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How Edge Rusher Market Could Impact Broncos' Decisions About Miller & Chubb

The Broncos will have some tough decisions to make in the not-too-distant future when it comes to their star pass rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. The factors Denver will consider aren't as simple as fans might think.
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Von Miller is entering the fifth year of a six-year deal he signed back in 2016. The star of the Denver Broncos defense for many years, Miller's 2019 season wasn't impressive in terms of the stats, but the stats don't completely reflect his overall play.

Still, Miller might not be in line for a third contract from the Broncos, given that the team will likely prioritize extensions for players currently under rookie contracts — and among them is fellow edge rusher Bradley Chubb.

Those future decisions beg two questions: What could an extension for Chubb look like, assuming he bounces back from injury and plays at a high level? And what future, if any, does Miller have with the Broncos?

Current Edge Rusher Market

When examining the top average-per-year salaries for edge rushers, it's important to distinguish between those who played in 4-3 schemes and who played in 3-4 schemes when they signed their extensions.

That's because 4-3 edge rushers are treated as defensive linemen and 3-4 edge rushers are treated as linebackers under the franchise tag rules. The tag is higher for defensive linemen than it is for linebackers because the latter includes off-ball linebackers who tend to get paid less than the 3-4 and 4-3 interior defenders who get included under defensive linemen.

Here's the list of the top edge rushers, in terms of APY salaries, and listed by the schemes they played when they signed their deals.

  • Khalil Mack (4-3): $23.5M APY
  • DeMarcus Lawrence (4-3): $21M APY
  • Frank Clark (4-3): $20.8M APY
  • Von Miller (3-4): $19M APY
  • Trey Flowers (4-3): $18M APY
  • Cameron Jordan (4-3): $17.5M APY
  • Dee Ford (4-3): $17M APY
  • Olivier Vernon (4-3): $17M APY
  • Arik Armstead (4-3): $17M APY
  • Za'Darius Smith (3-4): $16.5M APY
  • Chandler Jones (3-4): $16.5M APY
  • Melvin Ingram (4-3): $16M APY

Do note that the Dallas Cowboys will switch to a 3-4 scheme in 2020, but when Lawrence signed his extension last year, the Cowboys were still running a 4-3 scheme and Lawrence got paid accordingly.

You can see the advantage edge rushers get when they primarily play in a 4-3 scheme — they get the better deals. While one can argue about the talent level of 3-4 edge rushers other than Miller, they simply haven't benefited from the market the way that 4-3 edge rushers have.

There are multiple edge rushers who got the franchise tag: Yannick Ngakoue, Matt Judon, Shaquil Barrett, and Bud Dupree. Ngakoue played in a 4-3 scheme for a couple of years, but the Jacksonville Jaguars switched to a 3-4 scheme this past season, while the others have mainly played in 3-4 schemes their entire careers.

Simply put, thanks to the franchise tag, 3-4 edge rushers can be at a disadvantage when compared to their 4-3 counterparts.

What It Means for Chubb

Denver Broncos linebacker Bradley Chubb (55) during the third quarter against the Oakland Raiders at Broncos Stadium at Mile High.

Chubb is likely to face a similar situation when it comes time to extend him. The tag continues to treat all linebackers the same, so the tag will come in lower than it would if the Broncos played a 4-3 scheme.

Looking at Miller for a moment, it's worth asking whether he would have reached the contract level he did if it weren't for being named Super Bowl MVP. Unless Chubb gets a distinction like that, he may actually have to settle for less money than Miller received.

Of course, that could change if one of the edge rushers under the franchise tag manages to score a deal that approaches what Miller got. But unless that happens, Chubb might not be in a position to re-set the market the way somebody like, say, Joey Bosa might, because Bosa plays the 4-3 scheme and the tag would be higher for him.

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What It Means for Miller

Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) celebrates his 100th career sack at Empower Field at Mile High.

So does that mean there's a chance that Miller could stick around beyond 2021, which is the final year of his contract? That depends on other factors.

Let's say Miller plays at a high level, by any measure, over the next two seasons, and Chubb does the same. In all likelihood, the Broncos let Miller walk because they will have other players in line for extensions and won't want to pay another top-of-the-market deal to Miller when they aren't sure at what point his play will decline.

In other words, top-level play from Miller the next two seasons doesn't guarantee he remains a Bronco after 2021. The team will still have many decisions to make about multiple players and if the Broncos follow NFL tradition, are likely to go with younger players over Miller.

But let's say Miller plays at a high level in 2020 and he declines in 2021. There's a chance Miller could stick around if he's willing to take money that a No. 2 edge rusher would receive. A short-term deal for no more than $10M APY might be doable.

Of course, the Broncos could just as easily let Miller walk if his play declines. But the point is this: If the Broncos are in a position that they can justify giving Miller less money because the market isn't there for him, there's a better chance of them keeping Miller than if the market is there for him to get a top-dollar contract.

Bottom Line

No matter what happens, the Broncos will have important decisions to make down the road. But whatever the future brings, the team may not be faced with a situation in which it must pay a record-setting deal, like it did when it extended Miller in 2016.

The market for the 3-4 edge rusher hasn't been as kind as the one for 4-3 edge rushers. That's an issue with the franchise tag system, one that wasn't corrected when the new collective bargaining agreement was reached.

Know this, though. Important decisions will loom with Chubb and Miller down the road. Only time will tell what their futures with the Broncos will be.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle