Colin Cowherd Defends Drew Lock on ESPN's ReDraft, Makes Extremely Bold Prediction
Earlier this week, ESPN published a redraft with only current NFL players in the pool. Long-time Denver beat reporter Jeff Legwold made all four of the Broncos' picks.
The draft order mirrored the 2020 draft, with the exception that after each round, it snaked — like a fantasy draft. In real life, the Broncos held pick No. 15 this past April, selecting Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy. In this redraft, Legwold had the pick of almost the entire league (minus 14 previously picked player) and his decision for the Broncos? Drew Lock.
Suffice to say, Legwold has received a fair amount of criticism for drafting Lock at a position that basically amounts to calling him the 15th-best player in the league. Pro Football Focus, for example, was highly critical and dismissive of Legwold's decision, saying that "Drew Lock's mom doesn't take him 15th overall in that draft."
I've said all that I plan to about PFF's criticism of Lock (read here). But I wasn't the only one in the media who came out in defense of the Broncos' young quarterback.
Colin Cowherd, the nationally syndicated radio host of The Herd, came out in support of Lock in force. Cowherd has been saying good things about Lock since his rookie season ended. But in his analysis of the ESPN redraft and the criticism of Lock, Cowherd weighed in and even doubled down on a very bold prediction.
"So the ESPN thing got a lot of heat. People said, 'Oh, it's ridiculous. Oh, it's terrible.' It is what it is. It's a list. Everybody's got opinions," Cowherd said. "But the one thing I did think was interesting that ESPN got heat for, and I don't think they're wrong—the reality is, people don't like blowback, so people say things that are convenient or obvious so nobody gets push-back. They put Drew Lock as the 15th player drafted—the Denver quarterback. Now, people were like, 'He's getting drafted over Matt Ryan, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Sam Darnold—blah, blah, blah.' I just want to remind you of something, let's pretend we're all scouts here and we're trying to predict the future of athletes. So, the last two years, a quarterback has won MVP in his second year. It should be three years but Carson Wentz got hurt late."
Cowherd set the stage and then built his case on why he believes Lock is primed to be the next second-year QB to take the NFL by storm and vy for the MVP award.
"So let's go to [Patrick] Mahomes', Wentz, and Lamar Jackson's rookie-year stats," Cowherd said. "Mahomes played in one game, no touchdowns, a pick, 76 quarterback rating. That was Mahomes' rookie year. He then won the MVP, so he did nothing in his rookie year. Carson Wentz's rookie year, 16 touchdowns, 14 picks, a 79 passer rating. Barely completed 62% of his throws. The following year, leading candidate MVP until he got hurt. Lamar Jackson's first year in the league—six touchdowns, three picks, 58 completion percentage, struggled completing passes, passer rating 84. They all made massive jumps to year two—to not just be good players, to be MVPs. Like, the most valuable player in the league. So go to Drew Lock's rookie year, like Lamar Jackson, doesn't get a chance until late. His numbers: over a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, seven TDs, three picks, 64% completion rate—better than Mahomes, better than Wentz, better than Jackson. And his quarterback rating, rounded up, to 90. He's got better stats than all of them."
Interesting observations. Cowherd's statistical analysis rebuts perfectly PFF's 'lack of sample size' criticism by comparing Lock's rookie production to that of the recent second-year stud QBs. However, Cowherd wasn't done bolstering his case for Lock.
"And Denver, because of smart drafting, has two good running backs, three excellent young receivers, and I believe a Pro Bowl-potential tight end—and a defensive coach that keeps them in every game," Cowherd said. "So I don't think Drew Lock at 15 is outrageous. Most of the list was just—it's a list. I think he's the pop guy in the league this year. I think Wentz popped, Lamar popped, Mahomes popped—I think it's him... I think he's a huge talent and that's why I've said this year, you know in the NFL, somebody's going to win a division and we're going to be shocked. Don't be shocked if Denver beats Kansas City."
You've got to hand it to him; Cowherd has cashews. He's going out on a limb by not only predicting Lock to "pop" and play at an MVP level this year but in so doing, dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West.
An interesting take and one that should excite and encourage Broncos Country, which has been somewhat punch-drunk from the Lock hate online all week. Cowherd isn't wrong about all the stars aligning for Lock.
GM John Elway built the nest around Lock offensively and rebuilt the interior O-line. Meanwhile, Vic Fangio's defense is poised to take a massive leap forward in Year 2 while the Broncos brought in one of the most respected and coveted OC/QBs Coach duos in Pat Shurmur and Mike Shula to shepherd Lock.
It's going to be fun to see how it all plays out. What are your predictions for Lock? Is Cowherd onto something? Or are you more inclined to agree with PFF that the Lock 'hype' is out of control? Sound off in the comment section below!
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
