3 Critical Stats Reveal Broncos' Blueprint to Beating Jets
The Denver Broncos are fresh off their first win of the 2023 season. It was a come-from-behind victory that saw Denver overcome a 21-point deficit — the type that can lead to good things.
The hope in Broncos Country is that Week 4's improbable triumph was the catalyst to string together many more wins. If that is to be true, the next win has to be at home this Sunday versus the New York Jets.
Let's talk about three key numbers that will be key issues in determining Week 5's outcome, if the Broncos want to continue these winning ways.
141
The Jets lead the NFL in the number of rushing attempts by the opposing offense, allowing 141 in four games. That's the high water mark so far this season, but the real key to victory for the Broncos is sticking to the run.
The Jets defense is not a sieve against the run by any means as they have only given up 4.2 yards per carry (middle of the pack). However, when digging a little deeper, teams that have stuck to the run have handled the Jets well and those that did not keep running, struggled.
The Buffalo Bills had a 13-3 lead in Week 1, but decided to abandon the rushing game in the third quarter by handing it off only twice. By the fourth quarter the score was 16-16 and they lost in overtime. The Kansas City Chiefs did something very similar.
Kansas City was cruising with a 17-0 lead only to run the ball three times in the third quarter. The next thing we witnessed was a tied game at 20-20. These two teams are considered the best in the NFL and one lost to the Jets, and the other nearly lost.
The two teams that kept running had success. The Dallas Cowboys were leading 18-10 and continued with the rushing attack with 12 carries in the third quarter.
Dallas then blew the doors off the Jets by winning 30-10. The New England Patriots, not a great team this season, were up 10-0 to start the third quarter and kept handing the ball to the running backs. The Patriots kept the Jets at bay long enough to secure a 15-10 victory.
The moral of the story is, stick to the run and the Broncos can win the game.
30%
It's no secret that Jets quarterback Zach Wilson struggles against pressure. In fact, when the opposing defense applies pressure at a 30% rate or better, his record is 1-5 across 2022 and 2023.
When the rate is less than that, Wilson is 5-2.
The Broncos defense has to manufacture pressure on Wilson. Hopefully, it can be done without blitzing, but that would require great a individual effort from the edge rushers and interior defensive line.
So far, the Broncos' standout in the pass rush game has been Nik Bonitto. He took over the starting spot and made Randy Gregory expendable.
The Broncos can only hope that Bonitto's production continues. The issue has been a lack of an interior rush, especially from defensive end Zach Allen.
Allen has to step up his game in a big way this Sunday. The defense has to make Wilson nervous in the pocket and force him to make a decision quickly. By doing so, Wilson will make mistakes leading to more opportunities for the Broncos’ offense.
6.6
The Broncos can't let Jets running back Breece Hall beat them with explosive plays. So far this season, he has a 6.6 average per carry with runs of 83, 43, and 26 yards as well as other chunk gains.
The Broncos defense must limit him to a moderate output. If Denver can contain Hall and the other running backs, it will be up to Wilson’s arm to beat the Broncos.
The Broncos should take their chances going against Wilson as a passer rather than Hall as a runner.
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