3 Critical Stats to Broncos Beating the Raiders
The long-awaited arrival of the 2023 NFL regular season has arrived, and with it comes the new-look Denver Broncos under head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos start off the season against the Las Vegas Raiders, looking to end a six-game losing streak to their bitter AFC West rival.
The Raiders have had the Broncos' number dating back to 2020. There are many matchups and keys to victory that can be examined, but instead, I'm going to break down three numbers the Broncos must capitalize on in their Week 1 tilt.
5.6
The Raiders had a potent running game last season, and Josh Jacobs seems to play out of his mind when facing the Broncos. Stopping him is important, particularly on the edges.
In the latter half of the 2022 season, the Raiders gained 5.6 yards per carry when attacking the edge, nearly a yard better than the NFL average. Starting outside linebackers Randy Gregory and Jonathon Cooper — fresh off of winning the job — have to set the edge and contain the running backs.
If the duo can do this, the Broncos have a shot at holding Jacobs to a manageable rushing total. If not, the defense is in for a long and embarrassing day.
59.7
Last season, the Raiders were hit or miss defending tight ends. However, Vegas was particularly bad against unexpected producers at that position.
The Raiders gave up six sizable yardage totals to tight ends, but half of those games came from players whom they may not have game-planned for. Players like Jordan Akins and Kylen Granson came out of nowhere to have a solid game.
This group of 'surprise' players averaged 59.7 receiving yards in those games. This could bode well for Broncos tight end Adam Trautman.
Trautman was not expected to win the starting role for the Broncos, but he did just that, and many are expecting Greg Dulcich to be the star receiver of the tight end group. Trautman has a good rapport with Russell Wilson and was a solid pass-catcher in training camp.
Trautman may surprise fans and the Raiders defense with a solid day.
7.0
All the moves the Broncos made in the offseason indicated that the offense will rely heavily on the run game. Much of the talk has been focused on that part of the game plan in order to help Wilson right the ship after a very down year last season.
However, the Broncos offense will focus on the quick read/short passing game, too. Against the Raiders, you may not see Denver's running game unleashed early because the Silver and Black defense struggled against the short passing game when deployed on first down in the latter half of the 2022 season.
The Raiders gave up 7.0 yards per reception on first down, nearly a yard worse than the NFL average and three yards worse when an opposing offense ran on first down against their defense. The Raiders also did not record an interception during that time frame when the opposing quarterback passed to the short areas of the field.
The Broncos need to utilize high-percentage plays early to keep the third down attempts short. Courtland Sutton’s 50/50 ball ability could be a nice factor in this game, and the quick throws will be a solid strategy to neutralize the potent pass rush of Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby.
There has been much speculation about how Payton will deploy his offense. One thing is for certain; he will attack the defense’s weaknesses.
When the game is over, there may be two surprise stars, and both are likely to be from the passing attack instead of the running game.
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