Predicting Broncos' Rumored 'Fire Sale' Based on NFL Precedent
The Denver Broncos aren't very good and have not been for a number of years. This ineptitude has persisted through different coaching regimes and quarterbacks.
A roster lacking talent has much to do with this long period of losing. In order to regain this franchise's winning ways, it's important to make roster changes.
Thus, the Broncos need to make some tough decisions, and that could start by making trades ahead of the deadline this season, which is next Tuesday, October 31.
The rumors have purported a 'fire sale' coming to Denver. If that's true, many players should be on the trade block.
Is that realistic, though? How many players will the Broncos trade? History indicates what's the most likely to happen. Let's examine.
Weighing the Broncos vs. NFL Precedent
Based on what's transpired in the NFL over the past five years, during the two to three weeks leading up to the trade deadline, the Broncos are unlikely to make many trades. Since 2018, there have been a total of 62 trades, which seems like a lot, but in reality, it equates to about one trade for every three teams. In other words, only a third of the teams make a trade at the deadline.
Over those five seasons, teams that have traded players away for draft picks typically don’t exceed two players in the cycle. That's hardly a fire sale of epic proportions as one would perhaps anticipate for a team like the Broncos who need to stockpile draft picks and overhaul a roster.
The most players traded by a single team in the past five seasons occurred in 2020. The New York Jets traded Avery Williamson, Jordan Willis, and Steve McLendon for fifth, sixth, and sixth-round selections, respectively. Not exactly a massive haul for a Jets team needing a rebuild and in the midst of their fifth straight losing season.
The Broncos are in the same situation. The team needs to overhaul its personnel and collect more draft picks. The Broncos have already traded Randy Gregory, so it's highly likely the trade deadline will come and go with maybe one more additional trade. Two at the very most.
Currently, there are only five prime trade candidates on the roster based on their contract, ability, age, and value. Those players are safety Justin Simmons, left tackle Garett Bolles, wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and linebacker Josey Jewell.
All five are valuable to other teams that are contenders for the playoffs this season and may not be in the future plans for the Broncos. Bolles has been playing well, and trading him at the deadline vs. prior to the NFL draft has little impact difference in the salary cap. Unless a team makes an offer the Broncos cannot refuse, he's likely in the Orange and Blue for the rest of the season.
Sutton’s salary-cap impact this season vs. prior to the draft leans toward a trade at the deadline, but Sean Payton seems to have the veteran wideout in his future plans. Sutton is getting most of the targets and is playing well.
Wide receivers tend to have value in their early 30s, and Sutton can be a valuable player for the team over the next three seasons. His contract is a bit outsized for his production, but it would be a bit of a surprise to see him traded at the deadline.
Out of the three remaining players, Jeudy is the most likely to be dealt away. If the Broncos want to match what the Jets did in 2020, then Simmons is the next most likely to go because Jewell has little value due to his age and the fact that he'll be a free agent after this season.
The fact of the matter is the trade deadline will come and go with little excitement for the Broncos. The salacious rumors of a Mile High 'fire sale' at the deadline will be unfounded.
Any trade the Broncos make is more likely to happen in a combination of one or two players before Tuesday's deadline (maybe), and another one or two prior to the 2024 NFL draft.
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