How Niners-Dolphins Blockbuster Top-10 Trade Reshaped Broncos' QB Draft Position
Just like that, the NFL world has changed.
Much like how the NFL draft landscape completely changed in 2018 when the New York Jets leapfrogged the Denver Broncos to move from pick No. 6 to pick No. 3 in a trade with the Indianapolis Colts — back when John Elway possessed 'heart eyes' for Sam Darnold — the San Francisco 49ers just made a deal moving from pick No. 12 to No. 3 in the 2021 draft in a trade with the Miami Dolphins.
The Niners are moving up for a quarterback.
The Dolphins moved down to pick No. 12 and back up to No. 6 with a companion trade with the Philadelphia Eagles, after having just recently spent a top-5 pick on QB Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 and with everything on standstill in regards to Deshaun Watson (sexual misconduct allegations).
Moving down from No. 3 to No. 12 and back up to No. 6 puts the Dolphins back in range to select a blue-chip talent like Oregon OT Penei Sewell, Florida TE Kyle Pitts, or one of this year’s 'big 3' at wide receiver in Alabama's Jalen Waddle, Devonta Smith, or LSU's Ja’Marr Chase.
Where do These Tectonic Trades Leave Denver?
It depends on how the Broncos truly view Drew Lock. Denver is now in a weird position of having no immediate, pressing roster needs while also still being a team not considered to be much more than an afterthought on the NFL landscape.
The national perspective on the Broncos is informed, in part, by the quarterback position, especially in comparison to divisional foes of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. However, the Broncos still may yet make a move for a quarterback.
The first three picks in the draft are being written in pen now, with Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence going No. 1 overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Zach Wilson to the New York Jets at No. 2, and Trey Lance to the Niners at pick No. 3. The Niners may also be considering QBs like Alabama's Mac Jones or Ohio State's Justin Fields, but the odds-on favorite would have to be Lance given the current league consensus.
All Eyes Fall on the Atlanta Falcons at Pick No. 4
Will the Falcons take a quarterback or rather trade back from No. 4 to a team looking to move up? Given that the Falcons just restructured the contract of long-time QB Matt Ryan, some might suggest it doesn't make sense for Atlanta to go for a signal-caller.
However, given how rare the top of this quarterback class is talent-wise, and how valuable having a cost-controlled quarterback is in today’s NFL, perhaps Atlanta will think big picture and take a quarterback under a new general manager and head coach combo that the team would not have a chance at in the future.
Is it possible that quarterbacks go picks No. 1-2-3-4 for the first time in NFL history? Not only does that seem possible but it appears increasingly likely. The teams picking in the mid-to-late first round of this draft essentially tossed in the towel in the form of the Chicago Bears signing Andy Dalton and the Washington Football Team going with Ryan Fitzpatrick, leaving them in a kind of quarterback purgatory.
The purgatory teams serve as a fair warning for the Broncos given the strength of the current roster heading into 2021 even if Lock is a bottom-5 quarterback in the NFL again next season. Given how teams are starting to understand just how valuable a cost-controlled rookie quarterback is, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that signal-callers coming off the board even earlier than in years past and more clustered at the top doesn't become a trend.
Any Doubts About the Incumbent? Go Get Your QB
If you're near the top and have any questions about your QB, the time to move up is now because there are no guarantees you will be close enough the following year. Denver may have missed that boat already by virtue of Friday's flurry of blockbuster draft trades.
With the price the Niners just paid, the Jets turning down trade offers for No. 2 overall (they're going QB), all signs point to the NFL hive mind thinking the 2022 quarterback class is decrepit in comparison to the top of its 2021 counterpart.
So now what does Denver do? It really depends on what happens with Atlanta at No. 4 overall. If a quarterback Denver likes out of the 'big four' (or 'big five' depending on who you ask) is there with Atlanta’s current draft slot and the Falcons are willing to trade, the Broncos could make a strong push.
One of Fields, Lance, or Jones Within Denver's Reach
USA TODAY Sports
Essentially, Denver can take Lawrence and Wilson off the board, but one of Fields, Lance, or Jones will be there at No. 4. If Atlanta is not willing to move off No. 4 or Denver doesn’t find the price amenable, the Broncos should hope and pray that either Sewell or Pitts falls to No. 9 as the only blue-chip prospects in this class.
That's unlikely to happen but given Sewell’s one year of tape at Oregon and some in the league preferring Northwestern OT Rashaun Slater, as well as the tight end Pitts playing a ‘devalued’ position, those two could get pushed farther down the board. If either is there pick No. 9, Paton shouldn’t overthink it.
Expect a Trade-Down if 'Big Four' are Gone
However, what fans are more likely to see are the Broncos trading down, provided GM George Paton can find a willing partner. That would take another team looking to want to trade up for that to happen and Dever trading down is more viable in theory than in reality, but that should be what Paton hopes in that scenario.
In a trade down, the Broncos will not likely get the value in return that the Dolphins just got, especially if the trade does not involve a team going up for QB (unlikely given how much Carolina wants one at pick No. 8). What would the Broncos’ target in a trade down?
Focus on the Future
Given how well Paton has filled out the 2021 roster, the eye should turn towards 2022 where the Broncos have a number of players set to hit free agency. Veterans like Von Miller, Bryce Callahan, Kareem Jackson, Kyle Fuller, Josey Jewell, Alexander Johnson, Melvin Gordon, and (very likely given his injury history and contract structure) Ja’Wuan James could be moving on next year.
This means in a trade down, the Broncos can plan for the future by targeting positions of value and plugging in holes preemptively a year before they're exposed; specifically targeting edge rusher, offensive tackle, and cornerback given those are three of the highest-paid positions in the NFL and typically prospects playing those spots take a year to learn the game anyways.
Not having to depend on a edge rusher, tackle, or corner in their rookie year and having them ready to go (and cheap with four years of control left) is simply a good long-term roster-building strategy. In reality, the Broncos are in a concerning spot now.
Despite Statistical Improbability, Lock Could Still Turn the Corner
It would take a historical turnaround and an outlier start to his career for Lock to develop and ultimately emerge into the quarterback the Broncos need in order to be true contenders. Sure, the Broncos could be good for one year with this defense but defenses year-to-year are volatile.
Look no further than how the years that followed the 2018 Bears, 2017 Jaguars, and 2019 Niners worked out for them. Great defenses regress to the mean quickly.
Without a quarterback, a team's window closes in a blink, which is why originally picking at No. 12 in a top-heavy quarterback class, the Niners were willing to pay such a big price to trade up and get an elite prospect with five years of cost-control at the position.
Bottom Line
Paton has done a great job so far this offseason filling out the Broncos’ roster, but life in today’s NFL without a top-5 quarterback (or a top-10-15 quarterback on a rookie contract) is the equivalent to football nihilism. Without the quarterback crossing a certain threshold, your team does not factor into the big NFL picture.
It’s a 'have or have not' league at quarterback and if you don’t have The Guy, good luck.
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