3 Critical Numbers Illustrate Broncos' Clear Path to Beating Patriots
The Denver Broncos' playoff hopes are hanging by a thread after the drubbing they took in Detroit. The good news is the Broncos are playing the New England Patriots at home this week.
The Patriots have a good defense but a lackluster offense. This is a winnable game that the Broncos must capitalize on if they have any chance of getting back to the top of the Wildcard race.
As we continue to preview Broncos-Patriots, let's examine three critical numbers the Broncos must exploit to come out on top and get to eight wins for the first time since 2016.
+1
If the Broncos can win the turnover battle, they'll win the game. The Patriots have not been able to overcome even a -1 (minus) turnover differential. In the games where the Patriots were even or at least a +1 in the turnover differential, they're 3-4, while they're 0-7 in games when they're -1 or worse.
New England doesn't possess the offense to overcome that deficiency. The Patriots have a good defense that can keep the score close, but with extra chances for the Broncos’ offense, they won’t be able to keep up.
The Broncos need to be efficient on offense and must not turn it over. Even if Denver is unable to take the ball away, the Patriots are beatable.
Luckily, the Patriots have turned the ball over in every game this season except one. They've coughed it up multiple times in six of those games.
15%
The Patriots are likely starting quarterback Bailey Zappe for the rest of the season. Regardless of whether he's an upgrade over Mac Jones, Zappe is susceptible to pressure.
In the games Zappe has started the past two seasons, the Patriots have lost when he has been pressured at a rate close to 15% or more. When that rate is near 10% or less, they've won.
The Broncos must get their pass rush revved up and get after Zappe. The pressure should lead to the aforementioned turnovers and a much-needed win. The good news is Denver's defense has a pressure rate above 20% in the last five games.
20
If the Broncos can get to 20 points in this game, a win is nearly assured. The Patriots have scored more than 20 points in only two games this season.
Again, New England has an anemic offense, and it'll be missing two first-teamers — running back Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. If the Broncos can be efficient on offense and not turn the ball over, they'll have a great shot at winning this game.
Furthermore, the Broncos should take all the points they can get. Kicking field goals instead of going for it on fourth down is warranted. Get to 20 points in this game, and a victory is nearly assured. It doesn’t matter if most of those points come from the kicking game.
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