Analyzing Which Broncos on Rookie Contracts Provided Biggest Return on Investment in 2020
Last week, I examined Denver Broncos veteran contracts and the Over the Cap valuation on each, to determine how much value those players represented to the team. Today, I'll examine the Broncos' players under rookie contracts and their value, but this comes with a couple of important notes.
First, the rookie contracts are set in stone for the most part. Undrafted players can negotiate some terms but not a lot. But in most cases, the amount a player signs for is set by the NFL CBA, not by the team.
Second, I want to compare the OTC player valuation to what players at that position typically receive when they sign veteran contracts because, while any rookie contract salary looks like a good deal if the player performs well, it may not be that good when compared to veteran salaries.
For example: Suppose you have a player on a rookie contract who makes $1 million and has an OTC valuation of $12M. If that player is an off-ball linebacker, then the valuation is comparable to what veterans at the position typically receive, and thus the team truly gets a good deal.
However, if the player in question is a quarterback, it's not as good of a deal as it appears because $12M represents the average salary for a top backup who can start if need be. Average starters, meanwhile, can expect above $20M, even above $25M, per year in free agency.
With that in mind, let's examine the more notable players on rookie contracts. I won't go over them all, but focus on starters and key contributors.
They are listed by the cash spent on the player this year, the OTC valuation, and a veteran at the position with an average-per-year salary that is comparable to the OTC valuation.
Bradley Chubb, OLB
2020 cash spent: $3.05M
OTC valuation: $10.7M
Veteran comparison: Jerry Hughes, $10.75M
Chubb's valuation falls in line with what you would expect a second-tier pass rusher to make. That's why it makes sense to exercise his fifth-year option.
A long-term deal is another story. Chubb would likely want to get close to the top tier, meaning he needs to perform at a higher level to show he's worthy of such a deal.
So, even though I believe the fifth-year option should be exercised, it's too soon to talk extension. Let's see what he does in 2021, then the Broncos can go from there.
Noah Fant, TE
2020 cash spent: $1.1M
OTC valuation: $8.9M
Veteran comparison: Rob Gronkowski, $9M
Fant has steadily improved since his rookie season and his valuation is in line with what a second-tier tight end receives.
Of course, some context is necessary with Gronk, who signed his deal several seasons ago, and that deal remained in effect when he came out of retirement and was traded to Tampa Bay.
Still, I would put Gronk as a second-tier tight end at this stage of his career. Fant performed at that level, so the Broncos are getting good value. If Fant takes the next steps and gets into the top tier of tight ends in 2021, that's all the better.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
2020 cash spent: $9M
OTC valuation: $7.6M
Veteran comparison: Julian Edelman, $7.75M
Context is needed both for Jeudy, who collected his signing bonus this season, and Edelman, who has taken value deals with the Patriots.
But I think Jeudy delivered about what was expected from a value standpoint, and for what rookies WRs typically show their first seasons.
Next season, the Broncos will want to see Jeudy get to that next level, meaning we should expect a valuation of about $14M. And considering that he'll collect just $1.3M in cash next year, a performance valued at $14M would make it a great deal.
Dalton Risner, OG
2020 cash spent: $819,000
OTC valuation: $7.5M
Veteran comparison: Richie Incognito: $6.35M
I don't have a good comparison for Risner, but his valuation falls in line with what a second-tier guard would receive. Incognito was arguably that in his prime.
For Risner to get stronger consideration for a future extension, the Broncos will want to see him play at top-tier level. Such guards get $11M or more in APY salary.
If Risner gets his valuation closer to $11M, an extension might be in the cards for him.
Drew Lock, QB
2020 cash spent: $813,000
OTC valuation: $14.6M
Veteran comparison: Taysom Hill, $10.5M
On one hand, you look at Lock's valuation compared to his salary and think it's a good deal. On the other hand, the lowest-paid veteran starter is Teddy Bridgewater at $21M APY.
Hill is a backup and gadget player. If that's the closest comparison to Lock's valuation, that's not good.
For more perspective, Justin Herbert, the top rookie QB, has an OTC valuation of more than $31M, putting him in line with what a good starting QB would easily exceed.
In other words, if you want Lock to be the guy, you want to see his OTC valuation go up past $30M. Sure, it means more money spent in the future, but you know you have your guy.
If Lock stays at $14.6M, you don't have your guy. It's as simple as that.
Dre'Mont Jones, ID
2020 cash spent: $685,000
OTC valuation: $7.6M
Veteran comparison: Brandon Williams, $7.875M
Despite missing some time with injuries, Jones did well for himself, though his OTC valuation isn't close to the top tier, which exceeds $15M.
