Another National Pundit Disrespects Broncos' QB Drew Lock
Last week, we here at Mile High Huddle had to tamp down a botched quarterback ranking by NFL.com. Although it pains us to do so, we must again lay bare the misguided musings of an even worse ranking and show of disrespect for Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos, this time coming from SI's Conor Orr.
Let it be known upfront, though. We bear no ill will toward Orr. He's a fine national writer. But everyone in this business has a bad take every now and again.
There are, of course, 32 teams in the NFL. According to Orr, the Broncos possess the 29th-best quarterback situation. Yes, you read that right. It's actually two spots lower than Gregg Rosenthal's No. 27 ranking of Lock and company. Here's what Orr said.
29. Denver Broncos
Depth chart: Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien
Drew Lock is beloved by the Broncos fan base, perhaps with good reason. I think the sample size is still too small and am not a huge fan of the coordinator change. Rich Scangarello, now with the Eagles, works well with young quarterbacks and helped steer the offense down the stretch.
Why he's Wrong
The sample size was too small, eh? It's a fair point, so long as sample size is used as a consistent barometer in the analysis. But I wonder how closely Orr watched Lock during his five-game audition to end last season.
There is such a thing as quality over quantity. Kyler Murray started all 16 games as a rookie. He flashed at times and showed growth. But the best he could muster was a winning percentage of .313. Atrocious. And yet, Orr ranks the Arizona Cardinals' QB situation as No. 10. You read that right.
Daniel Jones in New York started 12 games but his winning percentage was even worse than Murray's at a god-awful .250. Orr's ranking of the Giants' QB situation? 26, which isn't great but it's higher than the Broncos.
What about Minshew mania? Gardner Minshew at least at the tenacity to produce a .500 winning percentage in 12 starts for Jacksonville. The Jaguars' ranking, according to Orr, is dead last. So, the rationale doesn't hit the mark, in my estimation.
Dwayne Haskins and the Washington Redskins are ranked No. 31, behind Lock and the Broncos. Haskins produced a paltry .285 winning percentage and struggled mightily to elevate a Redskins' roster facing a dearth of talent. This ranking is apropos.
Meanwhile, Lock's winning percentage was the best among all rookie QBs last year — .800. It's absolutely crucial to point out that unlike any of his fellow 2019 rookie signal-callers, Lock's impact translated to the win column.
In five starts, Lock went 4-1, finishing with 1,020 passing yards, a completion percentage of 64.1 and a TD-to-INT ratio of 7-3. Extrapolate those numbers over the course of an entire season and Lock was on pace to produce 3,264 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and about 10 picks. Transcendent numbers? No. More than solid for a rookie? You bet your hindquarters.
Shurmur > Scangarello
Anyone who paid attention to the Broncos last year came away significantly concerned by Rich Scangarello's play-calling wherewithal. Where Scangarello excelled as a teacher he failed miserably as a tactician and play-designer, especially on third down and in the red zone.
Meanwhile, Pat Shurmur's QB-developer roots run much deeper and he has more than Nick Mullens to hang his hat on. Even Daniel Jones, who turned the ball over at a Jameis Winston-like rate as a rookie, produced a whopping 24 touchdowns under Shurmur's tutelage (and that of Mike Shula — Denver's new QBs Coach).
Shurmur even got the last efficient season out of Eli Manning in 2018 before Father Time completely sapped him of his ability. Manning completed a career-best 66.0 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions.
Look at what Shurmur got out of Case Keenum in Minnesota back in 2017. I could go back farther to Nick Foles' Pro Bowl campaign in 2013 and even all the way back to Donovan McNabb but I digress.
If sample size is so critical to Orr, all due respect, Shurmur's resume should out-weigh that of Scangarello when trying to project how it might impact the Broncos' QB situation in 2020. Consistency in our analysis is key, after all. Shurmur might not be a good head coach but that doesn't make him a bad OC.
Scangarello is entering just his sixth NFL season as a coach and was fired after year one as the Broncos' OC after leading the offense to a No. 28 finish in total yards and scoring, while ending ranked 30th and 28th in third-down and red-zone efficiency, respectively.
Shurmur brings 21 years to the table with most of that experience coming as either a head coach or offensive coordinator. It's not even close.
Lock is the Modern Rodney Dangerfield
It'll be fun to see the U-turn the national writers will make when Lock continues to win and raise all boats in the Mile High City. The kid, for whatever reason, 'can't get no respect, no respect at all!'
Lock doesn't need to have a Mahomes or Jackson-esque year two to prove these national narratives wrong. My theory is that it's a confirmation bias of sorts. National pundits see that Lock fell out of the first round, so there must be a reason for that, right?
It's unfortunate that Lock's tumble is overshadowing his impressive rookie performance because the truth is, he absolutely oozed franchise traits from Week 13-17. But only he can change that narrative and more time on task ought to do the trick.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
