Broncos' Playoff Hunt: Which Teams to Root for in Week 15
As the 2023 NFL season enters the final four weeks, the Denver Broncos are in the thick of a heated playoff race in the AFC. One of six teams with a 7-6 record, the Broncos have three teams a game ahead of them in the Wildcard race, including the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs.
I've analyzed Denver's playoff outlook entering Week 15. That touches on games this week but focuses on the 10,000-foot situation over the remaining four weeks.
There are eight Week 15 games that mean a lot for the Broncos' playoff hopes. They're worth highlighting and getting into the nitty gritty as to why, with one game, in particular, being crucial.
With that said, let's get into Broncos Country's rooting interests for Week 15.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
There isn't much to get into here. A win is best for the Broncos, as it would take their chances of making the playoffs from 49% to 72%.
If the Broncos are going to lose a game over their final four, this is the one they could most afford to lose. The Broncos will face two divisional opponents in their last three games. Remember, when it comes to tiebreakers, the second one is a divisional win/loss percentage.
The Broncos also have a conference game next week. Conference win/loss percentage is the third tiebreaker relative to the playoffs.
This tilt vs. the Detroit Lions is a non-conference game, so it has the most negligible impact on the tiebreaker scenarios, making it a little easier to make the playoffs as a Wildcard at 10-7 than if the Broncos were to lose to one of their other three opponents.
However, a loss here still would hurt Denver's playoff chances and it would impact the AFC West race, too. Without factoring in the final three weeks, a loss in Detroit would drop Denver's playoff chances from 49% to 38%.
It's also worth mentioning that the Chiefs lost to the Lions this season, so a win at Ford Field would give the Broncos that benefit among common opponents relative to the AFC West crown.
When you factor in those final three weeks, a 3-1 record with a loss to the Lions gives Denver a 92% chance to make it, but a loss to any of the other three teams would be about 85% chance.
The bottom line is the Broncos need to win out, which would give them a >99% chance of making the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
It's quite clear where Broncos Country's rooting interests lie in this week's slate of games. This Vikings-Bengals is one of them.
Even though the Broncos would stay ahead of the Bengals if both teams win out, it would be best if Denver didn't have to resort to tiebreakers. A loss to the Vikings would put the Bengals at 7-7.
That would put Cincy behind the Broncos' 8-6 record, provided they beat the Lions. Denver wouldn't move up in the hunt as a result of Cincy losing this game, but it's about keeping one of the other teams in the hunt down.
The overall impact of this game increases Denver's playoff chances by about 1% with a Vikings win, but a Bengals win doesn't improve anything. All it would do is keep the Bengals right in the thick of it instead of putting them a game behind the pack.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
This is the coin flip of the week. Both teams losing would benefit the Broncos.
Both teams' remaining schedules come into play here, and the Broncos need the Steelers and Colts to go 3-1 over their final four to get into the playoffs, though 2-2 would be the ideal scenario.
The Steelers have a demanding schedule with their remaining three games, while the Colts' final three are much more manageable. So, while the outcome of this game is essentially a +/- of 1%, to get the best result, a Steelers win would technically be better and would drop the Colts to a 7-7 record.
This game has more of an impact when it comes to specific playoff seeding and not just making the playoffs. It would help the Broncos get to the fifth or sixth seed if the Steelers win.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
This is another easy one. The Broncos own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Browns, but Cleveland currently sits a game ahead of them. A Bears win increases Denver's chances of making the playoffs, while a Browns win lowers it.
Among this week's slate of games, the outcome of Bears-Browns has one of the most significant impacts on the Broncos' playoff outlook. Let's go, Bears!
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
The Texans are among the many 7-6 teams, and the Titans sit at 5-8. Much like the previous game, this is one of the clearer games of deducing the Broncos' rooting interest. It also has one of the bigger impacts this week on the Broncos' chances.
A Texans win would put them at 8-6, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos. A Titans win would make 7-7, and it would put them just one game behind an 8-6 Broncos (if they beat the Lions).
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
The Jets and Dolphins game may not seem to have a rooting interest for the Broncos. It's another coin flip, but like Steelers-Colts, this game matters for the possible long-term scenarios where the Dolphins could lose the division and make it harder for Denver to make the playoffs.
The Jets sit with a 5-8 record, and a win would technically keep them in the hunt, but even though a win would get them to 6-8, their playoff chances are still meager. This game is about the 9-4 Dolphins getting into a position to clinch the AFC East.
Miami's following two games are against a pair of teams fighting for the top seed in the AFC and the NFC, respectively. If the Dolphins lose this one, they could easily finish the season with a potential division-deciding game.
For now, let's go, Jets!
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
This is an easy one. The Broncos still have a chance of winning the division title, and the Chiefs are in the way. Every loss they suffer gets the Broncos closer to a potential divisional crown.
Due to tiebreakers, the Broncos would still need another loss from the Chiefs against the Los Angeles Chargers or Las Vegas Raiders to clinch the division.
A loss to the Patriots would help cover in case the Broncos go 3-1 to close the season, losing, specifically, to the Lions.
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
The Cowboys are called 'America's Team,' which is often debated, but they are Broncos Country's team this week. To help the Broncos, Dallas needs to beat the Bills.
While the Broncos own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, there is a way the Bills can win their division, with the Dolphins taking a Wildcard spot and pushing Denver down or even out of the playoffs. However, for Denver to be pushed out of the playoffs would require a Broncos loss, so winning out avoids that possibility.
If the Bills lose this game, their playoff chances drop significantly. The pairing of a Dolphins win and Bills loss this week is a sizeable increase to the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs as they can eclipse 80%.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Ravens-Jaguars doesn't have a direct impact on the Broncos in the short term, but it could in the long term. A Jaguars loss keeps the AFC South crown up for grabs, with the Texans and Colts still pushing for it.
The Jaguars don't play either of those two teams again this season, but the Colts and Texans do face off in the season finale. A Jaguars loss to Baltimore could put a lot more into that finale and significantly influence the AFC seeding.
Additionally, a Jaguars loss can help the Broncos' playoff seeding if they manage to win the division. So it's a coin flip relative to how it impacts the Broncos' playoff chances, but it does matter quite a bit with potential seeding.
The Takeaway
Hopefully, Denver wins, and most games turn out the way that Broncos Country wants it to. If the Broncos win, then there will be even fewer teams that fans will have to keep track of next week from a rooting interest perspective.
That would be a good thing, as it would mean the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs have risen significantly.
When it's all said and done, that's what Broncos Country wants.
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