Examining Fallout of Broncos Drafting Patrick Surtain II Over Justin Fields
Over the past couple of weeks at Mile High Huddle, we have taken a brief yet detailed look at the tenure of Denver Broncos general manager George Paton and the moves that he has made over his three seasons as the lead man in charge.
Some of them could potentially have Paton on the hot seat and on the way out following the 2023 season, while others show that his ability as a talent evaluator could keep him around for the long haul.
One of those decisions, and arguably the most debatable he’s made, was drafting Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II over Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields with the ninth overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft. After two seasons, there is an easy argument that Paton made the correct decision in taking Surtain.
Surtain is already a decorated defender at this point, with several outlets calling him the best cornerback in the league after his first two seasons. He has already been named as an All-Pro by the Associated Press, as well as being named to the NFL All-Rookie team two years ago.
On the flip side, Fields has struggled to find solid footing as a passer behind a terrible offensive line and lacks top-end talent at the skill positions surrounding him. It’s been a tough road for the former Ohio State product, but there is optimism around league circles that he could become an elite player at the position should he develop the subtle nuances of playing the quarterback position, especially when considering his ability to move the football with his legs as a runner.
What is uncommonly discussed around Broncos Country is the fallout of that decision and how the franchise has been shaped since then.
Let’s break it all down, starting at the beginning.
Leading to the 2021 NFL Draft
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Paton was hired after John Elway relinquished his position as the general manager, remaining on for a time as president of football operations, which happened following the 2020 season. Paton was tasked with overseeing an organization that hadn’t seen a winning season since 2016.
At the time, then-head coach Vic Fangio was on the hot seat heading into his third season on the job, and despite being one of the reasons that Paton took the job, Fangio needed to find a glaring answer to the quarterback position to help turn his team around and potentially save his job.
Drew Lock, who was forced upon Fangio by Elway in the 2019 draft, wasn’t showing the progression that was needed for the Broncos to be comfortable with their quarterback situation moving forward. Denver was widely speculated as one of the hottest destinations for a quarterback in what was considered one of the best draft classes at the position for several years prior.
Throughout the pre-draft process, it was reported that then-Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was enamored with Fields as a prospect and that he believed that he could draw up a scheme based on the elite athleticism and mobility that Fields possessed, despite being a raw thrower of the football.
Rather than risking his chances on a rookie at the time, Fangio opted for finding a veteran option to compete with Lock, to which Paton would oblige. A couple of days prior to the draft, Paton would acquire Teddy Bridgewater via trade as veteran competition to Lock.
On draft night and despite rumors that the Green Bay Packers and the Broncos had a deal in place to move quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the Mile High City, Paton chose to stick to his original draft board and select Surtain instead of Fields. Even though finding a quarterback of the future could have helped ease the situation for Fangio and Shurmur, Paton took a prospect that he had as a top-5 player on his board in Surtain, opting to use Bridgewater and Lock as the path to success for the 2021 season.
That decision helped pave the way to where this franchise currently stands.
The Immediate Aftermath
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With the selection of Surtain came the impending competition between Lock and Bridgewater to determine the starting quarterback of the 2021 season, and it was immediately clear that Bridgewater was the favorite of the coaching staff. At the time, there was still speculation that Rodgers could be on the table as a potential trade target for the Broncos, showing a couple of cards in Paton's hand forward.
Over the course of the summer prior to the 2021 season, the Broncos were heavily connected to Rodgers up to and until a week before training camp opened. Rodgers had decided to return to Green Bay and accepted a new deal to make him the highest-paid player in NFL history, though he's now a New York Jet.
Behind the scenes, there was a growing suspicion that Paton had his sights set on a premier franchise quarterback moving forward, whether that be Rodgers or Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Going into 2021, there were rumors coming out of the Wilson camp that he was seeking a trade out of Seattle, with the New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, and the Jets as potential destinations.
With Rodgers and Wilson potentially on the move going into the 2022 offseason and a lack of a true franchise quarterback on the roster, Paton had effectively painted himself into a corner, and the rest of the league knew it.
In 2021, Fangio and Shurmur had failed to effectively navigate the waters of the Bridgewater/Lock competition, and rather than tie their wagon to the one horse with the potential to grow into a future franchise quarterback, they opted for the safe option in Bridgewater. That decision ended up being the final nail in the coffin, as Denver would lose four out of seven games to close the season and end its hopes of a potential playoff berth after Bridgewater suffered his second concussion of the season during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Lock struggled to finish the season and had shown little growth as a reliable option moving forward, and the Broncos were once again dead in the water at the quarterback position.
