Is Broncos Country Sleeping too Much on the Seahawks?
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The oddsmakers have the Denver Broncos as a 6.5-point favorite over the Seattle Seahawks, and many expect them to win by an even wider margin. A significant reason for that is the difference at quarterback for each team.
The Seahawks are going from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith and the Broncos from a combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to a nine-time Pro Bowler. This has led to nearly everyone in Broncos Country expecting a massive win.
That begs the question, though: is Broncos Country wildly underrating the Seahawks? Let's try to answer that question by examining these two teams outside of the quarterback position.
Looking at the Seahawks last year, here is where they stood on offense and defense.
Offense:
- Passing yards per game: 201.9 (23rd)
- Rushing yards per game: 122.0 (11th)
- Points per game: 23.2 (16th)
- Third Down Percentage: 37.3 (23rd)
Defense:
- Passing yards per game: 265.5 (31st)
- Rushing yards per game: 113.6 (17th)
- Points per game: 21.5 (12th)
- Third Down Percentage: 39.3 (14th)
- Pressure Percentage: 22.1% (26th)
- Sacks: 34 (Tied 24th)
The Seahawks ended up having a good rushing game, averaging five yards per attempt, the third-highest in the NFL. Rashaad Penny had some big games to boost the rushing numbers for the Seahawks.
Penny was be the guy at running back for the final five weeks, where he picked up at least 135 yards in four of the games. However, those games came against the 31st, 23rd, 28th, and 20th ranked run defenses in yards allowed per game, respectively.
Despite their issues last season, the Broncos allowed an average of 111.3 yards per game, which was 15th in the NFL. Denver bolstered its run defense by adding D.J. Jones and getting Josey Jewell back and healthy. Having Bradley Chubb is also going to help against the run.
Seattle has a solid running game, but can Penny reproduce those numbers? Will Seattle's reshaped offensive line hold up? Can Smith do enough to help out the run game?
The Seahawks have three new pieces on their offensive line, including both offensive tackles. In fact, both tackles are rookies, and while they showed promise in the preseason, most of their time came against second and third-stringers. Can these rookies hold up against NFL starters?
On the inside, Austin Blythe is Seattle's new center, who has been solid in his time as a starter. The Seahawks' guards, Gabe Jackson and Damien Lewis, were straight-up terrible last season. Nevertheless, Denver should do well in the trenches against the run with Jones in the middle of the defensive line.
Dre'Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams, and D.J. Jones should muster enough internal pressure on Smith, who was under pressure over 38% of the time as a result of his two guards. As for the tackles, Smith was pressured 46.1% of the time. Adding the rookies, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, should help drive that number down.
However, they are rookies, and Chubb's strengths can be used to attack the areas of concern around Cross. As for Lucas, a lot will depend on whether Randy Gregory plays. Gregory would be a bad matchup for Lucas, but if it's Baron Browning, the matchup would be more favorable for the rookie.
Defensively, the Seahawks had a mostly good season, especially with their front seven. However, their secondary was problematic, so they drafted Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. The two rookie corners are much like the two rookie tackles; they had a promising preseason and training camp but didn't go against NFL starters often.
Courtland Sutton could be a significant problem for them. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler could also be problematic, depending on the latter's health. Plus, this is where the improvement at quarterback really goes against the Seahawks.
As for their front seven, the Seattle had a good unit last year but suffered tremendous losses. Carlos Dunlap, Rasheem Green, Kerry Hyder, and Bobby Wagner are some headline Seattle's front-seven exodus. That's a loss of 102 total pressures and 191 tackles.
To replace that, the Seahawks got Shelby Harris in the trade for Wilson and brought in Uchenna Nwosu. That brings 73 total pressures and 55 total tackles to the defense. It's a tremendous loss of production from Seattle's defensive front. The Seahawks also added rookies in Boye Mafe and Tyreke Smith, but they have yet to play a game in the regular season. While the two rookies can cut into the loss of production, it's safe to expect a drop-off in their performance.
Bottom Line
So is Broncos Country widely underrating the Seahawks?
No.
Seattle is widely viewed as one of the worst rosters in the NFL because it suffered some significant losses and at critical positions. The Seahawks are turning to multiple rookies for substantial roles, which will be good for getting experience for future years, but not so much for the present.
The Seahawks seem to be preparing to go after a quarterback in the 2023 class, and in a year or two, they could have a good team. This year, however, Seattle seems to be aiming for a higher draft pick. Denver can help them out in the season opener.
With it being the first game of the season, there will be issues on the Broncos' side of the football, but having a bonafide quarterback is such a difference-maker. But, even outside of that, the Broncos still have the better roster all-around.
While this game won't be easy, Denver is increasingly likely to win by more than a touchdown.
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