3 Keys to Broncos Upsetting Dolphins in Week 3
Denver, CO. — The 2023 Denver Broncos squad that was supposed to usher in a new era continues to desperately search for its first victory of the regular season. Sunday’s loss to the Washington Commanders was the second consecutive game that the Broncos lost at home after being embarrassed by the Las Vegas Raiders in the season opener.
A slave to history, the Broncos continue to ride a nine-game losing streak in which they’ve lost matchups when leading at halftime, which is an NFL record. Meanwhile, Sean Payton has made history for losing his first two games by two points or less, making him the first head coach in 90 years with a new team to fall back-to-back by such a close margin.
Prior to the matchup with Washington, Payton owned a 72-0 record in games where his team led by 18 points. Denver blew exactly an 18-point lead against the Commanders, much to the dismay and frustration of Broncos Country.
Now the 0-2 Broncos are staring down a long and treacherous two-week road trip with their first stop against the 2-0 Miami Dolphins this Sunday. This will be the Fins' first home game at Hard Rock Stadium after beating the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots on the road.
Many fans and analysts have already written the Broncos off in 2023, especially in this road tilt against a dynamic opponent. But here are three keys to the Broncos shocking the NFL in Week 3 and throwing a wet blanket on the red-hot Dolphins.
Spoil Chubb's Revenge
Bradley Chubb — the former 2018 Broncos first-round pick who was dealt to the Dolphins last year — has a lot to play for this Sunday. He was signed to a five-year, $110 million contract extension in 2022 and earned his second Pro Bowl nod.
If Chubb wasn't geeked up enough for this Broncos tilt, the Dolphins' pass rusher will be playing even more inspired after his cousin Nick Chubb suffered a brutal season-ending knee injury on Monday Night Football. Then there’s the revenge factor of yearning to beat the team that traded Chubb for a first-round draft pick, which was used to acquire Payton's rights from the Saints.
In two games, Chubb is credited with 11 tackles (seven solo), three tackles for a loss, two QB hits, one sack, and one fumble recovery. The 27-year-old edge defender has also been reunited with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who was hired by Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel this offseason.
Chubb also gets to square off against long-time teammate Garett Bolles. Bolles and Chubb worked against one another in practice for years, and their training camp scraps have been well documented.
Nobody knows each other better than these two players from an O-line/D-line perspective, and it’s imperative that Bolles keep his wits about him as Chubb will more than likely try to agitate his former teammate, hoping for an emotional response via penalty. So far, Bolles has remained penalty-free, according to Pro Football Focus, and has only surrendered one sack out of the 130 total snaps that he’s played.
It would d behoove Payton and Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi to assist Bolles against Chubb’s pass rush with fullback Michael Burton out of the backfield or tight end Chris Manhertz from the line of scrimmage. That’s not to say that Bolles can’t handle his own, but adaptation has been a struggle for Payton and his coaching staff the last two games.
The last thing the Broncos can afford is for Russell Wilson to get a beatdown from Chubb in a revenge game.
Follow the Recipe to Beating Fangio’s Defense
When the Broncos and Dolphins take the field in Miami this Sunday, three men in the same game will have all held the title of Denver’s head coach. Vance Joseph and Vic Fangio will coordinate their respective defenses while Payton aims to earn his first win with the franchise.
But perhaps Payton should look back to the last time that he went head-to-head against Fangio’s Broncos defense. Three years ago, when the world and NFL were overwhelmed with the pandemic, the Saints whipped the Broncos to the tune of 31-3 in a game that is infamously known among Broncos Country as the '2020 COVID Game.’
It featured Kendall Hinton at quarterback, while Phillip Lindsay officially started the game via direct snap due to the NFL barring all of Denver's actual signal-callers from playing due to violating COVID-19 policies. The Saints were without Drew Brees and started Taysom Hill at quarterback in his place without missing a beat, as this game would go down in history as an embarrassing blowout with unacceptable optics.
The fundamental aspect of Payton’s then-game plan was to run the football down Fangio’s throat. Behind Latavius Murray, Alvin Kamara, and Hill, the Saints rushed for 229 yards on 44 plays, averaging 5.2 yards per rush. By utilizing a dominant rushing attack, the Saints' offense clocked a (35:46) time of possession compared to Denver’s (24:14).
While I understand that Wilson is not Hill and the circumstances are different three years later, the blueprint to beat Fangio’s defense is there. Control the clock by running the football for the duration of the game.
Against the Chargers in Week 1, the Dolphins allowed 233 rushing yards on 40 plays (5.8 YPC) and still gutted out the close game with a win. But last week’s matchup against the Patriots was a different story, as Fangio’s unit was very productive in stuffing the run, while New England seemingly gave up on its ineffective rushing attack.
Here's to hoping that Payton will unleash Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin with a ground-and-pound attack against the Dolphins this Sunday.
Heal Self Inflicted Wounds
While the national media continues to pit Payton and Wilson against each other and have declared the marriage a disaster within the first two weeks of the regular season, the Broncos have made a quick habit of self-destructing.
This week Payton revealed that Denver is tied for the most penalties (19) and leads the NFL with 12 defensive penalties and five personal fouls in just two games. One of my most glaring takeaways from Week 2 was that team captain Kareem Jackson’s performance was unacceptable after being ejected for a vicious hit to the head of a defenseless receiver.
The 14th-year veteran safety was flagged and fined for a second straight week after knocking out Raiders wideout Jakobi Meyers with a similar hit to the head in Week 1's loss.
According to Statmuse, Denver has amassed the second most number of penalties (132) in the last 19 games played from 2022 to now and has a 5-14 record to show for it. As important as his game plan to beat the Dolphins is, Payton must also enforce some discipline on his football team.
Payton was brought to Denver to right the wrongs of what has become an inept unhinged collection of players, not to add to it.
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