Hiring Nathaniel Hackett & the Wilson Trade
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After Fangio's third consecutive losing season for the franchise in 2021, Paton fired the head coach and dove into his first coaching search as a general manager. With an extensive list featuring a handful of first-time head coaching candidates, Paton opted to hire Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett over Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as his lead man in charge.
Wide-spread speculation and dot-connecting led the masses to believe that Paton still had his sights set on Rodgers as his quarterback going forward, as Hackett and Rodgers had a reported connection throughout their time with the Packers. Rodgers and the Packers had another postseason failure following a third consecutive 13-3 campaign, and Rodgers was again hinting at leaving Green Bay.
A few days prior to the opening of the new league year in March of 2022, Rodgers scorned Paton and the Broncos, opting to return for one more season in Green Bay. At this point, Paton pivoted and sent a massive trade package to Seattle for Wilson and the Seahawks' fourth-round selection in 2022.
The Broncos sent first and second-round selections in 2022 and 2023, a fifth-round selection in 2022, Lock, tight end Noah Fant, and defensive lineman Shelby Harris to Seattle in exchange for Wilson. Paton had finally landed his franchise quarterback, and he had his ideal head coach to pair with him. The Broncos were back in the discussion as contenders, with a massive hype train going into the 2022 season.
What would ensue was arguably the most epic disaster in franchise history. The Broncos would finish the season 5-12 behind one of the worst coaching displays in league history from Hackett and the worst statistical season of Wilson’s career.
Hackett would only last 15 total games as the head coach of the Broncos, and despite Wilson signing a massive five-year, $250 million extension prior to the season, there are questions surrounding his long-term future of the franchise.
Making matters worse is the general makeup of the roster as it currently stands.
Overhaul of the Edge Position
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Backtracking to the 2021 season, the Broncos started off hot behind the steadying hand of Bridgewater, opening the season with a 3-0 record before losing four straight contests. After beating Washington to even their record at 4-4 heading into the trade deadline, Paton opted to trade Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams for a second-round and third-round selection in the 2022 draft, gaining much-needed draft capital to help rebuild the roster and potentially trade for a quarterback in the upcoming offseason.
At the time, the Broncos still had Bradley Chubb and had recently drafted Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper to alleviate the loss of a franchise cornerstone. While Browning was originally drafted to be an off-ball linebacker, new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero pressed for him to be used as an edge defender moving forward.
The Broncos also saved right around $15M in salary cap space in moving on from Miller, helping pave the way for a replacement in free agency in 2022. That replacement would eventually turn out to be former Cowboy Randy Gregory.
A supremely talented player that had struggled to stay on the field due to injury and suspensions, Gregory was widely considered a boom-or-bust acquisition for the Broncos. He had never played a full season in the NFL over his seven-year career to that point, so this decision was met with well-deserved skepticism and some criticism.
Shortly after his signing, Gregory would undergo arthroscopic shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum, effectively placing his status for the 2022 season in question. To buffer the decision of signing Gregory, Paton opted to select Oklahoma edge defender Nik Bonitto with the Broncos' second-round selection that he was awarded from the Rams in the Miller trade.
Bonitto, a pass rush specialist that had shown struggles as a run defender in his time as a Sooner, figured to be a key rotational piece in the edge room behind Gregory (if healthy) and Chubb, with Browning as the third guy on the field in the rotation.
As the 2022 season progressed, the Broncos were out of sorts due to poor coaching from Hackett, poor play from Wilson and the offense, and injuries to both Gregory and Browning. Bonitto struggled to see the field as a rookie, and the Broncos' defense suffered while trying to get to the quarterback.
Needing to recoup draft capital from the Wilson trade and fix the mess that had come from it, Paton and the Broncos opted to send Chubb to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a first-round pick in 2023, a fourth-round pick in 2024, and running back Chase Edmonds.
Going into 2023, the Broncos have several questions surrounding the edge room as well. With the ever-present injury concerns surrounding Gregory, Browning recovering from offseason knee surgery, and questions surrounding the growth and development of both Cooper and Bonitto, Denver had to sign veteran Frank Clark as a solidifying force for the room as a whole.
With those concerns addressed, let’s move to where the team stands following the firing of Hackett, the acquisition of Wilson and his subsequent contract extension, and the Chubb trade.
