3 Critical Stats Reveal Broncos' Path to Beating Vikings
There is excitement in Broncos Country for the first time in a long time. The Denver Broncos have put together some impressive wins, and there is renewed interest in a possible playoff run.
With a record of 4-5, there is little room for error, so this matchup with the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football is very important. The Broncos must win at home to keep this streak going, but it won’t be an easy task as the Vikings are red-hot, winning the last five games in a row.
How can the Broncos make it four straight wins and fully push into the AFC playoff hunt? Here are three numbers that will come to bear.
74%
The Vikings’ defense is vulnerable to the short passing attack, giving up a 74% completion rate to quarterbacks who attack the field less than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. This is an increase over the 69% the rest of the defenses in the NFL have yielded.
Furthermore, the Vikings' defense is credited with a single interception in the short part of the field, but in reality, it was a deep pass attempt that was deflected at the line. The Broncos must be in sync with their quick passing.
Russell Wilson has to get his timing right in this game and hit his target quickly. Jerry Jeudy could be a huge factor if he can get off the line and create separation quickly.
Jeudy will most likely be a large part of the game plan, but the Broncos would be wise to throw the ball up to Courtland Sutton in some of the short areas of the field, too. If Wilson can have a completion percentage of 68% or greater, he will have a very good day against this defense.
The short passing game will also negate the rush of the league leader in sacks Danielle Hunter. The Vikings can get after the quarterback, and it will be up to left tackle Garett Bolles and the offensive line to rise to the challenge.
5.2
The Vikings' offense will look to establish the run in the first two quarters of the game, with an emphasis on attacking right behind the center. In their wins, the Vikings have an average per carry of 5.2 yards in the first half (removing runs of 20-plus yards), a full 1.5 yards better than the NFL average.
In the Vikings' losses, they've still had an effective running behind the center, but with only a 4.0-yard-per-carry average. Being able to run the ball up the gut early has been key to Viking victories.
Broncos defensive tackles D.J. Jones and Mike Purcell have their work cut out and will need to be better than they have this season at stopping the run. Vikings center Garrett Bradbury has been playing very well this season, and it's showing up in the rushing attack.
If the Broncos' defense can put a stop to the runs up the middle, it will force quarterback Joshua Dobbs to beat them with his arm, which is exactly what the Broncos want.
30%
The key to the Broncos' pass rush in this game is defensive end Zach Allen. The Vikings have given up 23 sacks this season, and 30% of them have come from interior defensive linemen.
Allen has been getting better as the season has progressed, and this could be his big statistical game. He will line up mostly against Ed Ingram, but we could see him going up against former Bronco Dalton Risner.
Either way, the matchup between Allen and the Vikings' interior offensive line will be the reason Denver's pass rush is impactful. He's been consistently increasing his pass-rush metrics since the first two weeks of the season, and this could very well be the game that fans see what the Broncos paid for this offseason.
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