Analytics Answer if Broncos' Takeaway Streak is Truly 'Unsustainable'
There's no doubt that the copious amount of takeaways have helped the Denver Broncos bounce back from a 1-5 start, vaulting into the playoff race at 6-5. The Broncos have 16 takeaways over their five-game winning streak, and most analysts are saying it's 'unsustainable.'
At some point, the Broncos can't keep up this abnormal number of interceptions and fumble recoveries. But is it really abnormal? Or can the Broncos continue to take the ball away in large doses?
The team is on pace for 34 takeaways on the year and in today’s game, that would be a large sum. That's on pace for two takeaways per game and is most likely not sustainable, but it's been done before.
Of the past 42 playoff teams, only one team (2%) took the ball away at a two-per-game rate. However, that's not to say the Broncos cannot continue stealing the ball away in bunches.
Five of those playoff teams had 30 or more takeaways, and 15 more had at least 25. The Broncos would have to be nearly shut out in interceptions and fumble recoveries over the last six games to not get to at least 25.
There's a very good chance the Broncos get 30 or more. That means Denver is likely to get eight more takeaways in the last six games and it will be more than one in some of those games.
Going back to those 42 playoff teams, almost all of them (39) averaged at least one takeaway per game, and 40% averaged at least 1.5. The Broncos would have to have a massive dry spell in the final games to be under 1.5 per game.
Currently, Denver has six games with multiple takeaways, putting it on pace for nine this season. 12 of the 42 playoff teams accomplished that feat. Nearly half of them had at least eight games with more than one interception/fumble recovery.
Neither scenario of 30 or more takeaways and nine games with multiple turnovers is outside the realm of possibility. It's been done a few times in the past three seasons, and Denver is on pace to hit both marks.
So far, the Broncos have only had two games where they did not tally a takeaway, which likely means they'll finish with three zero-turnover games when it's all said and done. That happened 16 times with those 42 playoff teams.
This is pointing to one thing: the Broncos can sustain a pace that's not as low as the first six games but likely not quite as good as the last five games. Events on the field cannot always be predicted by numbers, but based on what has happened, it's likely Denver will have three multiple-takeaway games on its schedule, one game with zero and two with one.
That's not at the pace of Denver's five-game winning streak, but it's what the team will need down the stretch.
From which remaining game will those interceptions and fumbles come? Next up are the Houston Texans, who'd been very stingy in turning the ball over until the last two games. The Texans have 11 total for the season, but six happened in their prior two games.
Is this an indication that Houston is getting more careless with the ball? Perhaps.
Next up is the Los Angeles Chargers, who have coughed it up 12 times. The Detroit Lions have 17 turnovers, and the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders have 21 (nearly two per game).
The most likely scenario is that the Broncos' defense will get the better of the Patriots and Raiders in the turnover department. For some reason, the Lions have not done well keeping the ball out of the opposing team’s hands at home and have seven turnovers in their last two games.
To predict the actual turnover events is difficult, but if the Broncos are two to have multiple takeaways in a game, it will likely be from the Patriots, Raiders, and Lions. The other three games are likely to feature zero and one.
Regardless of which team gives the ball away in the final six games, it's likely the Broncos will not continue on the torrid takeaway pace of the past five games. However, Denver's pace will still be at a high clip as it fights its way into the playoffs.
The Broncos will more than likely have eight more before the season ends. Any more than that, and they'll have one of the best takeaway tallies of any team that has been to the playoffs in the past three seasons.
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