Could One of the 'Terrific 12' Fall to Broncos at Pick 15? Here's the Truth
The week of the NFL Draft is finally here. In midst of the world's chaos right now, the NFL decided that instead of postponing the draft, the league would bring some semblance of normalcy to America and hold it virtually.
This is an unprecedented time in our society that will have very real ramifications for the draft. From players with injury concerns potential free-falling down boards because teams couldn't have their own doctors complete physicals, to the lack of groupthink that tends to occur when teams and organizations cross paths at owner’s meetings, pro days, and the like, this draft has the potential to be as unpredictable as any in history.
Despite the lack of groupthink and echo chamber in the NFL this year, this has not been the case as much with those analyzing the draft. Right or wrong, given the vast information overload that is analyzing players in the draft and the limited niche of evaluating prospects, there can be an echo chamber when it comes to how the media believes the board should fall. Sometimes the media are correct. NFL teams are the ones who ultimately dictate how the board falls.
Either way, it only takes one team to shake things up and completely change what was outside consensus a mere hours before the draft started. Take the organization previously known as the Oakland Raiders taking Clellin Ferrell at No. 4 overall just last season.
Most believed Ferrell was a mid-to-late first-rounder and yet, the Raiders took him fourth overall. It's a wise move to expect the unexpected in the draft, but for 2020, chaos to the 'nth' degree is very possible.
Consensus ‘Terrific 12’
While there is a rather wide range of opinions in regards to draft evaluations, there does seem to be a rather firm top-12 in the 2020 class at the non-quarterback positions. Quarterback always muddies things up as it can be unpredictable as anything given the value and specificity in how teams view their signal-callers, but taking that position completely out of the equation, there is a line in the sand for the top players in the draft and their fit and value to the Denver Broncos who are sitting (currently) at the 15th overall pick.
Let's take a look at the Terrific 12 and examine the odds of any one of them falling to the Broncos at pick 15.
The (Very Very Unlikely) Tantalizing Defensive Trio
Thanks in large part to the emergence of quarterback Drew Lock (and finishing the season against two horrible teams in the Detroit Lions and Raiders at home), the Broncos finished last season 4-1. In so doing, the Broncos gained some momentum heading into 2020, but also fell rapidly down the draft board.
Overall it was very likely a great thing to finish the season 4-1 under Lock, but it did drop the Broncos’ from a top-10 pick to 15 overall. This drop very likely takes the Broncos out of the elite tier players in the 2020 draft.
The most unlikely to end up a Bronco is Ohio State rush linebacker Chase Young. Perhaps the best pass-rushing prospect since Von Miller, if not equal to that of Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa, Young will not fall past the No. 3 overall pick unless he does something crazy like commit a crime this week. Young deserves to be listed, but he will not be a Bronco.
After Young, there are two additional prospects that deserve the ‘elite’ grade in the Terrific 12; Clemson back-seven player (it’s hard to name his specific position) Isaiah Simmons and Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah. Neither should escape the top-7 of the draft and it would likely cost Denver a high price to move up into range to select them.
It’s fun to dream of Simmons or Okudah in Denver, but it remains extremely unlikely. If either falls within range, John Elway and company should be calling up to assess the price in the very least as both could be defense-defining pieces for the next decade.
The Fantastic Four OTs
After Young, Simmons, and Okudah the next level of players worthy of earning a spot in the Terrific 12 are the tier-one offensive tackles. While opinion ranges widely among draftniks in regards to the exact order of the top OTs, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, Alabama’s Jedrick Wills, Jr., Louisville’s Mekhi Becton, and Georgia’s Andrew Thomas all seem to be locks to go within the first half of the first round on Thursday.
Wirfs is an absolute athletic freak setting multiple records at the NFL Combine. While a bit raw in some of the technical aspects of his game, he has incredible upside, strength, agility, and both positional and schematic versatility. If he were to fail at OT, he can be a decade-long dominant guard, which raises his floor in the NFL.
Wills dominated as Tua Tagovailoa’s blindside blocker in Tuscaloosa. Wills has an incredibly strong punch and, like Wirfs, offers elite guard ability as well, raising his floor as a prospect. There are some questions in regards to Wills’ football IQ but that could easily be a smokescreen from some team trying to push him down the board.
Thomas is perhaps the safest of the bunch. While not possessing the movement skills or pass blocking feet of any of the other top tackles, he is very clean with his technique and translation to the NFL.
In a year with potentially little preparation in regards to rookie mini-camp, OTAs, training camp, someone who is as technically refined at left and right tackle as Thomas could have more value than someone who is more upside than ready-made skill in this year’s draft class.
On the other end of Thomas is Becton. Despite some concerns in regards to body type, Becton’s size and movement skills are not coachable. Just being as long as he is makes it harder to get around him and there are few if any players with his frame that have as good of feet as Becton possesses.
He is as boom-or-bust as any OT in this class, but he could easily become the best one in 10 years from now if he lands in the correct situation with a good coach.
Any of the OT would be great for the Broncos at 15 if one fell, but it appears exceedingly unlikely that any fall to within Elway's grasp. If Denver wants one of the Terrific 12's top OTs, it likely will need to trade up.
The Big Three WRs
Despite the increasing unlikelihood of one of the top-4 wide receivers falling to Denver, it's still possible that one could. Whether it be one of the Alabama receivers in Henry Ruggs III or Jerry Jeudy, or Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, any of the 'Big Three’ WRs would be a fantastic addition to the Broncos' passing attack as all three differ from Courtland Sutton and could help bring a much-needed upgrade in dynamic ability to the team's aerial assault going forward.
Jeudy is likely the safest of the bunch given his route running and separation ability. He can play slot as well as any WR in this class and projects well as a Z-receiver.
