Extreme Actions: Broncos' 3 Paths to Becoming Cap-Compliant in 2024
As the Denver Broncos approach the offseason, the first order of business is becoming salary-cap compliant. While it remains to be seen what the actual cap for 2024 will be, the Broncos are projected to be $23.6 million above the cap, assuming a base cap of $242 million.
Although Over the Cap indicates that the 'effective cap space' shows the Broncos will be at $27.4M above the projected cap, it reflects the fact that not every team has 51 players under contract for 2024. Teams still in the playoffs have yet to sign players to futures contracts.
During the offseason, the top 51 cutoff rule is in effect for the cap. This means that only the top 51 cap hits count toward the cap, while those below that cutoff don't count.
The Broncos currently have 59 players under contract, including those on futures contracts, so the $23.6M above the cap figure is to be assumed until the actual base cap is known.
Even so, the Broncos are going to be above the cap regardless of the actual number. This begs the question: how does Denver become cap-compliant?
There are three possible scenarios the Broncos may consider to get under the cap while still having at least 51 players under contract. What scenario the Broncos choose depends on the team's confidence in how close it is to being a regular playoff contender with the roster as currently constructed.
Let's examine those three scenarios and what they mean.
Scenario 1: Run it All Back
Under this scenario, the Broncos go forward with nearly the entire roster intact. To do so, this requires a number of restructures or extensions to become cap compliant.
The first step would be to restructure the contracts of DL Zach Allen, OG Ben Powers, OT Mike McGlinchey, and LB Alex Singleton, all of whom signed multi-year contracts during the 2023 offseason. If the Broncos go with a maximum restructure on all four players, they'll get themselves under the cap by $5.83M.
The second step would be to give short-term extensions to LT Garett Bolles and S Justin Simmons. If the Broncos convert the maximum possible amount of their base salaries into signing bonuses, they could gain as much as $20M in additional cap space.
All of this gets the Broncos cap complaint without having to cut a single player. The Broncos would then have enough cap space to retain a few players, add other free agents, and sign draft picks.
The downside to this is that the Broncos would find it more difficult to get out of certain contracts after 2025. Though McGlinchey is likely tied to the Broncos in 2025, they might want to move on from Powers, Singleton, or Allen if their play declines in 2024.
There's also the question of how much longer Bolles and Simmons have left in their careers. Though Bolles played well and Simmons earned a Pro Bowl bid, one can never tell when decline will set in.
If the Broncos go with this scenario, they'd be showing confidence that they are just a few players away from becoming a playoff contender. It also means the Broncos are more likely to commit to Russell Wilson for the next couple of seasons.
Scenario 2: Run it Back... Slightly
In the second scenario, the Broncos would indicate they want to transition toward a different roster but keep a few pieces in place.
This means they would not restructure all of their 2023 free-agent signings and may be less inclined to extend aging players. It also means there's a greater chance that they will move on from Wilson and deal with the pain of his massive dead money charges for 2024 and 2025.
This scenario means the Broncos are certain to cut WR Tim Patrick and DL D.J. Jones to free up about $19.5M in cap space. Those two moves by themselves are not enough to get the Broncos under the cap, though.
The next step would be to trade at least one player. In this case, the best candidate to trade may be WR Jerry Jeudy, who may be younger than Courtland Sutton, but the latter would arguably be the better receiver to keep for a slight rollback. Trading Jeudy would free nearly $13M in cap space.
If Patrick and Jones are cut and Jeudy is traded, the Broncos become cap-compliant. They'd need to restructure at least one player's contract for more space. Allen would be the best bet here, given that he had a quality 2023 season.
The Broncos could still consider an extension for either Bolles or Simmons to clear cap space, but they may not extend both. The argument to extend Bolles is that offensive tackles have longer careers, while the argument to extend Simmons is that he's still considered one of the best safeties in the NFL.
The advantage to this scenario is the Broncos don't kick too much money down the road through multiple restructures. The disadvantage is that the Broncos would have a few more holes to fill and, even after trading Jeudy, would need to find ways to acquire more draft capital.
Scenario 3: Reset by Going Younger
The last scenario means the Broncos believe they need to go a different direction with most of the roster by getting younger. That means they will not restructure anybody, nor will they extend any of their players not on rookie contracts
Instead, the intent is to trade players for more draft picks to replenish the roster. If the Bronchos choose to reset, they are more likely to trade Sutton than Jeudy because Sutton is older. Trading Sutton would free $9.75M in cap space.
Bolles and Simmons would likely be traded as well. Trading the former player would free up $16M, and trading the latter would free up $14.5M.
Along with cutting Patrick and Jones, the Broncos would have $36M in cap space. That would allow the team a better opportunity to explore free agency or retain its free agents.
While the upside there is clear, the flipside is that the Broncos will need to do a good job of finding the right free agents and hitting on draft picks. They'll need to at least find players who will allow the team to push for the playoffs by 2025.
It goes without saying that the Broncos will cut Wilson in this scenario. The team would then need to draft a quarterback at some point and figure out whether that QB can be the one to build around.
The Takeaway
Regardless of the decision made about Wilson, there are ways for the Broncos to become cap-compliant. Each one comes with trade-offs, though, so it's important to ask which ones make the most sense.
While the Broncos did show improvement in terms of wins, and the defense got better after a disastrous start, it's not clear this team is just a few players away from returning to the playoffs in 2024.
But if the Broncos believe they are, they should approach the offseason as such. That makes the first scenario I described the better one to pursue.
If the Broncos believe they aren't close but that 2025 is a better target, the third scenario makes sense. If they believe they could get there, but aren't satisfied with the roster as constructed, then the second scenario is for the best.
I'll talk more about which approach I believe is the best to take, but these three scenarios give fans something to think about to determine what makes the most sense.
No matter what approach is taken, though, the fact remains that the Broncos have much to prove. While head coach Sean Payton and GM George Paton have each done good things, they need to show they can get past some crucial mistakes and get the Broncos to take the next step.
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