Acquiring Then Hiring Sean Payton as HC
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Following the debacle that was the Hackett hiring, combined with being fleeced by the Seahawks in the Wilson trade, Paton had to go to extreme measures to try to alleviate the situation. Going into his second head-coaching search in as many seasons and also being guided by the Walton-Penner ownership group, Paton chose to court several candidates that had previous NFL experience, as well as a stark contrast to the lackadaisical coaching style of Hackett.
Paton needed an adult in the room, and his search primarily focused on the talents of Payton, University of Michigan's Jim Harbaugh, and the aforementioned Quinn.
After practically being shut out of the interview process by the new ownership group, Paton was purportedly barely involved in constructing a deal with the Saints to acquire Payton's rights in exchange for the first-round selection acquired in the Chubb trade, as well as a second-round pick in 2024. In the deal, the Broncos also acquired a third-round selection from the Saints in 2024.
From there, a shift in the power dynamic at the top of the organization became palpable. So much so that some say Paton has been effectively limited when it comes to contract negotiations, extensions, and potential signings moving forward. Payton has the final say.
Looking to get the most out of the offense as currently constructed and with Wilson coming off of his worst season as a professional, Payton made it clear that the Broncos would place a major emphasis on running the football. With that in mind, Denver added a pair of road-grading offensive linemen in Mike McGlinchey at right tackle and Ben Powers at left guard, as well as signing a blocking tight end in Chris Manhertz.
In the 2023 draft, Payton also had his hands heavily influenced in the selection of wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr., as well as center Alex Forsythe. Those moves were directly made to help improve the roster over the oft-injured KJ Hamler and the oft-struggling Lloyd Cushenberry III, while also leaning into the mindset of what Payton wants to bring to his squad; gritty football players that excel when it’s time to get physical, especially in the running game as blockers.
Throughout this process of exchange of power, one theme has been prevalent…
Out With the Old, In With the New
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How did the draft compensation turn out?
When going back and examining the fallout of the decision to draft Surtain over Fields, it’s hard not to take a look at what the Broncos could look like should the opposite decision have been made. Let’s start with the draft compensation that has exchanged hands over four different franchises over the last three offseasons.
First off, if the Broncos would have taken Fields over Surtain, they likely wouldn’t have traded multiple premium draft selections to acquire Russell Wilson as they waited for Fields to show his hand as a developmental prospect. Even with Bridgewater and Lock as the primary options at quarterback in 2021, Fields would have been the plan at the position moving forward.
The selections sent to the Seahawks in the Wilson trade turned out to be the ninth overall, 40th overall, and 158th overall selections in 2022, as well as the fifth overall and 37th overall selection in 2023.
With those selections, the Seahawks selected left tackle Charles Cross, edge defender Boye Mafe, edge Tyreke Smith, cornerback Devon Witherspoon, and edge defender Derrick Hall, respectively. That’s a heck of a haul for the Seahawks, but what could it have looked like for the Broncos?
Using some informed speculation here as a guideline, this roster could look dramatically different than it currently does.
What Denver Could Have Done With Those Picks
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The Broncos have needed a right tackle of the future for several years, and with Cross available with the ninth overall selection, it would have made a ton of sense for them to select the athletic tackle from Mississippi State. Denver also had just extended left tackle Garett Bolles to a four-year deal during the 2020 season, but there was also a potential out in that contract following the 2022 season.
Cross could have started his first two years at right tackle, then allowed the Broncos to move on from Bolles and reset the blindside of the offensive line. If the Broncos take Cross and decide to keep Bolles around, they likely don’t need to sign McGlinchey to a mega deal as a free agent going into 2023 as well.
When it comes to the Broncos' second-round selection at 40 overall, Mafe would have made a lot of sense after trading away Miller, a move that probably would have been made regardless of Fields being in the fold. Bad teams move on from their top-level players to help recoup draft capital all the time, and the Broncos getting a pair of Day 2 selections was more than worth moving on from the contract and an aging pass rusher who wanted to chase another Lombardi Trophy. With Mafe being the pick at 40th overall, Paton likely goes in a different direction with the 64th overall selection, meaning that Bonitto would have been passed over.
However, if the Broncos chose to go in a different direction than Mafe with that selection, they could have gone in the direction of Cam Jurgens, a center out of Nebraska and a player that the Broncos were widely linked to going into the draft. Denver has been looking to find a replacement for Cushenberry for a couple of years now, including trying to trade up multiple times in the draft to do so.