Jeudy's ability to uncover with nuance in his routes on top of after-the-catch agility was a continuous highlight reel at Alabama. He probably has the lowest ceiling compared to Ruggs and Lamb, but Jeudy projects so cleanly to the NFL and the Broncos.
While not creating as many explosive plays for the Crimson Tide, perhaps the player that could be most valuable in the NFL is that of Ruggs. The debate for Ruggs’ value to the entire offense vs. his individual statistical output will likely rage on for whichever team’s fanbase drafts him, but he is dynamic, creates explosive plays, and scores touchdowns. His speed is unparalleled in this class and is my favorite receiver for the Broncos’ in this class.
The receiver of the ‘Big Three’ that most resembles a star NFL receiver given his physicality, ability to make ‘wow’ contested catches, and create after the catch, is Lamb. Lamb does not have the incredible speed of Ruggs nor the route savviness of Jeudy, but does everything good or better.
Lamb's transition to the NFL will likely be more difficult than Jeudy and Ruggs given Jeudy’s plug-and-play route running and Ruggs’ day-one impact via his speed, but Lamb's mix of traits and ability make me think he has a chance to be the best at being a true WR1 in this class.
Any of the 'Big Three' WRs could be there at 15, but if Elway and the Broncos truly want one of them and specifically one in particular, the team will likely need to trade up as it seems very possible all three receivers come off the board in picks 11-13.
The Towering Two Interior DL
The final of the Terrific 12 is made up from two incredibly talented interior defensive linemen in Auburn’s Derrick Brown and South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw. The Broncos do not ‘need’ an interior DL as the roster currently stands but given the talent level of these two, Denver would have no choice but to consider the player if left on the board at 15 overall.
Brown was considered the best DL as the season closed after having a fantastic season for the Tigers. However the further we've gotten from the season, the more he has slipped.
After a mediocre Combine (if not worse) and teams nitpicking the value of a 1-technique who is more of a run-stuffer and gap-clogger than a pass-rusher, Brown appeared to be somewhat slipping. However, it still would be surprising if he fell out of the top-10 given his base and sub-package usage and versatility.
Kinlaw is a player with unmatched upside rushing the QB from the inside. His athleticism-to-frame has folks comparing him to the likes of Kansas City's Chris Jones, who has quickly become one of the best interior players in the entire NFL, arguably only behind Aaron Donald.
Kinlaw is still a bit raw and there are medical concerns with him that make him seem a bit risky as a pick, but the rare traits and interior pass rusher upside are easily worth a top-15 pick.
Neither Brown or Kinlaw would give Denver an offensive boost like many are clamoring for the Broncos to select at 15, but both offer a long-term blue-chip-caliber prospect that would only amplify the impact of Miller, Bradley Chubb, and Fangio's potentially fantastic defense.
The Catch… the QBs MUST Go
With the 15th pick, the Broncos have a really good chance at landing one of these top-12 players, thanks in large part to the demand of quarterback. It is a given that LSU’s Joe Burrow comes off the board before Denver picks, but after that, the situation becomes murky.
Oregon's Justin Herbert has all the tools and had a solid week down in Mobile at the Senior Bowl. His tape is inconsistent, though, with red flags in regards to his accuracy and ability to handle pressure and create. It would seem likely he goes top-10, but many were saying the same about Drew Lock last year. Things happen.
The player that is the hardest to peg in the draft is likely Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. He likely would have been in the discussion for the first overall pick if not for suffering a myriad of injuries over his collegiate career.
However, the injury makes him an absolute wildcard. Many have pegged him going no later than pick No. 5 to the Dolphins but recent rumors have Miami passing on Tua, which could lead to a slide down the board.
The Broncos can simply stand pat and be in a great situation in the 2020 draft. Sitting at the 15th overall gives Denver a lot of leverage and flexibility. Either one of the Terrific 12 falls to Denver at 15 or a QB falls to 15 where Denver will very likely be a motivated seller with plenty of teams willing to move up for one of Herbert or Tagovailoa (or Utah State’s Jordan Love because the QB market is always wild on draft day).
There also is a chance that more than one of the Terrific 12 or top-3 QBs are on the board when Denver picks at 15. Like Jeremiah stated, the media’s outlook vs. what actual NFL teams are thinking internally are as divided as he can remember in his time covering the draft.
A number of players such as LSU WR Justin Jefferson, USC OT Austin Jackson, Boise State OT Ezra Cleveland, LSU RLB K’Lavon Chaisson, Florida CB CJ Henderson (whom I like in a vacuum but do not like for the Broncos’ defense), or Georgia RB D’Andre Swift could all hear their name called before Denver is on the clock at 15.
What Happens on Thursday? Nobody Knows
If that happens, Broncos Country will rejoice. However, if the Broncos are the team that ‘reaches’ in comparison to the medias’ current slotting of the board (imagine Denver taking Jefferson with Jeudy still on the board), then Broncos Country could revolt. Both are equally possible as the draft is unpredictable and that's what makes it must-see TV.
If Elway is patient and ‘fine’ with any of the Terrific 12 falling to them at 15, the Broncos can simply sit back and let the board come to them — all while keeping their excess of picks in the top-100 (five selections). However, if the Broncos have a more specific board where only a number of players in that terrific 12 makes sense to them, Elway can use some of that ‘house’ money the team accumulated from trading back in the 2019 draft and the from the Emmanuel Sanders trade to move up and get ‘their guy’ (if the price is right).
In a normal draft, very few (if any) actually know the direction a team will go until that team is on the clock in the draft. However, with this draft being an unprecedented event given the state for the world, the unexpected will likely take place at a level not seen in previous years.
I can’t speak for everyone, but if the Broncos can sit back and land any of the ‘Terrific 12’ at 15, I wouldn’t complain one bit.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
