Broncos Offense Could be Poised to Explode on NFL Based on This Metric
The Denver Broncos’ offense has been an enigma this season. While Denver's defense has resulted in the most attention this season after its historically poor start to the season to evolving into one of the NFL leader in takeaways, the offense has done just enough to draw complaints from the tougher critics and praise from those enjoying the competency displayed in comparison to 2022.
Russell Wilson is playing exponentially better football this season, the Broncos' offensive line appears to be a strength, and Sean Payton has the team going in the right direction. But are the Broncos actually good on offense?
The reality of Denver’s 2023 offense through Week 12 is that the unit is squarely middle-of-the-pack in comparison to its league counterparts. Denver ranks 16th in EPA/Play at -0.019 and 17th in Success Rate at 42.6%.
Even when splitting offense and rushing EPA/Play, Denver is average for both, ranking 15th in each category. It's worth reiterating what a departure this is from last season’s output, where the Broncos' offense ranked bottom five and bottom 10 in most major statistical categories, but under the offensive mastermind Payton and Wilson, Denver has simply been okay.
The Broncos have found a formula that works as a team, combining a physical ball-control offense with a defense driven by takeaways, but the reality is that this team will need more from its offense going forward to continue its winning streak and catapult itself from a 1-5 start all the way to the NFL playoffs.
Since the Broncos’ winning streak began in Week 7, the offense has been afforded the best average starting field in the NFL, beginning drives at their own 37-yard line. The offense's EPA/Play has ranked a fine 13th in the NFL over that time period at 0.00, but the team’s offensive success rate ranks 24th in the NFL at 41.25% and explosive play rate at just 7.81%.
Fortunately, Denver has done exceedingly well in protecting the football, with just three giveaways in the last five games. Wilson and the Broncos have also done better at avoiding sacks over the team’s winning streak as well, going from 3.17 sacks per game over the first six frames to 2.8 over the last five.
Can the Broncos’ offense turn it around going forward to help combat increasingly inevitable takeaway regression from the defense? Fortunately for Broncos Country, that answer should be an emphatic yes.
After Denver vanquished Cleveland’s No. 1-ranked defense in both EPA/Play and Success Rate, the Broncos' schedule looks like it's about to get a whole lot easier for the offense. According to Pro Football Focus, the Broncos have played one of the single toughest schedules for the offense so far in 2023.
In terms of defensive strength of opponents over the first 12 weeks of the season, the Broncos are essentially tied for No. 2 with the Los Angeles Chargers. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a more difficult gauntlet of opponents in 2023.
Over the first 11 games of the season, six of Denver’s opponents are ranked in the top 10 in EPA/Play, with only two opponents in the bottom 10. Going forward, though, the Broncos face far and away the easiest set of defensive opponents in the NFL.
So putting up overall league-average numbers in many key advanced metrics isn't so bad when considering the strength of defenses Denver has played in 2023. Fortunately for Denver, things seem like they are going to get a lot easier for the offense going forward.
PFF also breaks down how Denver’s defensive strength of opponents through the rest of the 2023 regular season is far and away the easiest in the entire NFL. Denver does not play a single defense in the top 15 in EPA/Play or Success Rate going forward this year.
Denver should find it tough sledding to run versus the New England Patriots, who rank No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Rush, and the Houston Texans, who are fifth. With Payton at the helm, the Broncos should be potent enough to scheme offensive efficiency regardless of the defenses they face the rest of the season.
What does better offense look like for Denver to close out the season and continue a push towards a wildcard berth? A consistent output down-to-down, continuing to limit negative plays in turnovers and sacks while starting to hit more big plays.
While Denver has been playing solid, complementary football over its five-game winning streak, the offense needs to be better by down. A 24th-ranked success rate since Week 7 (41.25%) won’t cut it if and when the defense’s turnover regression comes.
While Denver has been scoring enough points to win with excellent field position, the offense needs to be more explosive while still limiting negatives. Explosive plays are so important in the NFL, as illustrated by the data shared by Warren Sharp.
Since Week 7, Denver has ranked 23rd in the NFL in explosive play rate at 7.81% of its offensive plays. An explosive play is defined by any run of 10-plus yards and any pass of 20-plus.
The Broncos' explosive rush rate over their win streak has actually been good at 11.72% of their rush attempts. The passing game, though, has been one of the least explosive in the NFL at just 4.57% of the passes going for 20-plus yards, ranking as the fifth-lowest explosive passing offense over the same time period.
The Broncos have been on an absolute heater as of late and find themselves in the midst of the Wildcard hunt after winning five games in a row. The key driver of the Broncos during this winning streak has undoubtedly been the turnover margin, as Denver takes the ball away at an incredible rate while protecting the football, which results in phenomenal starting field position for both the offense and defense.
The Takeaway
However, with the extreme likelihood that the takeaways for the defense should slow down in comparison to its current torrential rate, the Broncos will need their offense to step up and play better than the middle-of-the-pack output shown this season.
Given the difficulty of defensive opponents the Broncos have faced, compared to what the offense will match up with going forward, much better statistical output from the offense should not only be hoped for but demanded from fans.
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