In fact, Cushenberry wasn’t the top option that the Broncos were after in the 2020 draft. Denver was trying to trade up to select Matt Hennessy out of Boston College, but couldn’t find a suitor to do so before the Atlanta Falcons selected him a few picks prior to the Broncos eventually selecting Cushenberry.
With the Broncos likely still being a bad team in Fields’ second season (and likely with Hackett at head coach), Denver could have turned to Devon Witherspoon with their first-round selection, coming full circle with a top cornerback for the boundary. With the 37th overall selection of the 2023 draft, Derrick Hall would have made a ton of sense for a team that was desperate to add an edge pass rusher.
And if the Broncos stuck to their guns to select Mafe in the 2022 draft rather than taking Jurgens to play the center position, they likely would have selected Joe Tippmann out of Wisconsin with the 37th selection of 2023.
Coaching Fallout
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This is where things can get a little bit out of hand because we don’t know how Paton would have acted if he had taken Fields as the quarterback of the future. With Fangio and Shurmur both on thin ice going into 2021, there is a good possibility that Fields would never have seen the field except for injury purposes or if the team was completely out of the playoff hunt late during the season.
However, giving a coaching staff another shot with a young player at the quarterback position happens nearly every year in the NFL. Fangio had already failed to properly develop Lock into a quality option, making things even more unclear on the proper action plan following the 2021 season.
With that said, we’ll keep the past as it was and replace Fangio with Hackett and continue.
With Hackett being a rookie head coach and Fields needing time to develop, the leash for both would have been much longer in terms of giving them time to learn from their mistakes, especially for Hackett. The second that the Broncos traded for Wilson, the clock started ticking down on Hackett’s tenure as the head coach of the team.
With a quarterback that had been to nine Pro Bowls in 10 total seasons as a professional pulling the strings of the offense, Hackett was dropped into an intense pressure cooker with playoff expectations looming over his head.
If Fields was the quarterback in this scenario, the Broncos wouldn’t have had nearly the expectations, and the growing pains would have been just that. The game management issues for a first-time head coach would have been expected and probably dismissed, as well as the poor performance of the offense and team as a whole.
Hackett would also likely have had more freedom to develop a system around the talents that Fields possessed rather than being forced into an offense authored by Wilson and what he wanted to try to accomplish as a pocket passer to solidify his legacy as one of the league's greatest quarterbacks.
With Hackett being given a longer leash and the team having lowered expectations, the Broncos also probably don’t move on from Chubb to gain more draft capital. It’s hard to say for certain, but moving on from a second franchise cornerstone at the edge position in as many years is poor roster management, no matter how you slice it.
Without making that move and folding in the longer leash for Hackett, it’s likely that the Broncos wouldn’t have traded for Payton and given Hackett one more year to figure things out.
What it All Means
This exercise is not the be-all-end-all of the discussion about the decision to select Surtain over Fields a couple of years ago, but rather a peek into how that one decision has truly altered the landscape of the Broncos franchise as it stands now.
Using the benefit of hindsight and how each of those players has panned out since the fateful 2021 draft makes it very clear that the Broncos made a terrific decision in taking the franchise cornerback over a possible franchise quarterback, at least to this point. Fields still has a long way to develop, but signs are pointing in the right direction for him to do so.
Chicago, where Fields eventually ended up, has one of the worst rosters in football right now and still has a long way to go to build enough talent to allow Fields to grow as a passer. Surtain is an All-Pro after two seasons and widely considered the best player at the position, making Paton look like a quality GM for his ability to identify a premium talent at a premium position.
But if Fields does grow into a top-10 player at the position, the conversation dramatically changes to the opposite end of the spectrum. Paton would have passed on an elite franchise quarterback, a combined six total players selected in the top-50 over three different draft classes (adding 20th overall selection Fant and 41st overall selection Lock from the 2019 draft to the trade haul), and $165M in guaranteed money for a quarterback that had his worst season as a pro.
Again, there are a lot of 'what-if' scenarios in this exercise, as well as some informed speculation tying things together. Nobody knows exactly how things would have played out because it's impossible to prove a counterfactual.
However, just using the actual selections the Seahawks made from the Wilson trade can give you a baseline for a comparison between the two scenarios.
With that being said, the Broncos could be in a much better situation if they would have selected Fields back in 2021 over Surtain, if the same general decision-making timeline were to have played out.
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