Still, Jones was in his second season and has a chance to raise his stock. If he gets his valuation up to $11M next year, that puts him in line with the second tier and he'd be worth such an extension.
If he gets closer to the top tier, though, it may be hard to keep him around. The good news is the Broncos have him for two more seasons and can take their time evaluating him.
Tim Patrick, WR
2020 cash spent: $750,000
OTC valuation: $8.2M
Veteran comparison: Emmanuel Sanders, $8M
After Courtland Sutton was lost to injury, Patrick took on a bigger role and delivered, putting up a valuation that's in line with second-tier WRs such as Sanders.
While he would be worth the second-round tender, the fact that Patrick showed he is worthy of more money, and the possibility that he'll want to start, is why the Broncos might have to tender, then trade him.
We'll see if that's what the Broncos decide to do, but Patrick's situation is one to watch.
Josey Jewell, LB
2020 cash spent: $750,000
OTC valuation: $9.5M
Veteran comparison: Demario Davis, $9M
Jewell found his niche as a good run defender, even if his coverage skills aren't where they need to be. But his valuation would put him in line for the type of deal Todd Davis once received, only for more money.
I wouldn't rush into an extension for Jewell — the Broncos can see what he does in 2021. But if he keeps playing well, and will take a contract in line for what he's worth, I would get that contract done.
Alexander Johnson, LB
2020 cash spent: $750,000
OTC valuation: $11.3M
Veteran comparison: Cory Littleton, $11.75M
Johnson's valuation puts him in line with what the top free agents got during the 2020 offseason. Where you place them on the tier depends on your viewpoint, though.
Littleton was a better value than, say, Kwon Alexander, one off-ball linebacker who re-set the market in 2019. If you think that's what a top free agent should get in 2021, then it would seem reasonable to offer Johnson that money, too.
However, I wouldn't rush too quickly to an extension, because Johnson's age (he's currently 29) is an issue. There's also the question about what happens if there's a coaching change in 2021, which would mean a new defensive coordinator, and, thus, questions if Johnson would fit the scheme.
There's no sign that the off-ball linebacker market will get re-set in 2021, so it should be safe to tender Johnson, then evaluate after 2021 about whether he should get a new deal.
Lloyd Cushenberry, C
2020 cash spent: $1.55M
OTC valuation: $3.3M
Veteran comparison: Ted Karras, $3M
Cushenberry struggled most of his rookie season, and his valuation fell in line with what Karras got on a one-year deal.
However, Karras had a valuation of $9.8M, which puts him in the second tier of centers. Compare that to his salary, which is in line with what a replacement player would get.
In other words, it's clear Cushenberry has more to work to do. But with second-tier centers getting about $9M APY, you have an indicator of the level of valuation needed from Cushenberry to stick around for the long term.
Michael Ojemudia, CB
2020 cash spent: $1.6M
OTC valuation: $2.74M
Veteran comparison: Troy Hill, $2.6M
Ojemudia went through growing pains, particularly when he had to play a bigger role after other cornerbacks went down with injuries.
Hill is the closest veteran comparison and he signed a two-year deal in 2019. He's also 30 years old, so he's the type of player you expect to sign a contract for depth money.
And that was what Ojemudia's valuation came around. Time will tell if he improves. For comparison, second-tier cornerbacks exceed $10M APY, so Ojemudia has plenty of work ahead.
Malik Reed, OLB
2020 cash spent: $675,000
OTC valuation: $8.4M
Veteran comparison: Carl Nassib, $8.3M
Nassib was used as a rotational player and some might argue he was an overpay. Reed, on the other hand, took a bigger role with Von Miller out of the lineup and gave the Broncos plenty in return.
Only time will tell how much Reed improves and if he emerges into a starter down the road. For now, the Broncos can be happy that they are getting great value here.
The Broncos won't talk extension this offseason, even if they may do so under the CBA. Expect Reed to stick around, though, and if he keeps raising his level of play, he'll get a restricted free agent tender in 2022 and -- who knows -- he might get an extension on top of that.
Other Players
KJ Hamler and Phillip Lindsay missed multiple games with injuries and thus didn't deliver much value in return. However, Lindsay should still get a second-round restricted free agent tender, though he won't get an extension.
Meanwhile, Hamler still has three years left on his rookie deal and he showed some promise. We'll see what he does in 2021.
Also, Courtland Sutton missed the bulk of the season with a torn ACL. However, if he can come back strong in 2021 like I expect, the Broncos will have to consider an extension for him.
There were others I could have examined, but these were the most notable contributors in 2020. Regardless of the value they delivered this past season, only time will tell if any of them prove they are worth that second contract.
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