Broncos vs. Saints Week 12 Odds: Denver Opens as Home Underdogs

The Denver Broncos shocked the NFL world last week, beating a red-hot Miami Dolphins 20-13. Just when fans thought the Broncos had mailed it in for the year, this team seems to find a way to generate that glimmer of hope.

This week, the Broncos draw another top team with the New Orleans Saints who've won seven games in a row. It should shock no one that the Saints are 5.5-point favorites according to SportsBetting.com.

Let's break down the relevant numbers for bettors this coming Sunday. And what insights the odds might provide for Broncos-Saints.

ATS: Saints -6

Over/Under: 43.5

Moneyline: Saints -270/Broncos +230

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What it Means

ATS: Both teams have been hovering around the .500 mark when it comes to betting on the spread. The Saints are 5-5 while the Broncos are 6-4 over the last 10 games. Over the last three games, though, the Saints have won by double digits and have seen a huge surge in their defensive effort, only allowing just over 8-points per game during that stretch.

However, this game is a bit more complicated because of the change at quarterback for the Saints as Taysom Hill had a very up-and-down game this past week in his first start for the injured Drew Brees. Because of his athleticism, Hill can score on any play, but he also has the tendency to throw up some prayer balls that the Broncos could come down with to give Drew Lock and the offense some short fields to work with.

Over/Under: The betting world is expecting this to be a lower-scoring game. That is understandable with both teams showing they're stronger on the defensive side of the ball this season.

The Broncos just put together maybe their most complete defensive effort of the season vs. the Dolphins and again, the Saints have fielded arguably the best defense in the NFL through the month of November. Both teams also have leaned towards hitting the under as of recently.

The Saints have hit the under in each of their last three games while the Broncos have done so in two of their last three. The Broncos have scored 20 or more points in three of their last four games, hinting that the offense is finally starting to gain a bit of momentum to close out the season.

Consider this bet a pretty big toss-up at this point and one maybe worth monitoring the injuries closely to see who will be playing before placing any bet.

Moneyline: The money for this game is leaning heavily in favor of the Saints crushing the Broncos. Right now, the moneyline for the Saints is at -270. That means that if you bet $100, you would win $37.04.

This is not surprising considering how hot of a team the Saints are and how little Brees was factoring into New Orleans winning games. On the flip side, the Broncos are sitting at +230 meaning, that same $100 bet could win you $230 if placed on Denver.

I know this is a risky bet to make with the Broncos being so erratic, but if you're keen to bet on Denver, this might be the one to take. There is a lot of risk associated with taking the Broncos, but with Hill being such an unknown at this time and Vic Fangio's defense having some of its best games against athletic quarterbacks, I could see a couple of key turnovers leading Denver to victory.

Again, betting the moneyline on Denver would be very risky because the Saints have been winning by virtue of more than just good quarterback play with the defense being dominant over the last month.

Bottom Line

After the Broncos lost two games to fall to 3-6, it's crazy how one definitive win vaulted them right back into the mix of things. That Week 11 win gave Denver the tie-breaker against a team it could find itself needing at season's end.

The Broncos will need to sneak another win against a top-tier team to have a real chance at the playoffs but even with the Saints being an 8-2 club and red-hot in their own right, this might be Denver's best chance with it being a home game and against a backup quarterback with a penchant for making some big mistakes and struggling to read a defense.

Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.