncos vs. Commanders: Analyzing What Our Predictions Got Wrong

The Denver Broncos needed a win, but they came up short, losing to the Washington Commanders, 35-33. It was a tale of two halves, where the Broncos were explosive and moved the ball on offense, putting up 21 first-half points, while the defense had limited the Commanders to just three points halfway through the second quarter.

It's a shame the Broncos don't know how to win, even with Sean Payton at the helm. This wasn't going to be a one-year turnaround, but fans still want to see more from this team on both sides of the ball.

The Broncos' offense has scored 15 points in the second half this season. Denver can't do that and expect to win, especially when it's 0-2 by three points combined.

On the defense, the Broncos must figure out how to get consistent pressure without being overaggressive with their blitzes. That is defensive coordinator Vance Joseph's biggest issue, and it came back to hurt the unit in the second half. On top of that, Denver lost containment in the run game, but more on that later.

Leading up to the game, I highlighted the two most significant threats the Broncos faced and made five bold predictions. My predictions came close to being realized, and while the Broncos mostly limited Washington's biggest threats, it wasn't enough.

It's worth looking back at the loss because those players, or bold predictions and failing to achieve them, could help explain the loss.

Biggest Threats

Jonathan Allen | DL

Analyzing the biggest defensive threat, Allen stood out as Chase Young was still uncertain to play with a neck injury. If it was clear that Young would play at the time, he would've been the guy, and he showed why on Sunday, picking up 1.5 sacks, multiple tackles for a loss, and adding two more quarterback hits.

It was a quiet game for Allen as Denver held its own. He did cause enough disruption a few times for a teammate to make the play, but it was a quiet day statistically for him. Allen had three tackles, zero stops, hits, or sacks.

Commanders WR Trio

The Commanders spread the ball around and strained the defense. Six different pass-catchers had at least three catches, and only one had more than three catches.

Terry McLaurin was the lone receiver to catch more than three passes, with five on the day, including a touchdown. He went for 54 yards on those catches.

Curtis Samuel had three catches for 19 yards, and Jahan Dotson added three for 22 yards. Overall, the Broncos did alright, slowing down the receiving trio with 11 total catches for 95 yards and a touchdown.

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Prediction 1: Mims' 40-Plus Yard TD & a Kick Return TD

This prediction came close, and before I changed my original prediction, it was that Marvin Mims Jr. would have four plays of 40-plus yards between offense and special teams. That didn't feel bold enough, so I changed it to touchdowns, adding a kickoff return with how rare those are in Denver.

Mims had his 40-plus-yard touchdown reception early in the game. He added another catch of over 40 yards and a punt return over 40 yards. So, Mims got close to the original prediction. The problem was Denver didn't try to get more out of him on offense. He had 113 receiving yards on just two receptions (and two targets).

Mims wasn't targeted or utilized on offense in the second half, as the Broncos couldn't get anything done. He had his two 40-plus-yard catches with a touchdown, and that was it.

The Broncos have a lot of weapons on offense, but Russell Wilson and Sean Payton can't stop going to the guy who is showing his explosive ability each time he touches the ball.

Prediction 2: Williams Scores Game-Winner

This one didn't happen or even come close to it. While it came down to the game's final play, it didn't come close to how it was predicted—nothing more to say about this one.

Prediction 3: Jewell Picks Off Sam Howell

While the prediction had this happening in the fourth quarter to set up the aforementioned game-winning drive, the basis of it came close to happening early in the game.

Josey Jewell baited Howell to throw over the linebackers and dropped to break it up. Jewell came up short of the interception but made a great play. It was probably a top-three play by the Broncos' defense in the game, though that doesn't mean much in a loss.

Prediction 4: Commanders Held Under 50 Rush Yards

The Broncos were on track to end the first half, allowing 28 yards rushing heading into the second half. Denver's defense, as a whole, was playing pretty good football all around early in the game, swarming plays and getting after the quarterback. Again, though, this game was a tale of two halves.

In the final two quarters, the Commanders picked up 94 rushing yards to bring their total to 122 on the day. Denver also allowed two rushing touchdowns. This was typical of a Joseph run defense.

Is it too early to talk about Josep's seat getting hot? We're not too far out.

Prediction 5: Fake Punt Gets Called

Nope. The Broncos dialed up no fake punt despite there being three opportunities for it. Of course, a fake punt would've only made some sense on two of those chances, but the Broncos weren't in the best field position on either to make going for it the right call.

It was a close week for the bold predictions, but it still resulted in a loss and a 0-2 start for the Broncos. Better luck next week on the road against a Miami offense that brings speed for days.

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